Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@AlecTrevelyan006

Tab3 here: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-27-August-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

Just 1,390 healthy people (i.e had no pre-existing condition) have died from Covid

... Conditions include LDs, autism, treatment for MH condition (which could include depression), asthma, T1, T2, rhematological / lung / heart condition, dementia ....

When you add up all the conditions, that is a hefty minority of the British public

• and some don't even realise they have conditions like high BP or organ disease

England pop 56 million has 84% of UK population, so proportions of cases at > 80% are not far out

First time I've heard of MH conditions considered as comorbidities? Or am I just not widely read enough?

Or is comorbidity the wrong term here?

It's difficult to give a figure for false negatives because it depends on when the test is taken and how well it's done. So a test on the day you develop symptoms is highly likely to be accurate but 5 days later the rate is poor. I dont think it's worth looking for the numbers.

This may have been discussed so sorry if I'm repeating a previous conversation.

Has there been any discussion about why the higher number of cases is centred in the north western area of U.K.
I know it's not all NW but there seems to be a certain geographical area worst affected?

I know originally SE had higher figures and then moved into London. Is it that they got the cases later due to lockdown? Something to do with density or temperature?

It's just the SW and SE are hugs tourist areas and have been packed during the summer with so many people remaining in England and from what I've seen cases haven't risen at a great rate. And I'd assume people from NW have travelled to these areas? (Though my assumption could be way out!)

Plymouth seems to have had a bigger problem with people returning from Greece than people visiting from around the U.K.?

itsgettongweird i was wondering why Scotland was on the increase.

It may be schools and that probably does account for some of the rise, but I'm not sure its the only reason. But I also wonder if the weather is playing a part.

Its pretty grim up North at times. Scotland especially can be wet and cold. So more time spent indoors. Not sure what its like in the NW England but not great in Scotland.

@Littlebelina - there would also be the option to run the test by identify a threshold and inform people they have had it but are not currently infectious so have had it for a little while (if that's the only option and not early stage infection, which I'm not convinced of).

trying again with the North West, might have helped if the correct file had been uploaded. Apologies for any confusion caused.

@Augustbreeze

First time I've heard of MH conditions considered as comorbidities? Or am I just not widely read enough?

.... It surprised me too, along with LDs and autism

As an Aspie (scoring in the 40s out of 50) I disagree - in advance ! - that if I die from COVID that I should be excluded merely for that treason from the group of "healthy" people
I'm a 64 year old gym rat, normal BMI, who lifts > 2.5 x my bodyweight and I am normally classed as very fit, without any health conditions

I'm surprised at autism being a co mobility.

My ds is autistic. That was never mentioned as a concern. However he has hereditary spastic paraparasis which is a neurological muscular condition which qualifies him for the flu jab and therefore can under clinically vulnerable. But his neurologist said there was no evidence children with these conditions were more at risk and it was aimed at adults in this category.

But still advised to treat as vulnerable at the start to be safe.

Oh and ds is an athlete! He's a Kara swimmer with his goal to reach the 2024/28 olympics.

"It may be schools"

I'd be surprised if schools are driving or accelerating infections to a major extent, compared to say reopening some sectors of the economy
School cases seem to be a reflection of community level infections and any effect on R is more the sheer number of children and adults together

e.g. The small German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania started ft schools on 3 August, so has had 4 weeks.
Their 7-day incidence then was 2.1 / 100,000 and rose briefly to 2.9, but has been falling since to now only 0.8 / 100,000

They have had the least precautions of any German state and seen only a few cases in schools - although they closed schools for only 1 case (!)
The initial rise seemed to be caused mostly by returning holidaymakers and parties, both of which have tailed off since school restarted - firms have their annual summer holidays during school hols.

However, states with much higher starting levels in the community saw far more cases in schools and far more school closures, e.g. Berlin, although again closing schools for only 1 or 2 cases.

@itsgettingweird

Oh and ds is an athlete! He's a Kara swimmer with his goal to reach the 2024/28 olympics.

.... Go MiniWeird ! 🤛🏼

I don't think in recording pre existing conditions they're necessary implying that those things contributed to the deaths. Given that most of the deaths are in the over 80s it's not all that surprising that most people had at least one other condition. You'd need to do a proper statistical analysis to work out which ones were disproportionate

The initial rise seemed to be caused mostly by returning holidaymakers and parties, both of which have tailed off since school restarted - firms have their annual summer holidays during school hols.

I don't think we can really say it's the same in Scotland though.

NS lifted lockdown a lot later that the rest of the UK.

Although restrictions is some ways are more relaxed than in England - under 12's do not need to socially distance at all.

