Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Gp here.

It's all down to the individual GPs getting themselves sorted and how much they need to change the way they do it

My parents always have booked appointments so it's no different, and they booked theirs weeks ago

Mine is a turn up on a certain day according to alphabet. Always carnage and rammed in like sardines. So obv a total system overhaul and I haven't heard when it will be

I spoke to them 2 weeks ago to highlight my baby is eligible due to high risk. They checked they had her name on list and said I would get a text 🤨

@MRex

Anyone know what happens with toddler flu vaccines, do they come under GP or pre-school?

Ours are done at the GP (but via the nurse) until Reception year when they're done at school.

We can’t get to see a GP, getting through to the receptionist takes on average 40-60 mins, however when I collected a prescription recently the pharmacist asked me if I would like to book for a flu jab, I mentioned Ds needing one too as he’s Asthmatic so she’s booked for both of us on the same day, although there seemed to be a bit of a question whether the ‘live’ vaccine which ds takes up his nose would be available? Not sure?

Anyway, don’t know where this is taking place, I presume it’ll be set up outside? Will report back, should be having it at the end of Sept.

Under 16s can only get the flu vaccine from a GP not a pharmacy. (They can also have the one you swallow on a sugar cube rather than the injection like adults get)

I am tempted to book a paid for flu jab to make sure I get one

I’ve got mine booked with Lloyd’s for 2 weeks time. They are making appointments online now.

Thanks @NeurotrashWarrior and @Shitfuckoh. I'm hopeful that our GP will sort it out then.

[quote Derbygerbil]@MRex

I’d not seen that report, thank you.

The most striking thing about it is that even for early April, it’s forecasts for deaths were way off. Their predictions were for far fewer deaths but with a very shallow drop off. When in fact, the peak was far higher in April, with a much steeper decline, so although the end number is correct, the route there is vastly different, undermining the model’s credibility and indicating the extent to which the Government are shooting in the dark, which is concerning.[/quote]
I agree, whilst modelling can be useful, it really has to be taken with a dose of salt as there are many variables that cannot be included in models.

@Firefliess this was the pharmacy which is attached to our gp surgery so unsure if that makes a difference? There was a question mark over DS though so will have to see when we turn up.

Under 16s can only get the flu vaccine from a GP not a pharmacy. (They can also have the one you swallow on a sugar cube rather than the injection like adults get)

There is no flu vaccine given on a sugar cube, that was polio, although oral polio was stopped in 2004. Pre-school and primary aged children have a nasal vaccine.

@Timeforanotherusername
I'm not vilifying children. All children need their immune systems to be challenged and it is a natural part of growing up to catch diseases. Covid's modes of transmission have been studied more extensively than other coronavirus but it is unlikely to be radically different.

The studies you mention have shown that children are unlikely to get seriously ill, not that they are unable to transmit infections. The Dundee school outbreak demonstrates that, as we know and have said repeatedly on this thread, it is the older age group that are at risk
www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/fp/two-more-schools-in-dundee-confirm-positive-covid-19-cases/

it is unlikely to be radically different
This is opinion, not factual data. The most similar coronvirus to covid-19 is arguably SARS, yet there are huge variances in behaviour. With SARS people got progressively more infectious as they became more unwell, which severely limited spread because people stayed home. Covid-19 is instead most infectious in the day before and 2 days after getting symptoms. With covid-19 it has been shown that symptomatic people in general shed less virus, but shouting/ singing and being in the key infectious period are responsible for a lot of spread. When viruses behave differently, it is sensible not to make assumptions nor leap to conclusions, but to have scientific research and rely upon actual evidence.

Now @whatsnext2, let's look at evidence on Dundee, a big outbreak. So far we have 21 teachers / other staff, 10 other community transmission and 3 pupils at 2 different schools; given that one of those pupils is said to be connected, we can presume a relative from the other school and it's known that living in a household is highest risk. Logically, do you really think one of those 2 children in the first school has had contact with 21 members of staff plus infected 1 classmate, yet infected no other children? Really, you think that one child is logically the source rather than any of the adults? What's happened here is that there has been transmission between adults. The fact it's in a school is incidental, but given this has happened multiple times now it's clear schools need better approaches in keeping their staff safe from each other.

@hopefulhalf

Under 16s can only get the flu vaccine from a GP not a pharmacy. (They can also have the one you swallow on a sugar cube rather than the injection like adults get)

There is no flu vaccine given on a sugar cube, that was polio, although oral polio was stopped in 2004. Pre-school and primary aged children have a nasal vaccine.

Except the under 2s who are eligible. The nasal spray is not licensed for them so they are given an injection

@MRex

Now *@whatsnext2*, let's look at evidence on Dundee, a big outbreak. So far we have 21 teachers / other staff, 10 other community transmission and 3 pupils at 2 different schools; given that one of those pupils is said to be connected, we can presume a relative from the other school and it's known that living in a household is highest risk. Logically, do you really think one of those 2 children in the first school has had contact with 21 members of staff plus infected 1 classmate, yet infected no other children? Really, you think that one child is logically the source rather than any of the adults? What's happened here is that there has been transmission between adults. The fact it's in a school is incidental, but given this has happened multiple times now it's clear schools need better approaches in keeping their staff safe from each other.

I don't know this for sure, but how many children have been tested? As we know they are often asymptomatic and we think they can often spread covid. So theoretically there could be dozens of infected kids we don't know about.

We just don't know how this spread

I remember getting the swine flu jab early on because I was working in NHS dentistry. It wasn’t pharmacies or GPs- we had to go to a Town Hall at a dry day and time. Maybe to start with it will be like that?
Back Clinical teaching at a Uni next week- feeling nervous!

@Derbygerbil

If we look back at the 30th March reasonable worst case scenario, it got to 50,000 covid deaths by September, which is actually frighteningly close

As per my previous post, this seems to be more by luck than judgment.

.... The distribution of infections and deaths is very dependent on the timing of lockdown, which is a key input parameter

BJ dithered for at least 10 days after the recommendation to lockdown, so unless they updated their model with this new date,
they would be predicting a different scenario

Also, the information about clusters and COVID having a dispersion factor of 0.1 were not known in the early days

@herecomesthsun - please be logical. Children are supposed to be in a class bubble in primary, even if they all were infected that's 2 teachers max, so how did the other 19 staff members get infected - adults. That is therefore how this spread, adults.

A model is only as good as its input, so as knowledge about the virus is much more comprehensive than when it was novel,
the models shouild be much more reliable

However, there are still unforeseen events and factors that can affect rl

@Cloudburstagain I am ECV and I never get flu jab at GP. You can still get it free at a pharmacy. I have booked online with Lloyds for September.

It is likely that many infections among adults at work are from other adults
Also possible from their own DC at home, if they have any

hopeful Yes you're right, it's a nasal spray not oral isn't it for children? I was getting mixed up, but remembered that it wasn't an injection they were given

[quote MRex]@herecomesthsun - please be logical. Children are supposed to be in a class bubble in primary, even if they all were infected that's 2 teachers max, so how did the other 19 staff members get infected - adults. That is therefore how this spread, adults.[/quote]
Not in a special school though.
1 example is my childs class. He was only of 12 & there was 4 members of staff. Not sure how many pupils this year (the class have no more than 14 per class and usually most are 10 or below) but I do know there's 5 members of staff in his class in Sept.

@MRex I meant he was one of 12. I'm not disagreeing with anything else you posted though!