First School Closure in Scotland

[FlySheMust]

metro.co.uk/2020/08/24/coronavirus-outbreak-shuts-school-17-staff-two-pupils-test-positive-13169219/?fbclid=IwAR3hIqGrO5MDwKgBrRiQsvlOchvOv8umJ52_ZdIQlyTMn4jLhVRf3aw-Wpc

Makes "safe to open" look a bit silly.

@EducatingArti

You were. You specifically said"but a teacher is more likely to catch it at Tesco's"

Teenagers are as likely to get and spread coronavirus as adults are. Infection is more likely the longer you spend time at close quarters with someone.
I'd prefer facing a queue of adults, all socially distanced and wearing masks, where I can also wear a mask and am behind a perspex screen than spending a hour at a time in a cramped crowded room with poor ventilation with different classes of teenagers who are not socially distanced and wearing masks.
Dentists are not allowed to see very many people each day at present and where full medical grade PPE.
Hairdressers do stay in contact with people for a more significant time but will be wearing masks/visors and can ask clients to do so and will see far fewer people in a day than your average secondary teacher who may see 120 to 150 students.

NHS dentists you mean? Because private ones are back fully. (I own a dental lab, so I know that - NHS ones are being paid the same to see 20 percent).

Again, youre talking about hairdressers seeing "people" i.e. adults mainly. Not children.

The CMO and deputy CMO have said in the past couple of days kids are more likely to catch flu or be hit by a bus than contract (and spread) covid. Im happy to listen to them.

Because palace as I have said numerous times I read the PHE surveillance reports available on gov website and ONS studies.

The five breakdowns of infections. Age group of infections. Deaths in various jobs.

You've yet to tell me where I can source a peer reviewed paper that the virus is getting weaker. I asked so I could be reassured your claims were correct. Can you do this?

You did also state as a lister above said that a teacher was more likely to catch it in Tesco. Apart form this being unsubstantiated because this information hasn't ever been tracked and recorded you then back tracked.

And in case your interested statistically one of the highest risk occupations is building/construction and security. And it's males who have highest risk occupationally because these are male dominated roles. Or because they are make dominated they are the riskiest.

I think only the deputy CMO said they are more likely to be killed by a bus than Covid19 which is very different to what you have said?
We aren't talking about children though, we are talking about teachers who are adults, many over 50 and with other comorbidities.

@itsgettingweird

Because palace as I have said numerous times I read the PHE surveillance reports available on gov website and ONS studies.

The five breakdowns of infections. Age group of infections. Deaths in various jobs.

You've yet to tell me where I can source a peer reviewed paper that the virus is getting weaker. I asked so I could be reassured your claims were correct. Can you do this?

You did also state as a lister above said that a teacher was more likely to catch it in Tesco. Apart form this being unsubstantiated because this information hasn't ever been tracked and recorded you then back tracked.

And in case your interested statistically one of the highest risk occupations is building/construction and security. And it's males who have highest risk occupationally because these are male dominated roles. Or because they are make dominated they are the riskiest.

No probs - can you point me to a peer reviewed paper showing that the virus isnt getting weaker? As you seem certain it isnt so Id be interested to read this. You can talk about jobs that are more likely to catch it - and mention building and construction? So not teaching then? Or is it just that people that work in those jobs live in deprived areas? Isnt it interesting to you that a doctor or nurse working with covid patients isnt the most likely to catch it? Im sorry, but youre not going to persuade me that I need to be frantically worried as you are.

Children are more likely to be killed by a traffic

Very different for middle-aged teachers

Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3.full.pdf

"The estimated age-specific IFRs are close to zero for children and younger adults ..... but rises exponentially with age
.....
middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is more than 50 times greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident"

@EducatingArti

I think only the deputy CMO said they are more likely to be killed by a bus than Covid19 which is very different to what you have said? We aren't talking about children though, we are talking about teachers who are adults, many over 50 and with other comorbidities.

Youre right it was Harries that said that. Whitty just said that not being in school was far more harmful than being in school. Ergo they both agree children should be in school.

Im sorry I thought the thread was about schools closing in Scotland and not specifically the effect on teachers but on the wider community. If "we are not talking about children" then I wont bother posting, I thought this was mumsnet not a teaching forum.

"- can you point me to a peer reviewed paper showing that the virus isnt getting weaker? "

Possible explanation, but if you want to claim it is getting weaker, you need to provide the evidence

FT Overview: Why coronavirus deaths are falling even as cases are rising

• Greatly increased testing catching a much higher proportion of infections with mild or no symptoms.
  Hence likely that current cases are only a tiny % of the March-April peak cases

• Significantly lower age profile of infections than a few months ago
  Age is the absolutely dominant risk factor, far more than almost any health condition

• Improved and more prompt treatment & meds for those with more severe symptoms

• Lower doses of coronavirus in the community likely reduces the chance of serious illness

• Seasonality: In summer, immune systems are normally stronger, while at the same time coronavirus does not thrive as much in hotter & humid conditions

• Virus mutation: Unproven and it would be unusually quick for this, but some speculation that genetic change is making the virus less virulent as it passes through human populations

https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7

@BigChocFrenzy

Children are more likely to be killed by a traffic

Very different for middle-aged teachers

Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications

[[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3.full.pdf]]

"The estimated age-specific IFRs are close to zero for children and younger adults ..... but rises exponentially with age
.....
middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is more than 50 times greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident"

0.1% chance of dying in 50s - 60s.

