Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2020 18:44

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
90
herecomesthsun · 30/08/2020 16:56

@MRex Really, you think that one child is logically the source rather than any of the adults?

We don't really know x

boys3 · 30/08/2020 17:15

I’m not sure the specimen dates are that spread, if anything a bit tighter than the norm.

Day -1. 21 cases
Day -2. 907 cases; for day-2 that is a big number
Day -3. 340
Day -4. 78
Day -5. 118
Then just 18 cases for the rest of August, so 1st to 24th

A pick up again in the NW so 68 cases added to Bolton for example

Littlebelina · 30/08/2020 17:30

@NeurotrashWarrior

A dr friend informed me last night that the vaccine is due to be "delivered" In October. But that it's not going to be distributed via gps etc as the flu vaccine is. They're setting up a new central body to do that.

He's furious as obviously all the structures already exist. I have no idea why - I did wonder if it's to not add extra pressure to gps? Or yet more contracts for mates.

I wonder if this is due to some of the more advanced vaccine candidates requiring -80C storage which I don't think would be available at most GPs?
PatriciaHolm · 30/08/2020 17:32

@boys3

I’m not sure the specimen dates are that spread, if anything a bit tighter than the norm.

Day -1. 21 cases
Day -2. 907 cases; for day-2 that is a big number
Day -3. 340
Day -4. 78
Day -5. 118
Then just 18 cases for the rest of August, so 1st to 24th

A pick up again in the NW so 68 cases added to Bolton for example

Ah, thank you - I think you have a better grasp on that than I do!

Seven day average of total cases by specimen day for England is actually pretty flat, up to 25th, ignoring later as incomplete; last few days likely to go up, and yes as you say that day 2 is a big number.

Witchend · 30/08/2020 17:39

The problem I'm having with the "children don't spread it" is that I am sceptical on the research. It seems too convenient to me to be able to say "oh we don't need to worry about the children spreading it" when they want schools to go back.

Now the research given may be correct, but I'm not sure about it. We all know how easily things spread in schools on a normal day to day basis. What is different about Covid-19? I've not seen anything that really answers that properly. There haven't been that many children back in schools in the UK. Where there have been children back in schools, then it's been in smaller bubbles, so less potential for spreading, plus children who are more at risk will typically not have been attending. I'm not sure from that you can conclude that children don't spread it-even if one child tested positive, then others would only get tested with symptoms, which if most children are asymptomatic in a bubble of 6-10 there's a reasonable chance none of them will be.

Do children typically not get it as much, or is it more that children are less likely to have been somewhere they might catch it over lockdown? eg shops were asking you not to take children in, so people will have tended to leave them at home.
In the families I've known that have had it and tested, the children have pretty much all had it-and sometimes have been far ill-er than the adults.
Statistics are easy enough to manipulate to show what you want.

I hope they are correct, because otherwise we have a situation ready to erupt in schools. Unfortunately I haven't seen anything that makes me confident it has been looked at properly.

boys3 · 30/08/2020 17:59

with today's release breakdown of cases and cases per 100,000 by each region’s local authority areas.

After LA name, population etc; in purple the number of cases added to the cumulative total today;

Then actual cases numbers based on specimen date for three complete seven day periods and then 25th Aug to 29th .

The next four columns cover the same dates but show cases per 100,000. NB sort is on the cases per 100,000 for the final, 25th to 29th column.

Finally actual daily confirmed cases by specimen date for each day since 25th August.

LAs in the East region shown, rest of the regions to follow.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 17:59

East Mids LAs

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 17:59

London Boroughs

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 18:00

North East LAs

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 18:00

North West LAs

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 18:01

South East LAs

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 18:01

South West LAs

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 18:01

Yorks & Humber LAs

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 18:02

West Mids LAs

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
boys3 · 30/08/2020 18:04

@PatriciaHolm absolutely average at worst flat, and for England may be showing a marginal downward move.

Hope Friday's figs are reflective of test results being processed and reported back more quickly - an eternal optimist me :)

herecomesthsun · 30/08/2020 18:18

The scientific evidence is coming in dribs and drabs.

