Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Yeah it's back up and running.

Anyone been tracking admissions and ventilated patients?

Bit worried about the rise currently of 200 people a day testing positive as number of tests carried seems to be remaining stable?

I know admitted and ventilated will have a delay.

I would assume the schools opening is maybe a reason for the current rise as well as people returning from abroad where we know their cases in Europe have also been rising?

It's odd because I've heard lots of talk about October being their estimate for a rise and second wave. I just don't think I've thought about just how close October actually is!

Chris Whitty did warm we were at point where we may not be able to open more. Let's hope we haven't exceeded that. Up until this week we seemed to be on top of the rising cases.

@Piggywaspushed

It doesn't seem so long ago that the government were suggesting 1000 a day was a threshold. Wondering what happens when/if we get to 2000.

We'll all pretend it isn't happening, just as we were appalled at the deaths in Spain and Italy, but then it wasn't much of a news story when 1000 died every day in the UK.

@Piggywaspushed

It doesn't seem so long ago that the government were suggesting 1000 a day was a threshold. Wondering what happens when/if we get to 2000.

Piggy did they say what it would trigger?

That's several days of higher cases in the UK
we should see by about next Wednesday if this rising trend continues or levels off / down

Uk daily cases

26.08 ... 1,048
27.08 ... 1,522
28.03 ... 1,276
29.03 ... 1,108
30.03 ... 1,715
31.03 ... 1,406
01.09 ... 1,295
02.09 ... 1,508
03.09 ... 1,735
04.09 ... 1,940

However, imo unless we see deaths 100 or 200 daily again, this won't change habits or cause reimposition of significant measures

As we see in France and Spain, there can be several thousands of cases daily mostly among the young and middle-aged without a serious number of deaths;
France has 20-30 daily deaths with 7,000 cases; Spain 30-60 deaths with 9,000 cases

it's only when infection spreads significantly to the age 60+ group that deaths rise sharply

Few people are even aware of hospitalisation rates
Mostly geeks like us

7 day average of those in hospital has been flat for about a week now. 7 day avg of those on ventilators pretty stable, down on a week ago.

7 day average of Admissions (England) hit a low of 45 a week ago and has now trickled up to 56 today, but needs a few days to smooth out before getting too worried as data is a little messed up this week thanks to the BH.

BigChoc I appreciate that you have probably already covered this and I have missed it. What's your view on the argument that the reason hospitilisation and deaths are low is because we are still in the summer?

@Morfin

BigChoc I appreciate that you have probably already covered this and I have missed it. What's your view on the argument that the reason hospitilisation and deaths are low is because we are still in the summer?

..... The first 2 reasons are the most important; imo, summer is a 3rd or 4th order factor

• Main reason: Greatly increased testing catching a much higher proportion of infections with mild or no symptoms.
  Likely the UK only has of the order of 3% (my calc for Germany) of the cases it had at peak

• Significantly lower age profile of infections than a few months ago

• Improved and more prompt treatment & meds for those with more severe symptoms

• Lower doses of coronavirus in the community likely reduces the chance of serious illness

• Seasonality: In summer, immunensystems are normally stronger, while at the same time coronavirus does not thrive as much in hotter & humid conditions

• Virus mutation: Unproven and it would be unusually quick for this, but some speculation that genetic change is making the virus less virulent as it passes through human populations

Gov estimates are that infections are likely increasing and R likely > 1

www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

Latest R number range for the UK
0.9-1.1
Latest growth rate range for the UK
-1% to +2%
per day

Scotland on 27 Aug

A week old, but ....

R = 0.9 to 1.4 ==> est. R=1.15
Daily growth rate = -1 to +8% ==> est. growth = +3.5%

Spain has just reported new 10.5k cases and 184 new deaths. That's a big uptick in deaths.

Still burying our heads in sand

@HoldingTight

Spain has just reported new 10.5k cases and 184 new deaths. That's a big uptick in deaths.

According to the official data www.mscbs.gob.es/ca/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_200_COVID-19.pdf

It's 256 deaths in the past week, which is an increase of 63 from yesterday. The equivalent weekly number a week ago was 129.

