Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

This report on comorbidities is fairly recent: academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/advance-article/doi/10.1093/gerona/glaa183/5873904. Age (particularly dementia) is the biggest risk, then hypertension, COPD, obesity and diabetes all increase risks. 15 million in the UK (22.5%) have some form of long-term condition that's managed by medication; add on those who aren't medicated but have some other vulnerabilities and we can expect an even higher percentage. Initially any possible conditions were tracked because it wasn't known what covid might or might not affect. Some learning disabilities (particularly those caused by chromosomal disorders) are linked to respiratory disease vulnerabilities, so that may be why they were tracked. Autism can be linked to gastrointestinal disorders, which might have been a risk. Ethnicity was also tracked, to see if that mattered, and it did. There can be positive outcomes too; I know someone with Addisons who was removed from the shielding list because the condition was later classified as not being an additional risk.

People abusing the findings with "everyone had a underlying condition" are annoying idiots who should be ignored.

When lockdown started to be lifted, Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester argued that it was too early for GM. There have been raves and there are areas of social deprivation but we may mainly be seeing the after effects of lifting lockdown too early for the region.

I do think they are going to have to ramp up testing availability and supply sharpish

The only way we are going to be able to keep things on an even keel in schools is if testing is available and fast. As staff, we need to be able to get back into school as soon as possible, particularly those of us who teach exam classes. We also need students in as much as possible if exam years, not languishing at home waiting for a test result. We also need parents to feel that if we ask their child to go home because they have developed symptoms they are able to test quickly and get back to work if negative. What we don't want is parents thinking 'fuck it, I'll tell them the test was negative' without ever having had a test because it's taking 2 days to get a test and there's a 3 day wait for results. That's where the danger lies - I had a test 10 days ago and waited 75 hours for the results. That's a long time in work hours!

That still haven't given care homes the weekly staff testing they promised. Could do with regular testing of teachers now too!
This is what gets me soooo cross. There are ways of dealing with this that would really help but it just isn't happening.
In Greater Manchester we see the figs for each local authority. In some cases are spread pretty evenly across the LA but in others ( like Salford) it is just a few wards that are badly affected. They could do with setting regular rapid testing in those wards to be honest.

Sorry I know this is anecdota but I’ve had to test a few times as requested by the Zoe app and once because of symptoms. In July there was lots of availability at testing centres, this week it was much more difficult to find a slot at a testing centre. I know of two colleagues in this borough who had the same issue. I don’t know if this is because my borough is now testing in far greater numbers, just a blip or what. But did also think it will be an issue when the kids go back this week if tests can’t be accessed easily. I’d love to believe it’s because people are listening to the council comms and getting tested in higher numbers.

It did actually make me feel bad for testing just for the app ( but I know it’s useful for research!).

Boys I agree that NW shouldn't be lumped as a blob. That's why I said it seems to be a certain part and wondered if geographically there was a reason.

Multi general living is probably a reason I agree.

I know in Leicester there was an issue with working conditions and slave labour.

I just watch that area and think it must be so hard to have continuous restrictions and virus buzzing around and from what you post it seems to never really drop much but also not rise. And high population and density would I suppose explain that?

There's more people for it to buzz around? My town has a population of 120k. If we had 170/100k cases like some areas a week for weeks we'd be almost into the idea of herd immunity here. I guess it's hard to picture it?

The summer surge in the North could be partly down to returning holidaymakers, there are several international airports in the "Northern Powerhouse" and people don't necessarily quarantine as fastidiously as Govt would like.
My current concern is the influx of 100,000 students into Manchester in the next week or two, that's bound to put the cat amongst the pigeons in terms of virus tracking.
There don't seem to be any plans to mass test students on arrival -or at all- and they're coming from all over the UK and the world.

I needed a test 2 weeks ago as had a high temperature. Was easy to arrange (although, weirdly, online 111 told me to wait a few days and, if no improvement, contact my GP!). I arranged a test online for the following morning at a drive-in testing site 5 miles away. Loads of appointments available. Yesterday I felt a bit off - thought I'd look at testing availability in case symptoms arrived. The local testing site had disappeared - tests available 15 miles away but not great availability.

I've only just started looking in detail at the testing data on the UK Govt update - is it usually so far behind? No numbers since 26/8...

@Uhoh2020 context would have been a useful thing more me to add, so pretty much around 12 cases per 100,000 for England in the last two fully complete weeks, and for the column in red, around 10.8 - that is only lower as it is not yet a fully complete week in terms of cases feeding through.

North West overall around the 20 cases per 100,000 mark - however as you've already seen quite some variance between LAs.

