Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Yep, the increase in sample size will be very helpful.

I’m just sceptical because we know that young people are driving the new wave of infections in the UK, but they’re also a group less likely to go through the voluntary ONS self-swabbing process.

@MRex

ONS actually says 2000 new cases per day (with 1 in 2000 infected as above) and Covid Zoe says 1974 new cases per day. Average daily test figures give 1435. That would suggest testing is identifying over 70% of cases, which is really very high.

I'm cautious about believing it, especially with the broad MSOA spread. I dearly hope it's the case, because that's the way for numbers to drop significantly, but I'm skeptical.

.... I'd like to see if the % positive has changed, to evaluate that 70% possibility

I would really like a history table over the weeks, showing numbers tested and the % positive, e.g. like the RKI do
Is this available as a chart anywhere ?

ONS and Zoe both exclude cases in institutions including care homes, so the taken together the figures would suggest we were detecting a bit less than 70% of cases. Still does seem a bit high though. Self selection bias is an issue with both ONS and Zoe, but I can't see why it would be a changing issue. Yes it will be good then they increase the sample on the ONS to improve its accuracy.

I've looked here:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-england-and-coronavirus-testing-uk-statistics-20-august-to-26-august-2020

but may have missed historical info about % positive
Or anywhere else to look ?

[quote MRex]@Redolent is correct though that it will still suffer from non-responder bias, it'll pick up more asymptomatic but the people who are determined not to quarantine / isolate when needed and drive spread are not going to be doing a weekly ONS test.[/quote]
....
Yes, their sample probably has only pretty compliant people,
excluding the small minority who object to COVID measures and avoid compliance on principle,
together with those who have finanical concerns, caring responsibilities or other reasons to dodge needing to isolate

Ganesh on twitter analyses the test and trace data weekly

mobile.twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1301467479034691584

The %positivity is slowly creeping up over the last few weeks but is still relatively low. Data is lagging a week though.

To the point above about zoe/ons only showing community cases, the test and trace data indicates pillar 1 is just under 10% of postives (was about 600 last week) so you could in theory divide the zoe/ons figure by 0.9 to get an estimate including hosiptal. Would still exclude care homes I think.

Thick question alert-

If they're testing 28,000 p/w now, and in less than 8 wks they will increase that to 400,000 , where is the capacity coming from?
They can't further reduce the testing of those with symptoms - looking at some of the "i've got to drive 100 miles for a test" comments over the last week - so how are they going to do this?

This would of course be a bit rough as you'd expect testing to pick up all hosiptal figures but not all community so this would actually overestimate hosiptal. It would be better just to add the daily pillar 1 test figure (which used to be published, not sure if it still is) to the zoe/ons estimate to get a daily estimate of cases but that depends on how dedicated you are to doing this.

@BigChocFrenzy - a useful global resource for % positivity: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#the-positive-rate-a-crucial-metric-for-understanding-the-pandemic.

If you go through to a table, you can compare % positivity for different periods e.g. ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=table&year=latest&time=2020-05-10..latest.

[quote MRex]@BigChocFrenzy - a useful global resource for % positivity: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#the-positive-rate-a-crucial-metric-for-understanding-the-pandemic.

If you go through to a table, you can compare % positivity for different periods e.g. ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=table&year=latest&time=2020-05-10..latest.[/quote]
...
Thanks, Mrex
although I don't know why the NHS / PHE can't issue weekly a simple historical table of tests & positivity - it's basic info they must have and imo more useful than much of what they do issue !

Looks like UK positivity is only 0.6%, which is very good
I note Argentina has around 50% positivity ! - at the peak, parts of Wales had 50% too, but they tested v little then too

Kurzarbeit couldn't save this business in Germany:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54016791

One of Europe's largest brothels has filed for bankruptcy, after being hit by Germany's anti-coronavirus measures.
The 10-floor Pascha is a major landmark in the city of Cologne
.....
Prostitution has been outlawed in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia since the outbreak of the virus.
Some 120 prostitutes usually work at Pascha.
It employs around 60 staff including cooks and hairdressers.

One prophylactic I would refuse !

"You may have a better chance of surviving COVID-19 if you have parasitic worms"

www.dw.com/en/you-may-have-a-better-chance-of-surviving-covid-19-if-you-have-parasitic-worms/av-54804907

The kinds of worms that affect hundreds of millions of people, mostly in the tropics, may be mitigating the most severe effects of COVID-19.

BCF I can't see there being a massive queue outside Boots for that one.

The Uk table might be in here @BigChocFrenzy, I can't search right now but can look later www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/characteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19inenglandaugust2020

I briefly saw 1920 cases for today but now we're back to the dreaded dots.

I briefly saw 10 deaths, then got dots. If anyone checks, maybe we can piece together the results.

@HoldingTight

I briefly saw 1920 cases for today but now we're back to the dreaded dots.

Says 'N/A' now. anyone any idea what is going on?

Numbers here

They said 11 on the news just now?

1940 is not good news. Finding it hard to believe that cases are really holding steady with such a clear rise in positive tests

It doesn't seem so long ago that the government were suggesting 1000 a day was a threshold. Wondering what happens when/if we get to 2000.

Unless 100s of people start dying again, most people will not be bothered. Cases lead to hospitalization and deaths.

Yes, agreed.

Things looking pretty bad in France.

I wish we could know how many of these cases have been imported.

@HoldingTight

I briefly saw 1920 cases for today but now we're back to the dreaded dots.

I got that figure about half hour ago.

So maybe back up and running?

I will check again!