Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Thanks, Mrex, Patricia All 4 nations will be in next OP

Shortage of tests is a change - probably explains that letter in the Guardian we were discussing

The number of tests isn't norticeably up the last 2 weeks, so it looks as if the available test slots are just being taken up early.

Might indeed be checking holiday bugs before school or work

More anecdota - am in a NW Covid hotspot. Used Gov website several times last week to look for a test. The town I'm in has at least 4 test centres for c150k people - two are walk through and drive through, one is walk through only, one is drive through only. All had some availability each time I checked - the only reason I checked three days before booking one was due to needing to fit around my work.

Took test Sat am - think the drive thru site was not operating at capacity. (Result by text 22 hrs later)

Every time I drive past the walk thru only test site there is no one waiting so would say that is not at capacity either.

Is it possible too many testing resources are being thrown at the NW so other areas are now struggling to meet the nationwide increase in demand?

Anyone planning a holiday to Portugal:
That may soon be back again on the quarantine list

preprint on symptom groups - lost of sense of taste and smell in all of them www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.12.20129056v1.full.pdf+html

and a reminder to watch for Covid toes and skin problems, especially in children

www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/07/23/covid-toes-are-caused-by-coronavirus-infecting-the-lining-of-blood-vessels-says-new-study/

covid.joinzoe.com/us-post/skin-rash-covid

That's a fab table. Also shows that despite some really tough times in some regions as a country we are still handling this well when compared to a good proportion or Europe and other large countries.

Although I'd love to know the logic of quarantining people coming from Bugaria, which has almost the same -day incidence as the UK

and in particular quarantining from Canada and Singapore, which are considerably lower than the UK !

The UK still has more restrictions than most European countries, in particular on how many people can meet, patrties etc

That reduces the effect of superspreaders

Some people moan .... but these measures are effective

Can I ask opinions on here re risk of car sharing? With mitigations: masks, open windows, touchpoints cleaned before and after use. 2 x 15 min journeys once a week.

Don't think have seen any research on this, but have just seen that NHS T&T treats any car journey as close contact.

Am debating giving my daughters' friend a lift to an activity. (Both girls mid teens). I imagine lots of parents will have these kind of debates; lots won't even consider the risks....

As regards testing availability, I know locally there has been a massive rise in testing due to colds. Schools have been back a few weeks here, and a huge number of kids are off ill.

The Scottish government have issued guidance asking people not to test with usual cold sniffles, but only if it is one of the main 3 covid symptoms.

@Choux

More anecdota - am in a NW Covid hotspot. Used Gov website several times last week to look for a test. The town I'm in has at least 4 test centres for c150k people - two are walk through and drive through, one is walk through only, one is drive through only. All had some availability each time I checked - the only reason I checked three days before booking one was due to needing to fit around my work.

Took test Sat am - think the drive thru site was not operating at capacity. (Result by text 22 hrs later)

Every time I drive past the walk thru only test site there is no one waiting so would say that is not at capacity either.

Is it possible too many testing resources are being thrown at the NW so other areas are now struggling to meet the nationwide increase in demand?

Bristol has had 3 more test centres added - Victoria rooms, Paulton, Netham park to the ones at Bristol airport and Ashton gate (NHS staff only) , but still when I try to book I get directed to Newport, Wales. Shortage of staff perhaps?

Being directed to Newport sounds more like the computer system still being faulty.

As for car sharing - I think shared transport was being suggested as implicated in one factory outbreak. I think unless you are high risk I'd be inclined to ask them to sniff something and if they can tell you what it smells of I'd stick them in the back with a mask on. Close contact is defined as being with someone for 15 minutes, so just on the border of infection risk time anyway.

Re testing, our school has told us if dd has any one of a list of symptoms including unusual fatigue and stomach pain she must not attend school and must quarantine or get a test and come back after negative results. That would go against the govt criteria for testing so not sure how enforceable that one will be.

They are having issues in Scotland now with capacity. That said, I would like people to be tested rather than not.