[quote BigChocFrenzy]"- can you point me to a peer reviewed paper showing that the virus isnt getting weaker? "

Possible explanation, but if you want to claim it is getting weaker, you need to provide the evidence

FT Overview: Why coronavirus deaths are falling even as cases are rising

• Greatly increased testing catching a much higher proportion of infections with mild or no symptoms.
  Hence likely that current cases are only a tiny % of the March-April peak cases

• Significantly lower age profile of infections than a few months ago
  Age is the absolutely dominant risk factor, far more than almost any health condition

• Improved and more prompt treatment & meds for those with more severe symptoms

• Lower doses of coronavirus in the community likely reduces the chance of serious illness

• Seasonality: In summer, immune systems are normally stronger, while at the same time coronavirus does not thrive as much in hotter & humid conditions

• Virus mutation: Unproven and it would be unusually quick for this, but some speculation that genetic change is making the virus less virulent as it passes through human populations

[[https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7]][/quote]
Im not "claiming" anything - Im saying cases up but hospitalisations down. Thats the stats we are being fed. If it DOESNT mean its getting weaker what DOES it mean? Im literally asking and happy to listen if anyone can suggest!

Are there any peer reviewed studies showing it is getting weaker?

The DCMO said we didn’t need a lockdown, didn’t need masks and didn’t need track and trace previously. Forgive me if I listen to all the science rather than those that suit my cognitive dissonance.

We still don’t know. The data for full schools without distancing isn’t there yet.

I hope they’re right. But we don’t know.

@GailWeathers9

Are there any peer reviewed studies showing it is getting weaker?

The DCMO said we didn’t need a lockdown, didn’t need masks and didn’t need track and trace previously. Forgive me if I listen to all the science rather than those that suit my cognitive dissonance.

We still don’t know. The data for full schools without distancing isn’t there yet.

I hope they’re right. But we don’t know.

Are there any peer reviewed studies showing it isnt getting weaker?

www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30817-5.pdf

So far there is no evidence that infection
with SARS-CoV-2 containing the G614
variant will lead to more severe disease.
By examining clinical data from 999
COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the United
Kingdom, Korber et al. (2020) found that
patients infected with viruses containing
G614 had higher levels of virus RNA, but
they did not find a difference in hospitalization outcomes.

Is there are echo in here? :)

My question was a response to you asking that,

We don’t know! There hasn’t been time to do such peer reviewed studies. Such studies would need to compare vulnerable people catching It again to see how it effects them which is kind of unethical.

It’s summer and the vulnerable are being cautious. Data shows it’s mainly the younger generations catching it. Logic suggesrs these factors are playing a part.

As we move towards winter, if it spreads more widely into other groups, then a study would be possible.

You seem well intentioned and I want it to be gone as much as you.

People thought the same towards the end of the summer before the second wave of Spanish flu. They thought it had got weaker. It’s human nature to want it to be gone.

Let’s not make the same mistakes they did though eh?

I do not want a second wave and another lockdown.

"0.1% chance of dying in 50s - 60s"

That's wrong

That paper states death rate for those who catch the virus is
0.3% for 50s
1.3% for 60s

It's still a small risk, but we should post the correct figures

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3.full.pdf

"Im not "claiming" anything - Im saying cases up but hospitalisations down. Thats the stats we are being fed. If it DOESNT mean its getting weaker what DOES it mean? Im literally asking and happy to listen if anyone can suggest!"

We've been going into this in detail with charts on the statistics thread #15

As I posted upthread, it is a mixture of reasons, the main ones being:

• Cases are in fact massively down from the March-April peak - but cases now look high because of vastly more testing and much lower % positive in tests
  Cases have been increasing the last few weeks, but still only about 1/30 of peak levels (my rough calculations for Germany, but Uk would be similar)

• The % of elderly people infected has dropped massively and they are 80-90% of deaths
  I calculated on stats threads that deaths were about what I'd expect when I compared the average age of infection and real case numbers at peak vs now

• Doctors know more now about treatment of serious cases

• Summer means our immune systems are much healthier and virus is also probably weaker in the sun

Scientists say no evidence that virus has more than seasonal weakness,
but we'll have more evidence either way if cases rise a lot in winter and particularly when more elderly people catch it, with everyone being indoors more.

Palace I'm not frantically worried
It's you who is coming across as frantic on this thread which is Probably why your posts are standing out. Not just to me but to other posters.

