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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2020 18:44

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
90
PatriciaHolm · 04/09/2020 18:51

I am confused - anyone speak Spanish??

According to the official data -

www.mscbs.gob.es/ca/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_200_COVID-19.pdf

New admissions in past week - 1,946 (table 2)

BUT table 4 - 1,007 in past 24 hours!! Yet the difference between total inpatients yesterday and today = 198.

Total inpatients today = 7,392; a week ago 5,903.

help! I think we need a native Spanish speaker...

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2020 18:58

@MarshaBradyo

If we do start to get in hot water is it clear what should happen? The thought of closing businesses seems too much when SD is probably effective.

Home visits can be limited but will people do it? I guess most will.

Don’t know though. The thought of closing and furlough etc feels very onerous.

... Sufficiently "hot water" would be a lot of deaths per day - 100, 200, 300 ?

High cases alone would probably not bring public consent for anything much, other than stopping flights
and probably masks in secondary classrooms

If we get to the stage of higher deaths again - and remember, we may not - then measures would depend partly on whether cases and deaths are concentrated in local areas that can be locked down

  • but generally I'd expect restrictions on how many can meet
and more restrictions on pubs, restaurants

Maybe closing cinemas & clubs, obviously travel agencies
but I'd expect most other businesses would be expected to continue, i.e. nothing like a 2nd lockdown

Also, as before, high deaths mean many people will start SD, isolation etc before the government acts
So e.g. schools would start to empty, regardless of whether the govt wants to keep them open
and people would not be going to restaurants or shops much

OP posts:
alreadytaken · 04/09/2020 19:07

I'm seeing 79 admissions for England today - increasing. Patricia said 56?

MarshaBradyo · 04/09/2020 19:07

I agree with you BigChoc

I feel my consent for closure has waned for cases alone. Not that I’d have a choice if they did just close things.

Deaths do start to bring about own effect. But also staff shortages.

PatriciaHolm · 04/09/2020 19:12

@alreadytaken

I'm seeing 79 admissions for England today - increasing. Patricia said 56?
56 is the 7 day average. Hospital numbers (both admissions and totals) tend to be a bit erratic on a day to day basis as not all hospitals report every day, and lots don't over the weekend/BH. So you have to take a average, as a day on day increase (or indeed drop) isn't that reliable.
itsgettingweird · 04/09/2020 19:14

Patricia I'm having to flick back and forth. Table 2 says data for 3/9 up to 2pm on 4/9.

So past 24 hours like ours is recorded.

itsgettingweird · 04/09/2020 19:16

Sorry was reading wrong table!

It says past 7 days up until 3/9 and consolidated 4/9.

Just re looking again at right info!

alreadytaken · 04/09/2020 19:16

7 day average is slow to pick up increases, this is increasing.

itsgettingweird · 04/09/2020 19:23

Patricia *
*
What it seems is table 2 is the total for the 7 days up until the 3/9. The data is consolidated and printed on 4/9.

Table 4 is the data for up until 3pm on 4/9 from same time on 3/9.

So table 2 stops where table 4 carries on from if that's make sense?

So you are right. Past 24 hours has seen a huge rise

Littlebelina · 04/09/2020 19:31

Stolen image from David Paton twitter. 7 day average on admissions is up on this time last week (which appears to be low point) but is still down from 4 weeks ago. Worth watching. He has summarised other key indicators as well.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2020 19:34

ECDC 14-day incidence:

UK 27.2 / 100,000
Spain 235 / 100,000
France 105 / 100,000
Italy 27.8 / 100,000
Germany 19.3 / 100,000

OP posts:
Littlebelina · 04/09/2020 19:34

Forgot to say, think it's worth monitoring but not worrying (yet). Some rises are inevitable I suspect given how much has reopened (not counting schools at moment as these indicators from David's chart are mostly England so too early to be an affect from that)

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2020 19:38

WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told journalists at a briefing in Geneva:

“We are not expecting to see widespread vaccination until the middle of next year,

This phase 3 < vaccine trials > must take longer because we need to see how truly protective the vaccine is and we also need to see how safe it is”

OP posts:
PatriciaHolm · 04/09/2020 19:38

@itsgettingweird

Patricia * * What it seems is table 2 is the total for the 7 days up until the 3/9. The data is consolidated and printed on 4/9.

