First School Closure in Scotland

[FlySheMust]

metro.co.uk/2020/08/24/coronavirus-outbreak-shuts-school-17-staff-two-pupils-test-positive-13169219/?fbclid=IwAR3hIqGrO5MDwKgBrRiQsvlOchvOv8umJ52_ZdIQlyTMn4jLhVRf3aw-Wpc

Makes "safe to open" look a bit silly.

@itsgettingweird

Palace it's great less people are currently dying.

Shielded people have only been out for 3 weeks.

PahE surveillance shows the increase of infections is for 15-44 age group who are least at risk.

The numbers of over 65 who are infected has decreased and the over 85's is negliable. These are the people who generally die.

We'd all love for it to be becoming less fatal. But there is no scientific evidence this is so and a random MNer who wishes it so won't convince me or anybody else.

Regardless of how many are dying though it is ripping through factories and now schools.

This is having an effect on people's income and children's education.

So I personally do not think deaths being low makes the risk any lower.

I would honestly love to hear why you think just because factory and school staff aren't dying currently from Covid it's fine that these places are having outbreaks?

I do wish you would read what I'm saying before replying. I haven't said it's just about less people dying. I'm talking about less people getting very ill with it. Which is statistically what is happening. Even in those areas where the rate is high (Leicester, Blackburn for example) the rate of hospitalisations was already still going down before further measures were introduced (so do they need to be). Your language of it "ripping through schools" is not in reality what is happening. And even if it does it doesn't mean that people getting it will be severely ill. Viruses mutate. They have to otherwise they'd kill everyone and die out! The virus needs to become mild. And as for your other comments as you say I'm not going to ignore the data because some random person on MN is obviously scared and enjoys spreading that fear.

From the information I have seen (joint statement from the chief medical officers most recently) the risk of younger children passing it on is lower than for older children and adults.

The risk appears mainly to be teacher to teacher. Assuming that is correct then there's little difference between a mainstream school and any other workplace. In fact given that there are often only one or two adults in a classroom then social distancing is easier than it would be elsewhere (avoiding staff rooms obviously). Or have I got that wrong?

Palace schools aren't open in England yet. A quick google of S Korea, Scotland and Germany and Israel will show you what has happened in schools that have opened.

We need better measures than are currently in place to protect our communities. Not to keep them closed but better prevention to decrease the risk and minimise closures.

This is for school children and staff and also their own vulnerable family members who are at risk

I am reading what you're saying. I promise. But you keep mentioning death rates and I couldn't work out how that was relevant to mass closures if schools. Death rate in Scotland was very low for ages before ours. They just closed a special school with medically vulnerable pupils due to an outbreak. I couldn't get the connection you were making as I see them as 2 different things.

I hope no more school staff do die. There was 65 who caught it before lockdown who sadly lost their lives. 🤞 there's no more

Palace I'm not sure if I asked above but I am very interested in reading these peer reviewed papers that show the virus is mutating to less fatal. My mum has terminal cancer and so far she is afraid she won't outlive this pandemic and it's stay home and die of cancer or go out and risk dying of Covid. Any evidence it's mutating to less deadly would be great to read.

@itsgettingweird again you e brought up death rates when I was clearly talking about hospitalisations. And the point I made about the fact that yes that school was closed but do we know if anyone is actually "ill"? What if they have it but no symptoms or midlly? That's the point I'm making. Even if it is (to use your words) ripping through schools if it's not making people very ill does it matter? We live with chicken pox, norovirus etc let's hope that this is moving in the same direction!

"The risk appears mainly to be teacher to teacher."

Much as this is the government narrative the who is recognising the risk of older kids transmitting the virus by recommending masks for over 12 wherever cannot be observed.
As long as the government policy is to only test symptomatic people/staff they will continue to find more teachers infected than pupils and proclaim the teachers are infecting each other. Funny how in other workplace outbreaks everyone gets tested symptomatic or not.

There is a reason Germany makes pupils wear masks and France has introduced them in classroom after all.

[quote palacegirl77]@itsgettingweird again you e brought up death rates when I was clearly talking about hospitalisations. And the point I made about the fact that yes that school was closed but do we know if anyone is actually "ill"? What if they have it but no symptoms or midlly? That's the point I'm making. Even if it is (to use your words) ripping through schools if it's not making people very ill does it matter? We live with chicken pox, norovirus etc let's hope that this is moving in the same direction![/quote]
It matters because it takes it back into the community and then that increases community transmission and then increases risk of older people catching it (and grandparents where it's not known child has it as asymptomatic.)

Hospitalisations and deaths could increase then. Though every fibre in my body hopes not.

But the other reason it matters is the disruption to education. Also parents having to take time off work and not being paid. I work with some of the most vulnerable families of school aged children and even just infection has an affect on them hugely.

I know (purely from MSM reports!) the staff were symptomatic hence the testing and 2 pupils hence why they were tested.
They are not testing pupils in schools if there is an outbreak. So no one knows how many are infected asymptomatically.

Therefore they also can't complete a trace of infection.

That's the issue those of us who work in this environment are concerned about. Not just illness or how Ill. But who, who does that risk. Can families work. Can they afford food because they aren't working. Is the child able to access education because they don't have IT access at home.

The CMOs letter is the government narrative, ignored asymptomatic transmission and is based on data from socially distanced schools.

If you look widely at evidence and reports, it’s not clear at all

It is interesting to compare the arguments about hospitalisations and deaths with America where the same thing happened because unlike initial outbreaks it was younger people getting infected. Let it get too prevalent though and it spreads to older age groups then the trends may change.

