Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

[quote MRex]@herecomesthsun - please be logical. Children are supposed to be in a class bubble in primary, even if they all were infected that's 2 teachers max, so how did the other 19 staff members get infected - adults. That is therefore how this spread, adults.[/quote]
We don’t know that though, unless all of the children have been tested and found to be negative. Did that happen, or were they just not tested? We know that children are often asymptomatic.

@MRex

• aerosol?

-toilets -corridor -party?

we don't know enough about this.

You would need whole school testing and some complex lab detective work to get a good idea.

I'm sure that isn't happening.

Whilst we're on the subject of the school in Dundee.

Can anyone shed light on why BBC states this:

''Anyone who lives with a pupil at the school has also been asked to self-isolate for 14 days, unless they can maintain physical distancing within the house. ''

It's not usually the case that anyone who lives with someone who is self isolating (without symptoms) has to self isolate, so why have they been told to do so in this case? Does anyone know?

I was confused by that too. But the same thing happened with Greencore so I guess an outbreak reaches a certain critical mass.

The cynic in me says it is cos they can't be bothered/ can't afford to do a mass testing.

@Shitfuckoh - ok, so a child infects 5 teachers in their bubble. Now who infected the other 16 staff please? Everyone needs to be cautious, and children can of course infect adults, but they have been shown by study after study to be less infectious. If people continue to spread an unprovable and unlikely tale that it is uninfected super-spreading children causing infection while ignoring logic of actual infection paths, they are denying that it is the behaviour of the adults drving these bigger clusters. When people are looking in the wrong place for their risks, they do not take the correct precautions. These false narratives may therefore be actually dangerous to teachers and other school staff.

@herecomesthsun - again, we can look at lots of other research that shows fomite risk is vanishingly small and aerosol risk is low unless in the same room. All 16 of the other staff haven't all used the same toilet within moments of that one child using it, most toilet risk is largely theoretical based on trapped air. People are catching this virus by being in the same air space or very near to someone for 15+ minutes. Being aware of real risk is what will help get on top of infections.

[quote MRex]@Shitfuckoh - ok, so a child infects 5 teachers in their bubble. Now who infected the other 16 staff please? Everyone needs to be cautious, and children can of course infect adults, but they have been shown by study after study to be less infectious. If people continue to spread an unprovable and unlikely tale that it is uninfected super-spreading children causing infection while ignoring logic of actual infection paths, they are denying that it is the behaviour of the adults drving these bigger clusters. When people are looking in the wrong place for their risks, they do not take the correct precautions. These false narratives may therefore be actually dangerous to teachers and other school staff.[/quote]
@MRex Sorry, I was just stating that Special Schools usually have higher staff numbers. I wasn't disagreeing about it likely being more adult spread.

To be honest, the fact that as of Friday evening the cases linked were up to 38, when we were led to believe Scotland had lower case numbers than England is worrying to me - regardless of how it was spread.
That school (although I'm aware there's thousands in Scotland still open) has had to close and 185 families (of just the Pupils) have been told to self isolate. That to me is too big of a knock on effect for it to be ignored.

Thanks @Shitfuckoh, I agree it needs close attention with so many cases. I just wish the messaging about it was clearer. So many schools about to go back and it's frustrating to see the lack of clarity that says "you'll more likely catch it from the adults, be careful even when they're your best mate".

The guidance says that all adults can work across all bubbles which highlights the ridiculousness of calling them bubbles really!

@Appuskidu

The guidance says that all adults can work across all bubbles which highlights the ridiculousness of calling them bubbles really!

I guess it's a way of the Government not having to give schools any extra funding. Usually teachers (in Secondary) teach across all year groups don't they, so it would mean 5 extra teachers per each teacher currently on payroll?

Mine are primary - Mainstream & Special school. Mainstream school had I think 3 or 4 TAs last year and all of them were back & forth. 2 hours in 1 class, 1 hour in another for example.
So if that is still allowed to continue & if 1 TA is positive but not yet showing symptoms, then she could technically infect 4 other teachers in 1 day.
Even the Special school share staff when needed.

I’m primary-so all teachers, TAs, SLT, MDAs, volunteers, visitors, specialists and clinicians can all travel across all bubbles as per the government guidelines.

School staff can move between bubbles, but the risk assessment lists as essential "formal consideration of how to reduce contacts and maximise distancing between those in school wherever possible and minimise the potential for contamination so far as is reasonably practicable" (www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools#main-changes-since-this-guidance-was-last-updated). No child has to take 21 specialist subjects at primary school.

I remember having an issue getting DD flu jab when she was in Reception.

