Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

I'm feeling madly optimistic today. Just had a very detailed look at the MSOA spreadsheet, tracking any area with darker shades of blue in the past few months. Factory or care home outbreaks are obvious in coming on hard then There's quite a clear "look" to many of the worst areas of concern:

1. spotty cases in light blue
2. a few slightly darker blue in a few areas
3. 2-4 areas go into dark blue, a couple more next shade down, all surrounding areas fill in with light blue
4. spotty white in some areas and the darker blue comes down a shade
5. one stubborn area gets dark, other areas keep lightening
6. fade to light blue and white

You'll be thinking "yes dopey, that's just called a bell curve". And it is. That isn't my possible finding. Time to clear looks like it varies by population, compare say Bradford/Leicester/ Blackburn - in each case roughly 1 week per 20,000 population centred around the original infection spread.
Am I seeing patterns due to madness or can anyone else see this too?

MRex My tentative hypothesis as upthread is that cases will stabilise once the new cases from returning holidaymakers - especially from Spain & France - have worked their way through

I suspect that is what has been happening in Germany < fingers crossed the downward trend of the last 7-10 days continues >
and the UK holidays are 2-4 weeks later than here (depends on which German state)

It would take longer in France & Spain, since all the visitors - simply having millions of extra pairs of lungs - helped shoot up their rates,
but I hope the same thing happens there, well before winter

Or maybe it's more my hope rather than a hypothesis ?

It would be great if things stabilize. But - have you by any chance seen the arrangements in secondary schools?

not inspired with confidence especially as SAGE thought full school return would increase R by 1.0

So looking at the LSOA level data for which population. Deprivation is available for all 32844 in England, and case data by LSOA from the dashboard, with the most recent being for PHE wk 35, 24th to 30th August.

Given the

Thanks @boys3.
"County Durham LSOA - 025D" -
If you take the LSOA codes then you can link them to their area name using this file: geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/lower-layer-super-output-areas-december-2011-names-and-codes-in-england-and-wales
Not that you have to of course, sterling analysis as ever, but if you fancied it...!

Just under 3000 today, I thought things were stable 🤔

I really wasn’t expecting that number!!

Bloody hell . I thought last Sunday's number went up from Saturday so thought it might go up closer to 2000 but that is a hell of a jump,; have there been any outbreaks that explain it?

Well, at least we have some way to go before we hit 100k again.

I thought that must be a mistake when I saw it. Huge jump. Any specific hot spots known?

Also, bear in mind a) a lot of people have not had access to tests and may be positive b) asymptomatic carriers. It will be interesting to see the ONS prevalence figures this week.

Wow @ todays figure I can't get the data to load in regards to previous figures. When was the last time + cases were at that the same sort of figure?

I know it's been asked before but they don't publish % of positive tests anywhere, do they? We have to bodge it together with caveats... but they must know internally, right?

It's the highest reported cases since the 22nd May.

Given the increase in cases and the fact universities are starting back and schools are only just back I don't think the Gov should be pushing on offices to return as well. Caution and responsible actions are what is needed.

Homeschooling for vulnerable kids/ families is what is needed

Today’s case figure has completely caught me off guard, I wasn’t expecting such a big number so quickly.

It would explain the difficulties some people are having booking in for tests though.

Just not telling people to deregister & threatening loss of even preschool places would help! Homeschooling for vulnerable families is really needed before figures get too high (if they do of course!) - it's adding pressure on people who really don't need that added pressure.

But yes, caution is really needed at the moment. A big jump from yesterdays (already quite big) number.

How many tests have they done tho as it’s all about proportion positivity and symptoms

Nothing to suggest we didn’t have say 20000 a day asymptomatic in March as we never tested them!

There had been 10 cases in my area in the last 2 months but have been 8 over the last few days. Apparently all young people returning from holidays. If this is happening all over the country that would go towards explaining the increase in numbers.

Greater Manchester and E Lancs is turning blue on the arcgis map and this only covers up to 2nd Sept.

Bolton added 105 cases today
Manchester 71
Salford 46
Rochdale 42
Oldham 24
Blackburn with Darwen 22

But even my London Borough which was usually reporting an average of 3 cases per day has 13 today.

Tests processed don't look any higher than they did yesterday from the figure I can see - plus lots are actually struggling to get tests!

I really don't think that many people have been on holiday though? The focus on Zante makes it seem that way but the airports are still running at very low capacity.

I know everyone is sick of the word exponential, but that’s what happens. Cases creep up slowly and then there’s a shock when they shoot up of all a sudden.

This isn’t even taking into account school reopenings.

Is Birmingham looking bad?

We really should be focusing more on admissions given how unreasonable the tests are

My colleague had covid in March and was hospitalised and still tests positive now but isn’t infectious and is allowed to work

Like everyone else, I have been puzzling over the death rate. Of course, we had been shielding till August 1st like many others, emerging blinking into the sunlight and feeling it was rather weird to go into a shop.

Shielded people only started to go back into the office in August and children only started back, in different places around the UK, in the past few weeks. The case numbers have gone up first but the deaths are lagging. I think we haven't really seen much infection in the shielded this time round.

Yet.