I would like people to be tested rather than not.
Actually I don't know about that @Piggywaspushed, each test costs money to process. People using them who don't have covid symptoms but "need" a test to go on holiday or to satisfy anxiety about some sneezing / headache / sniffle will use up booking capacity, taxpayer money, and resources that are not limitless even if they are not currently in short supply (test reagents, PPE etc). The environmental wastage from all these tests, PPE etc blows my mind sometimes. Current capacity is nearly 350k per day, that's 2.45 million per week; in a high risk area it's good to do extra testing, but at such low positivity rates surely the taxpayer cost of satisfying anxiety demand is too great?!

agree that people should be responsible about testing, including not having one when unnecessary. It is a waste if it's just anxiety.

Saw this "Trafford has risen from 21.1 to 35.8. Crucially, officials say there has been a significant surge among over-65s, the age group most vulnerable to coronavirus. " The Tory MP should be hanging his head in shame.

re symptoms for tests:

Coronavirus smell loss 'different from cold and flu'

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53810610

When Covid-19 patients have smell loss it tends to be sudden and severe.
And they usually don't have a blocked, stuffy or runny nose - most people with coronavirus can still breathe freely.

Another thing that sets them apart is their "true" loss of taste.
It's not that their taste is somewhat impaired because their sense of smell is out of action, say the researchers in the journal Rhinologyy*.
Coronavirus patients with loss of taste really cannot tell the difference between bitter or sweet.

Experts suspect this is because the pandemic virus affects the nerve cells directly involved with smell and taste sensation.

I take your point about unnecessary testing. I think my views are coloured by working with children who often have such vague symptoms.

I did hear if a school that was testing it's staff once a fortnight . The poster swore blind this was true and was an entire London borough.

The testing site is currently directing both me (North Surrey) and DP (North London) to....Cardiff. Which suggests a technical problem rather than a shortage at the moment, although it may be deliberate in the sense of "switching off access to England centres while we sort something out"....

Local Councillors in Trafford have written to Govt requesting regulations remain apparently...

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/traffords-covid-19-rate-spiking-18859287
Trafford increasing cases despite fewer tests, Bolton is being released from restrictions despite a massive rise in cases sending them back into the red. Greater Manchester is a shambles today.

Today's numbers - 1,295. Sends 7 day average for UK by date reported up, but for England actually very slightly down because 254 of those are NI/Scotland/Wales. Deaths 3.

Healthcare data all of a tizzy because the trusts that didn't report over the weekend/BH seem to have today, so we have just 32 admittances in England yet number in hospital has jumped to 472 from 305 (305 clearly incorrect..!).

Thabks @alreadytaken, but see here from Test and Trace:

"NHS T&T:
if you have had any close contact with anyone other than members of your household. We are interested in in the 48 hours before you developed symptoms and the time since you developed symptoms. Close contact means:

•	having <span class="underline">face-to-face contact with someone less than 1 metre away</span> (this will include times where you have worn a face covering or a face mask)

•	<span class="underline">spending more than 15 minutes within 2 metres of someone</span>

•	travelling in a car or other small vehicle with someone (even on a short journey) or close to them on a plane"

• so it doesn't have to be for at least 15 mins if it's in a car - it's the same as less than 1m apart for any length of time. I don't think this is widely known.

If you keep the windows shut in your car then it's effectively indoors, as in a plane. If you have your windows open it isnt. Not quite the same as being outdoors but the ventilation will be very good. Windows open and mask on and I might be prepared to do it myself with drivers window and passenger window open and passenger in the seat back seat across, not directly behind, me (although not if I was in Trafford). But I gave up relying on government guidance sometime back and started to ask what the science really says and what the real risk is.

Yes @alreadytaken I know what you mean. With 3 in the car one has to sit behind another but then my daughter and her friend will be sitting together in classes anyway!

Germany
RKI weekly report on suspected origins of infections, using track & trace info

In week 11, suspected cases brought in from abroad was 46%
Travel restrictions during lockdown brought this down to near-zero, but it rose to nearly that by week 34

See % of these infections in Figure 5, marked by red line, with dark blue bars numbers of cases from abroad
Table 5 lists the numbers of infections suspected per country

"among the cases with reports of a place of infection in Kosovo and Turkey, Romania and Albania children and middle-aged persons are over-represented, indicating possible family related visits.

On the other hand, in the cases with a probable place of infection in Spain, Croatia and Bulgaria, persons between 20-29 years of age were over-represented, suggesting tourism for recreation and pleasure."