Under 5's GP. Year 1 and above school.

The system couldn't cope with a 5 year old in Reception.

GP did eventually do it bit only after they had looked at rules and realised she wouldn't get it in school.

Hope there is none of this crap this year. I followed it up at the time but we don't want anyone falling through the cracks.

Sen primary here. I teach ppa. (I cover Staff planning and prep time)

It's mostly 1 teacher and 2 TAs per class, around 5-12 pupils per class. (We may have limited to 10, I need to check.)

We've bubbled two classes together as staff sometimes need to support across classes. I teach across 3 bubbles each week. 7 adults per week, 13 over a fortnight.

I'm part time too. But full time staff are all class based.

I hadn't calculated the 4 class teachers I'm covering for into that.

I'm primary. My bubble is 3 classes. I am class based but as all the children need to be supervised at break, I will be out with all 3 classes. Furthermore, they will of necessity have to use the same entrance and cloakroom. On top of that, all staff come through the same keypad entrance at start of day, use the same photocopier and have a grand total of 2 toilets. I have no TA although I forsee that there will SLT / Class contact as one pupil is regularly aggressive and requires handling and removing as part of their risk reduction plan. Even with the staffroom shut, there are still contact points.

@MRex

Now *@whatsnext2*, let's look at evidence on Dundee, a big outbreak. So far we have 21 teachers / other staff, 10 other community transmission and 3 pupils at 2 different schools; given that one of those pupils is said to be connected, we can presume a relative from the other school and it's known that living in a household is highest risk. Logically, do you really think one of those 2 children in the first school has had contact with 21 members of staff plus infected 1 classmate, yet infected no other children? Really, you think that one child is logically the source rather than any of the adults? What's happened here is that there has been transmission between adults. The fact it's in a school is incidental, but given this has happened multiple times now it's clear schools need better approaches in keeping their staff safe from each other.

@MRex ‘arguably’ Sars - your opinion not data then?

Again there seems to be a lot of supposition in your post above too.

It could equally be true that tests that were calibrated on symptomatic adults don’t pick up infections in asymptomatic children effectively.

I hope you’re right and it was teachers not observing SD.

@Firefliess

Under 16s can only get the flu vaccine from a GP not a pharmacy. (They can also have the one you swallow on a sugar cube rather than the injection like adults get)

Ours get the flu vaccine from a nurse that comes into school. It’s squirted up their nose.

@whatsnext2 - genetically it's 79% the same, which is higher than it's similarity with other types of known coronavirus such as the common cold. Not all diseases will have been sequenced and the impact of which elements vary could be debated by scientists, hence my caveat "arguably" that you misunderstood. I am not saying things at random, I am summarising scientific facts from research papers I have read.

*its not it's (annoying phone auto-incorrect)

[quote MRex]@whatsnext2 - genetically it's 79% the same, which is higher than it's similarity with other types of known coronavirus such as the common cold. Not all diseases will have been sequenced and the impact of which elements vary could be debated by scientists, hence my caveat "arguably" that you misunderstood. I am not saying things at random, I am summarising scientific facts from research papers I have read.[/quote]
@MRex I too read research papers , and don't say things randomly either. Transmission vectors are similiar with all coronavirus mainly droplet. It's IFR is certainly different to it's closest genetic cousin thank heavens.

1,715 cases today, though they seem quite spread over specimen dates. But a larger number than we've had since early June.

Frustratingly no update on testing, so little context there and of course no hospital data as it's a weekend.

1 death announced.

Sorry to not contribute facts and figures but does @MRex that figure mean that most people catch covid from droplets?

So on a personal level keeping distance and masks, hand washing is enough to significantly lower your risk. (slightly worried teacher returning to classrooms)

[quote MRex]@herecomesthsun - again, we can look at lots of other research that shows fomite risk is vanishingly small and aerosol risk is low unless in the same room. All 16 of the other staff haven't all used the same toilet within moments of that one child using it, most toilet risk is largely theoretical based on trapped air. People are catching this virus by being in the same air space or very near to someone for 15+ minutes. Being aware of real risk is what will help get on top of infections.[/quote]
Absolutely. There is a real risk of children transmitting this infection (especially teens, but I don't know the ages here.) It is specious to pretend this couldn't happen.

You don't know how these infections occurred. Unless all the children in the school have been tested, we don't know the upper limit of how many children were infected. There are too many unknowns.

@RiaRoth

Sorry to not contribute facts and figures but does *@MRex* that figure mean that most people catch covid from droplets?

So on a personal level keeping distance and masks, hand washing is enough to significantly lower your risk. (slightly worried teacher returning to classrooms)

We don't really know.