Table 4 is the data for up until 3pm on 4/9 from same time on 3/9.

So table 2 stops where table 4 carries on from if that's make sense?

So you are right. Past 24 hours has seen a huge rise

And if you look at yesterdays -

www.mscbs.gob.es/ca/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_199_COVID-19.pdf

it essentially says the same thing - 1,067 in the past 24 hours (and the previous day said 1,007)- but that is incompatible with a total of the past 7 days of 1,946!

I think there must be something about the definition of "inpatients"/"admitted" etc that does not mean "sick enough to require hospital treatment", because the numbers don't make sense.

JimMaxwellantheshippingforcast · 04/09/2020 19:39

Does anyone have any idea what percentage of cases we are detecting with testing now in comparison to, say, late March?

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2020 19:46

Spain

Has added 10,456 cases to the running total,
but of these 4,503 cases were diagnosed in the past 24 hours

In the last 7 days, 1,946 hospital admissions, 151 in ICU

Deaths rose by 64, increasing the total so far this week to 256

Oh and there is a new record:
A patient was applauded out of ICU in Mallorca after 159 days !
That's 22 weeks+5 days Shock

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/09/04/spain-adds-more-than-10000-covid-19-cases-friday/

OP posts:
itsgettingweird · 04/09/2020 19:48

Patricia agree it doesn't add up. And it even says underneath table 2 that patients admitted who also went into icu who also died will be counted in each section.

Although those who dies may have admitted in the previous 7 day period.

I have read and re read - fussed around with each column and I cannot make them add up!

itsgettingweird · 04/09/2020 19:51

BCF the issue with Spain is the daily totals do not add up to the running total over 7 days.

I've tried to read over and over and the only thing I can perhaps discern is that it's patients admitted V those who attended - so perhaps tested in hospital?

But it doesn't actually say this specifically.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2020 19:51

@JimMaxwellantheshippingforcast

Does anyone have any idea what percentage of cases we are detecting with testing now in comparison to, say, late March?
.... Not to March but UK tests currently 0.6% positive (World in Data) which is very good

I have the full data for Germany and calculated cases there now are only about 3% of what they were at peak, in late March to early April
so I would expect the Uk to be something like that % of cases now comparedto peak

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2020 19:57

@itsgettingweird

BCF the issue with Spain is the daily totals do not add up to the running total over 7 days.

I've tried to read over and over and the only thing I can perhaps discern is that it's patients admitted V those who attended - so perhaps tested in hospital?

But it doesn't actually say this specifically.

... The 1,946 looks the correct total for 7 days, since I found another source for it

but the daily numbers look all over the place
Maybe they are changed retrospectively, as we've seen - although not to this extent - in UK figures

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2020 20:07

Spain: Nearly 96% of new Covid cases do not need hospital treatment

www.thinkspain.com/news-spain/32397/nearly-96-of-new-covid-cases-do-not-need-hospital-treatment

only 4.43% have had to go to hospital, and only 7.1% of these have needed to be admitted to intensive care.

OP posts:
NeurotrashWarrior · 04/09/2020 20:08

Has this vitamin d study been shared?

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764

JimMaxwellantheshippingforcast · 04/09/2020 20:12

Thank you @BigChocFrenzy that's quite reassuring.

alreadytaken · 04/09/2020 20:25

No, that study hasnt been shared and it is amazing, not least because they probably were not all deficient in vitamin D. It needs to be confirmed in other studies, obviously.

herecomesthsun · 04/09/2020 20:31

As far as I can make out we are getting about 1/100 of the cases every day that we had at peak, and we are having about 1/100 of the deaths we had at peak. More or less.

That suggests that

  • the virus hasn't got weaker and
  • there remains a possibility of rapid exponential growth in the right conditions (reopening schools with minimal precautions and dragooning office workers back to work).
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