Ive had Covid. It's horrible. Any precautions that can be taken in any industry to protect even 1 person catching it is worthwhile.

Schools have now got better guidance and protection. I'm glad. It shows it's needed and will hopefully mean more chance of continuous education.

"Im not "claiming" anything - Im saying cases up but hospitalisations down. Thats the stats we are being fed. If it DOESNT mean its getting weaker what DOES it mean? Im literally asking and happy to listen if anyone can suggest!"

Apart from the fact you contradict yourself repeatedly.

I've already said and told you the one surveillance reports have the detail.

It's because case rates in 15-44 are rising and over 65+ are falling.

So the people catching it are less risk of death.

But if they are people in employment they will still be off work for minimum of 10 days. And it may lead to mass testing and closures of industry or school.

My concern is school closures because this is my area of work (I'm not a teacher). If schools close it affects families I work with.

Of course there will be occasions where cases are found at schools
How many of these cases reported specifically here (either directly or indirectly) resulted in illness or death? If none then it’s a bit of a non-story isn’t it? It’s not exactly rocket science that some people are occasionally going to contract a virus that’s currently circulating in low levels, and when they do measures will be taken to help ensure the spread is minimised (bubbles closing etc). If you live with/ interact with clinically vulnerable people then you need to make your OWN choices about how you live your life and that INCLUDES teachers (if you are vulnerable and hysterical please do resign because frankly you are not capable of doing your job properly so no one should expect you to do it).
But please for the love of God let the people who want their children to have an education just get on with doing so as sensibly as we can.

@itsgettingweird going to have to agree to disagree as you seem to be targeting everything I write and it's tiresome. I'm happy to send my kids back to school. Community transmission is low. Less people are calling 111, less people are in hospital. We don't know how many people had it at the peak so we don't know how many of us already have had it. I trust my kids teachers as professionals to keep my children safe. Every teacher I know in "real life" can't wait to get back to work. Yes there will be outbreaks but this is what it is now and I am choosing to be positive. So just going to leave this here as the negativity gets me down.

@YouSetTheTone
If you live with/ interact with clinically vulnerable people then you need to make your OWN choices about how you live your life
Which is exactly what we are doing, and we ate doing it very well - however it's tricky when the choices for us with regard ds are...
-Send in to full classroom, no SD
-Deregister (and possibly lose hard fought for EHCP support and potential of special school place moving forward)
-Get fined.

Every teacher I know in "real life" can't wait to get back to work.

I am a teacher.

I can't wait to go back to work, and this is what I would say to anyone who asks me publicly about it, as would any of my colleagues.

HOWEVER, as an over 50 with an underlying condition, I am also deeply worried about the Covid-safety of my workplace, my DD's school and school transport, and my DH's (educational) workplace. That bit I don't mention to anyone outside my immediate family unless within the anonymity of MN.

Teaching requires me to act, all the time. I act to pupils, i act to parents - I will put my professional face on, and act for all the world as if there is nothing else iIwould rather be doing than facing over 30 children with dubious hygiene, many of whose families no longer obey even the most basic of Covid restrictions. i am sure anyone who met me would say 'Oh, there's nothing she wants more than to be back in school.'....

if you are vulnerable and hysterical please do resign because frankly you are not capable of doing your job properly so no one should expect you to do it

The resignation date is October, for leaving at Christmas. Until then, the immunocompromised, the diabetic, those awaiting or in the middle of cancer treatment ... and of course those caring for the very elderly when they get home from school ...,. will continue to teach. Shielding is 'paused'...because without the shielded, there would be nobody to stand in front of your children's class for every lesson.

Oh, don't be daft! Teachers getting Covid19 has a massive impact on children. At best disruption to classes. At worst school closures and significant disruption to education or even the grief of dealing with a teacher dying. That's also why it is important that schools open in such a way that infection doesn't spread. If teachers get sick, schools close.
And have you thought of this..some people might also be parents and teachers?
And you were the one that started to talk about teachers being more likely to get Covid in Tesco.

@EducatingArti

Oh, don't be daft! Teachers getting Covid19 has a massive impact on children. At best disruption to classes. At worst school closures and significant disruption to education or even the grief of dealing with a teacher dying. That's also why it is important that schools open in such a way that infection doesn't spread. If teachers get sick, schools close. And have you thought of this..some people might also be parents and teachers? And you were the one that started to talk about teachers being more likely to get Covid in Tesco.

Do you need to be rude? Do you need to? Would you speak like that to me in person? Have I said anywhere I don't care about teachers? Of course I do. I have 3 in my family alone! My initial musings was we don't know where people catch it - that yes they could catch it in Tesco or school. It's everywhere BUT its not as prevalent as it was back in March when schools were open and no SD or other practices were in place. I am not stupid. I understand that if there is an outbreak a school would close and that's likely to happen. Again for the last time I was simply stating that instead of chucking up fear when a school closes let's look at the actual facts of it before scaring people - how many pupils or staff in that Scottish school became seriously ill? That's the point.