Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Interesting BBC article on potential cross-immunity to covid from other coronaviruses in Africa.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-53998374

It is puzzling why there is a big impact on Brazil but not in Africa - maybe demographics or poor diet/obesity in Brazil but also very positive that the mortality in Africa seems modest.

I had thought the main reason Africa generally isn't suffering as much is because the mean age in Africa is so low, due mainly to the carnage of AIds

e.g. mean ages:
17 Uganda
18 Nigeria
22 Ghana
28 S Africa

Many thousands of people in their teens and 20s can catch COVID for about 1 death
whereas death risk rises very significantly after age 60

@Augustbreeze love that idea. I will work it in. And wrt to the five areas. Yes you can sign up to any five areas for now but I am rebuilding the backend and I am hoping to be able to offer sign ups for unlimited number of areas once complete. It’s a bit tricky but so far so good. Daughter was back to school today so I got a good crack at it and I’m hopeful it will be possible. I hate that people are limited to five for now but it’s a limitation of the email service provider. It’s a pain.

Brazil has a mean age of 33, still much younger than any country in Europe, but significantly higher than anywhere in Africa

Also, all African governments have done what they can to combat COVID, recommending mask wearing etc where possible
but Brazil's Bolsanaro has wilfully decided to do nothing whatsoever, total abdication of responsibility, mocking SD
and has been much criticised there for his conduct.

re other S. American countries:
I know that Peru has had to cope with a simultaneous outbreak of Dengue Fever and their health service just can't cope with 2 major epidemics

• any Western health service would struggle greatly with that So their death rate reflects a health system that has been overwhelmed

Obviously it's sensible to prioritise areas with higher infection rates

www.bbc.com/news/health-53990068

UK labs were described as "maxed out" after a rise in demand - 170,000 tests a day are being processed, up from 100,000 in mid June.
....
The booking website is now prioritising high-risk areas, including towns and cities with high infection rates and care homes, for testing.
It means there are restricted numbers of home testing kits and fewer booking slots at local testing centres for people in low-risk areas

Leeds rate has been rising and apparantly will be added to the watch list tomorrow. I’ve noticed it from littleowl’s emails so it’s been good to have had a heads up. Council are saying there is a 3.5% positivity test result.

Obviously I'm hoping MRex is having a lovely evening... but am waiting with baited breath for her analysis of today's numbers.

The rise to 1,735 new cases in the Uk was driven by the rise to 1,507 cases in England.
Scotland's new cases fell by 55 to 101
2 September was a smaller rise to 1,239 for England

However, these are only 2 days cases, after several days of England averaging around 1,000
We need to see how tomorrow and next week go before we know if this is a rising trend or just a blip

Moncef Slaoui, chief adviser of Operation Warp Speed in the US says he expects a vaccine will be available before the end of the year.

“I firmly believe that we will have a vaccine available before the end of the year, and it will be available in quantities that can immunize subjects which are at the highest risk." mobile.twitter.com/scotthensley/status/1301583941808394242

(Moncef Slaoui is an immunologist, and previously headed up the vaccine program at GlaxoSmithKline, where he led the development of five major novel vaccines.)

@BigChocFrenzy

The rise to 1,735 new cases in the Uk was driven by the rise to 1,507 cases in England. Scotland's new cases fell by 55 to 101 2 September was a smaller rise to 1,239 for England

However, these are only 2 days cases, after several days of England averaging around 1,000
We need to see how tomorrow and next week go before we know if this is a rising trend or just a blip

It's 1974 for England now according to the Zoe app.

"UK labs were described as "maxed out" after a rise in demand - 170,000 tests a day are being processed, up from 100,000 in mid June"

Isn't capacity supposed to be around 250,000 though ( based on the dashboard?)

Yes, looking at the testing figures they have been in or around this level before with no problems, unless there are regional lab challenges.

I've been told that half of the 60 ish ST cases last week we're asymptomatic and mostly in the age 20-30 bracket. No hospital admissions.

I expect this is a common theme?

ST? @NeurotrashWarrior

South Tyneside. Looking at Phe it's a very common theme!

Do they give breakdowns for symptomatic or asymptomatic tests?

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/out-hours-school-club-centre-18870725.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Evidence of transmission between children in child care setting?

@HoldingTight - haha, crap film night. Not much analysis from me, from a brief look I do not like the numbers from yesterday:

1. The spotty increases in random MSOA areas that look like holidaymakers continue, I do not understand why England and NI wouldn't quarantine even just for the sake of harmony with Wales and Scotland, it's all manner of wrong message to give
2. Certain cities are "filling in" low infection rates across more MSOA, this is driving increases even though there are reductions in some badly hit areas, this may be a bad sign for spread
3. It might just be that the increases on the continent have rattled me, I'll look more carefully later
4. I don't understand the situation with testing, if they can't fulfil drive-through then surely it should be healthcare in person and everyone else by post; I've come around to the idea that a lot more tests are needed because I don't see how they can be sensibly rationed otherwise.

Thank you MRex. Crap film night here tonight. Last night with all chicks in the nest. It's been a funny old summer.

Thanks for the "fred". I tend to lurk more at the mo.
littleowl1 I'm signed up for the app and have recommended it to others. It's good to know what the figures are. Being in (southern) East Cheshire it's difficult, as it's geographically so mixed - some v rural and some commuter towns/villages that go N S E and W out of the borough. So please keep the figures as LA not per 100k. 💐

The ONS survey results are showing no particular change again - about 1 in 2000 infection rate still.

The ONS survey is very flawed and prone to non-responder bias.

ONS actually says 2000 new cases per day (with 1 in 2000 infected as above) and Covid Zoe says 1974 new cases per day. Average daily test figures give 1435. That would suggest testing is identifying over 70% of cases, which is really very high.

I'm cautious about believing it, especially with the broad MSOA spread. I dearly hope it's the case, because that's the way for numbers to drop significantly, but I'm skeptical.

The main issue with the ONS surveillance is that they have too few people to show gradual trends at what is a relatively very low level in the country

They are addressing this by expanding from regularly testing 28,000 people per fortnight in England to 150,000 by October
and eventually to 400,000 people in England, also adding the other 3 UK nations.

So from October, which is when cases might start ramping up in the colder weather, they should have more accurate, reliable data

I'm not sure but don't the Zoe app and the ONS survey look at community infections, whereas the official figures include care homes and NHS testing in hospitals?

@Redolent is correct though that it will still suffer from non-responder bias, it'll pick up more asymptomatic but the people who are determined not to quarantine / isolate when needed and drive spread are not going to be doing a weekly ONS test.