The 184 reported in the Guardian is the difference between total deaths reported yesterday and today, which will include backdated deaths from days/weeks ago.

Sorry was that a comment on a specific piece of data @guilttripjourno ?

Thank you Patricia - I got the numbers from the Worldometers site (presumably the Guardian did too).

As we see in France and Spain, there can be several thousands of cases daily mostly among the young and middle-aged without a serious number of deaths; France has 20-30 daily deaths with 7,000 cases; Spain 30-60 deaths with 9,000 cases

A rather concerning article about developments in Spain.... Covid appears to have gone well beyond simply benignly infecting 20-somethings...

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-over-920-covid-19-patients-hospitalized-in-a-day/1954262#

Those 184 Spanish deaths look mostly being added from the week 24-31 August

No marsha. It was typically vague!

The criteria over admission in Spain (and France) for CV is interesting, though I know little about it - but there is something odd there, either in their criteria or their measurement.

England currently has around 400 CV inpatients, with about 50 new patients a day; Spain has almost 6,000 in patients and 900 being added a day! France also has over 5,000 inpatients, and 200-300 new admissions a day.

We can't possibly be measuring the same thing when it comes to admissions and current inpatients, surely?

[quote Derbygerbil]As we see in France and Spain, there can be several thousands of cases daily mostly among the young and middle-aged without a serious number of deaths; France has 20-30 daily deaths with 7,000 cases; Spain 30-60 deaths with 9,000 cases

A rather concerning article about developments in Spain.... Covid appears to have gone well beyond simply benignly infecting 20-somethings...

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-over-920-covid-19-patients-hospitalized-in-a-day/1954262#[/quote]
....
That's very worrying

I would like to see the age breakdown of hospital admissions,
but that report suggest admissions at a high level and rocketing - exponential growth taking off

So sadly, deaths likely to rise a lot, too

I’ve thought that @PatriciaHolm, and it’s been unbalanced for a while now, not just in the last few day’s/weeks!

I remember Humphries highlighting the difference in hospitalisation levels in France- but at the time it was when everyone ( on Mumsnet in particular) was talking about the UK having too high a bar for admissions.

If we do start to get in hot water is it clear what should happen? The thought of closing businesses seems too much when SD is probably effective.

Home visits can be limited but will people do it? I guess most will.

Don’t know though. The thought of closing and furlough etc feels very onerous.

@PatriciaHolm

The criteria over admission in Spain (and France) for CV is interesting, though I know little about it - but there is something odd there, either in their criteria or their measurement.

England currently has around 400 CV inpatients, with about 50 new patients a day; Spain has almost 6,000 in patients and 900 being added a day! France also has over 5,000 inpatients, and 200-300 new admissions a day.

We can't possibly be measuring the same thing when it comes to admissions and current inpatients, surely?

.... I wonder if the average infection age is different since age is absolutely critical

This could happen with the very different number of infections, with much higher cases leading to more spread to the elderly
or better protection for the elderly would help keep down hospitalisation and deaths

More stats:

Germany has averaged 1200-1500 daily infections for weeks
average age lower 30s and dropping slightly
daily hospitalisations (confirmed lab test) about 350, roughly stable for weeks
% deaths now down to about 0.3% from a peak of 7% when average age was 52, during height of the pandemic
In ICU currently 223 patients, still v gradually decreasing

@PatriciaHolm

The criteria over admission in Spain (and France) for CV is interesting, though I know little about it - but there is something odd there, either in their criteria or their measurement.

England currently has around 400 CV inpatients, with about 50 new patients a day; Spain has almost 6,000 in patients and 900 being added a day! France also has over 5,000 inpatients, and 200-300 new admissions a day.

We can't possibly be measuring the same thing when it comes to admissions and current inpatients, surely?

We discussed France high admissions a few months back. Even when their cases were lower than ours their impatient/admission rate was much higher.

I can't remember if we ever did find the reason why! But I'm certainly still interested because it's a very important statistic for comparison and monitoring.