Thanks for feedback, Mrex, CaptainMerica I'll add Tabby to the next OP

[quote boys3]@Uhoh2020 context would have been a useful thing more me to add, so pretty much around 12 cases per 100,000 for England in the last two fully complete weeks, and for the column in red, around 10.8 - that is only lower as it is not yet a fully complete week in terms of cases feeding through.

North West overall around the 20 cases per 100,000 mark - however as you've already seen quite some variance between LAs.[/quote]
Thanks for explaining it to me

It's not as readily consumable because of the need to click through everywhere, but the official Scottish source data should probably be linked too: www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/.
NI: app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
Wales: erm, I can't actually find it...

What is read about track and trace was that it was only interested in who you may have infected and didn’t look at where you might have got it. I hope this is changing as we must be missing out on a lot of useful information on how the virus spreads by not capturing it that could inform intelligent approaches to limiting the virus whilst allowing low risk activities to continue.

we are back to the "othering" with comorbidities. The government wants everyone out spending money and thinks that saying it's only the old and sick will help. I'm not young, I live with someone who has health conditions - it has the opposite effect to the one they intend. Also irritates me so that instead of seeing it as a civic duty to bring forward spending wherever possible/ increase charitable funding/ support local businesses I'll retreat indoors and sit on my hands.

The North West has international airports, areas of deprivation with employment in sub optimal conditions and sometimes crowded poor housing. It's anyone's guess what has the biggest influence. It probably also has high levels of distrust for government advice.

Forgot - most important symptom is loss of sense of taste and smell, unfortunately that is present in other respiratory conditions. Still it is present in virtually all cases of Covid and is sometimes the only symptom.

Is there research to show that loss of taste/smell is present in all (symptomatic) cases, @alreadytaken? I hadn't seen that.

People abusing the findings with "everyone had a underlying condition" are annoying idiots who should be ignored.

Oh Lordy, yes. There are so bloody many of them on MN though!

Did anyone see the findings of the survey conducted (in Brazil) that suggested those who minimise Coronavirus in conversation with others (one of the examples given was making dismissive comparisons with flu!) and dismiss others' anxieties, or oppose mitigation measures have high levels of traits such as sociopathy, narcissism, Machiavellian traits and even psychopathic ones.

Not really surprised. But it helped me to think that some of these nastier people are actually genuinely empathy-less sociopaths! It's shame a few countries have them as leaders...

@Augustbreeze

Is there research to show that loss of taste/smell is present in all (symptomatic) cases, *@alreadytaken*? I hadn't seen that.

US cdc and WHo added it to list of symptoms mid May.

www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0916-2

Results of Zoe app

Yes I know it's now widely accepted as one of the main symptoms but that isn't the same as saying it's present in nearly all cases.

On the university front the HESA website publishes a quite detailed range of stats and source data download options.

For example in the most recent year stats (2018/19) for undergrads with a home domicile of Greater Manchester 36385 / 60160 went to a Uni / HE provider in..................the North West, with a further 8815 heading across the penines to Yorkshire. OU next with 3825. That’s 80 percent already accounted for.

www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/students/where-study

@cathyandclare
I’ve had my first messenger this morning and really surprised to see the rise in my town. Even more surprised when I checked the map and saw the numbers in 2 of the very naice suburbs / villages. Guessing it’s the same place you were referring to. Slightly concerning and I’m wondering if we are going to have a local lockdown soon. Our schools don’t go back until next week

@SecondAttempt I'm holding onto the fact that although the raw numbers are high, Leeds is a big city. Incidence is 27 per 100000, which is still well below Bradford (43), Oldham (55) and Manchester (39).

It's on an upward trajectory though, whereas the others are more stable ( with local lockdowns.) Kirklees are Calderdale are just below Leeds now.

Testing extremely busy - having read updates, I have gone through the system to try a book a drive through.

1 month ago - got a test within an hour, over one thousand slots available. This morning - only 28 slots available in the next 5 days.

What is going on? Our area is really low infection, no outbreaks, three local drive in-centres.

Is this returning holiday makers making sure they are Covid free? Is it returning teachers/school children?

The front page of the website has new warnings about lack of tests, but I thought this would only be for high infection areas, not country wide. Worrying.

@MRex

It's not as readily consumable because of the need to click through everywhere, but the official Scottish source data should probably be linked too: www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/. NI: app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9 Wales: erm, I can't actually find it...

Wales is here -

public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

under "local authorities" and you can then change the time period to see last day, 7 days, etc.

Maybe it's people booking tests before school, or maybe they're also focusing supplies on higher-risk areas? Still loads of tests available in Yorkshire- I could book within the hour. A different site than the ones I was sent when I was called up by the ZOE app.