For example evidence that children can carry the virus for 3 weeks (but we don't know how contagious this makes them)

herecomesthsun · 30/08/2020 18:20

[quote boys3]@PatriciaHolm absolutely average at worst flat, and for England may be showing a marginal downward move.

Hope Friday's figs are reflective of test results being processed and reported back more quickly - an eternal optimist me :)[/quote]
The case numbers in recent days don't suggest a downward move. It was over 1700 today.

PatriciaHolm · 30/08/2020 18:35

@herecomesthesun Yes, but we are talking about cases in England by specimen date not by date announced. See attached, from @rp131 on Twitter. Because cases announced always actually come from a variety of specimen dates, the overall pattern at the moment is pretty flat.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
Shitfuckoh · 30/08/2020 18:53

@PatriciaHolm
Is the flatness due to the lag though? So technically over the next 4/5 days, more cases will be added to that, making it not so flat?
I can't get the dashboard to work for me (again!) so not able to look but based on date announced figures, cases are up & those cases have gone somewhere, as will the next few days figures.

Namara · 30/08/2020 19:09

Could anyone more scientific or with a research background help me understand something about the recent big study on coronavirus in children admitted to hospital please?? I try to read these studies but I struggle with the jargon.

The outcomes state that 1% of children enrolled in the study died, 89% were discharged alive, and 10% were 'still receiving care at the time of reporting'.

This is the study -

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3249

Does this mean the 10% were still receiving care for coronavirus at the end of the study, or something else they were previously admitted for?? How can you tell.

alreadytaken · 30/08/2020 19:10

Take out the bump that was likely due to the M&S factory and what I see is continuous, but not rapid, growth.

Older people have been doing a good job at protecting themselves from the young, lets hope it continues. It will be more difficult with schools going back and many grandparents providing childcare - they are the ones who really need to worry about schools going back.

As for the continual debate about children - this virus is not flu. Plenty of evidence that children carry the virus, not clear to what extent they spread it. And lots of evidence that transmission is from people, virtually none (and that dubious) that anyone has got it from surfaces. I'd still spray metal handles if I was a teacher.

PatriciaHolm · 30/08/2020 19:11

[quote Shitfuckoh]@PatriciaHolm
Is the flatness due to the lag though? So technically over the next 4/5 days, more cases will be added to that, making it not so flat?
I can't get the dashboard to work for me (again!) so not able to look but based on date announced figures, cases are up & those cases have gone somewhere, as will the next few days figures.[/quote]
Possibly, the last few days will go up, but even if they do it's still looking OK. At the moment...

If patterns continue, the next couple of days by specimen date to appear on that chart will be lower, as they are the weekend and normally lower.

PatriciaHolm · 30/08/2020 19:23

@Namara

Could anyone more scientific or with a research background help me understand something about the recent big study on coronavirus in children admitted to hospital please?? I try to read these studies but I struggle with the jargon.

The outcomes state that 1% of children enrolled in the study died, 89% were discharged alive, and 10% were 'still receiving care at the time of reporting'.

This is the study -

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3249

Does this mean the 10% were still receiving care for coronavirus at the end of the study, or something else they were previously admitted for?? How can you tell.

You are right, you can't tell, the study doesn't say what that 10% were being treated for - and as some 42% had at least one co-morbidity, and they also explicitly say they can't differentiate between those who were admitted with CV and those who caught it in hospital, it's impossible to tell.
alreadytaken · 30/08/2020 19:24

Namara Most were admitted for Covid but some acquired it in hospital "We recruited 55 patients as hospital inpatients; they had been admitted for more than five days before symptom onset, indicating likely hospital acquired infection. " so obviously they were admitted originally for something else.

Some of the children will only have been admitted days before the study end, some may have been in intensive care a long time. The death rate might go up very slightly but even children with comorbidity very rarely die of this.

RaggieDolls · 30/08/2020 19:25

Surprised at so many reports of GP surgeries not having a plan in place for flu vaccinations. All the surgeries in my town have worked together and are doing them in the car park and massive function rooms at the local football club.

I can't believe it's that hard to put something like this in place.