I do think that mixing indoors is probably playing a big part. 3 households can meet indoors as long as they socially distance (max 8 I think) and kids can be playing, hugging as normal.

England has had much better weather and so much more can be done outside.

I do agree about schools not being a significant factor - i tiptoe around that subject as I know its such an emotive one.

@itsgettingweird

This may have been discussed so sorry if I'm repeating a previous conversation.

Has there been any discussion about why the higher number of cases is centred in the north western area of U.K.
I know it's not all NW but there seems to be a certain geographical area worst affected?

I know originally SE had higher figures and then moved into London. Is it that they got the cases later due to lockdown? Something to do with density or temperature?

It's just the SW and SE are hugs tourist areas and have been packed during the summer with so many people remaining in England and from what I've seen cases haven't risen at a great rate. And I'd assume people from NW have travelled to these areas? (Though my assumption could be way out!)

Plymouth seems to have had a bigger problem with people returning from Greece than people visiting from around the U.K.?

In truth the North West has had some of the highest case rates almost from the outset - regionally it soon moved ahead of London and unlike London which really got down to quite low levels and below the overall England position the North West, as a region, has not seen that.

There is a danger though of viewing the North West as a homogeneous blob - over half the LAs currently have case rates per 100,000 lower than the overall position in England. Cumbria had cases rates over 80 per 100,000 in the first half of April,yet since then it has come down and despite the odd more localised blip has been mainly in step with or slightly below the national picture.

I'd imagine population density, perhaps more inter-generational living allied to cramped living conditions and higher levels of deprivation all contribute. Mapping the LSOA level case info (which is now sort of published) against the most recent LSOA deprivation data might start to draw this out.

A look at the news indicates a surprising number of local raves and other illegal parties in areas like Trafford, Stockport etc over the past couple of months. Other areas have had one-offs too; Wales getting 3000 is spectacular, at least they were outside. Is anyone aware of data that could compare those with regional infection rates? Likewise anything that can separate outbreaks (whether care home / factory etc, I guess parties come under "other") from community spread?

Mrex ONS or PHE weekly reports might summarise outbreaks around the country, as the RKI daily reports do

On the studies thread, I recently posted a paper that gives a very detailled analysis of nearly all German outbreaks, divided into types, ages, number infected etc

Something similar for the UK would be very helpful, say by the ONS, to understand the situation in the UK, but maybe sufficient data does not yet exist.
The German study looks to be based on meticulous track & trace reports, so probably any comparable UK study would be of cases occurring this Autumn or later.

In Scotland the schools going back, although not driving transmission, has added another layer of normality back to life. I'm definitely out and about more, as are others. And there's been an increase in testing as the kids get colds. The CMO for Scotland, has released a letter reminding people to only test for temperature, new continuous cough and smell/taste change or loss.
The weather has at times been rubbish, so there's much less socialising outside, in public.

I can't see data for Scottish regions on the dashboard etc, so for that I use Travelling tabby

• I could put that in the OP ?? ==> What does anyone think ? Or is there a better one for Scotland - the OP is currently too Anglocentric imo

TT has Scottish LAs, hospitalisations, cases etc and lots of graphics which I find helpful, but they are an individual not an organisation

www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

I like the travelling tabby site, he's doing a good job with it, I vote yes.

@boys3

trying again with the North West, might have helped if the correct file had been uploaded. Apologies for any confusion caused.

Thanks for sharing this i live in the NW obviously there's a huge difference in cases per 100,000 between some areas. The area i live in shows between 5-6 cases per 100,000 I've no idea if this is a low figure nationally or just a low figure regionally, and even the lowest figures in the NW are still high compared to the rest of the country? Hope ive explained what I want to know well enough , apologies if I'm making no sense whatsoever

The CMO for Scotland, has released a letter reminding people to only test for temperature, new continuous cough and smell/taste change or loss

I know that this is a worry about running out of tests but it is a bit of a concern because several recent studies have shown different symptoms exhibited in different age groups, in particular the young who seem to get more gastric symptoms. Certainly, the cough is not as prevalent a symptom as people think. I remember back in March people being told to go to work and school at that point because such emphasis was put on the cough. At that point , they were saying temperature AND cough and had to change that pretty sharpish. The number on symptom is the temperature and , unfortunately for testing capacity, that does go hand in hand with a n awful lot of ailments (as does a cough). Plus, I do wonder how many people own thermometers. More than did back in March but still not a large number of people. I do think they are going to have to ramp up testing availability and supply sharpish.

@MRex

I like the travelling tabby site, he's doing a good job with it, I vote yes.

Me too. This is my main source of Scotland info.