The same thing happened in Europe. After lockdown deaths and hospitalisations dropped and stayed low but then people get complacent and started thinking it's mutated to a safer form, it's not dangerous anymore we are overreacting etc behaviour changed and cases rose quickly.( Bear in mind France and Spain opened up at least a month before us.). That is without taking into account we are heading into winter.

Not sure things here will turn out any different😩

Ultimately then there has to be some.common sense from people doesn't there. Don't let the grandkids see the grandparents if they're at risk. Dont take kids to the supermarket etc. But we absolutely can't shut down schools to "save the elderly" when the elderly can stay at home etc. They're not working. Most old people I know aren't even happy wearing masks yet we should force our kids to to help them out? Our kids have sacrificed enough. People need to assess their own risks to others - my kids need to go to school. If that means we don't spend time with my dad I'd make that sacrifice. If teachers are at risk they should get signed off with stress and resign. Maybe there should be mandatory health checks for teachers like there are with firefighters etc. Our kids have suffered enough.

People need to assess their own risks to others - my kids need to go to school. If that means we don't spend time with my dad I'd make that sacrifice.

I agree with this. Chris Whitty said a few weeks ago that basically some things may have to be curtailed so that schools can reopen. We've been going into PILs house because they just can't physically cope anymore but after reading another thread me and DH have agreed that only he will go inside when DD is back at school. DD was helping do stuff inside but now she and I will stand in the front garden whilst DH gets in and out as quickly as possible.

@Waspnest

People need to assess their own risks to others - my kids need to go to school. If that means we don't spend time with my dad I'd make that sacrifice.

I agree with this. Chris Whitty said a few weeks ago that basically some things may have to be curtailed so that schools can reopen. We've been going into PILs house because they just can't physically cope anymore but after reading another thread me and DH have agreed that only he will go inside when DD is back at school. DD was helping do stuff inside but now she and I will stand in the front garden whilst DH gets in and out as quickly as possible.

Same. I think it's the common sense approach. I'm totally aware that with mine restarting school there is a much greater chance of them catching it and although I'm not concerned they'd be ill I wouldn't want them to spread it. My dad totally understands. Probably makes sense with winter approaching anyway.

If I were a teacher I would be so fucking scared.

Why do people KEEP telling us kids aren't at risk. (Well v low risk) WE KNOW THAT. !! What no one seems to want to acknowledge is that teachers WILL catch it . There will also be teacher deaths.

My need to have my child educated in a school setting every day does not outweigh a teachers right to life.

I would be interested to know how many teachers have already resigned or how many do resign within the next 3 months.

This is complete madness. There is no balance. It should be rotated. One week in/one week online for secondary school. Half the pupils to give teachers half a chance. ..

Viruses do not stop killing just because people want their kids in school. I would t do it.. I don't expect others to..

@disorganisedsecretsquirrel

If I were a teacher I would be so fucking scared.

Why do people KEEP telling us kids aren't at risk. (Well v low risk) WE KNOW THAT. !! What no one seems to want to acknowledge is that teachers WILL catch it . There will also be teacher deaths.

My need to have my child educated in a school setting every day does not outweigh a teachers right to life.

I would be interested to know how many teachers have already resigned or how many do resign within the next 3 months.

This is complete madness. There is no balance. It should be rotated. One week in/one week online for secondary school. Half the pupils to give teachers half a chance. ..

Viruses do not stop killing just because people want their kids in school. I would t do it.. I don't expect others to..

But teachers are more likely to catch it at Tesco than around kids right? And the numbers in your local community are low and being monitored. I genuinely would rather work around 30 children than in a pub or a factory. Ultimately if this is the situation for condoning closing schools then don't delivery drivers, supermarket workers, carers, shop staff etc all need protecting too?

No they are not more likely to catch it in Tesco because contact with others is usually for seconds at a time, most people should be wearing masks and staying 2 m away from others and Tesco is limiting the number of shoppers at any one time.
In a secondary classroom with 32 fourteen year olds none of whom are wearing a mask and who can't socially distance because the classroom is way too small and where ventilation may be poor and where everyone is crammed together for an hour at a time and when teenagers are more likely to be asymptomatic so not isolating, then the virus is way more likely to spread both to teachers and students.

Conditions that affect the spread of Covid:

Poor ventilation
Distance to other people
Amount of people you come into contact with
Amount of time in contact with same people
Temperature

Why would teachers be more likely to catch covid at a supermarket, where they will pass maybe 30 people for a few seconds in a huge warehouse type building, rather than schools, where they may come into contact with 300 people a week, for an hour each time, in cramped classrooms?

The only reason would be if children were magically non-infectious. And we have no solid evidence whether that is true at all.

@EducatingArti

No they are not more likely to catch it in Tesco because contact with others is usually for seconds at a time, most people should be wearing masks and staying 2 m away from others and Tesco is limiting the number of shoppers at any one time. In a secondary classroom with 32 fourteen year olds none of whom are wearing a mask and who can't socially distance because the classroom is way too small and where ventilation may be poor and where everyone is crammed together for an hour at a time and when teenagers are more likely to be asymptomatic so not isolating, then the virus is way more likely to spread both to teachers and students.

I don't understand why some people refuse to acknowledge don't understand this.

@Nellodee

Conditions that affect the spread of Covid:

Poor ventilation
Distance to other people
Amount of people you come into contact with
Amount of time in contact with same people
Temperature

Why would teachers be more likely to catch covid at a supermarket, where they will pass maybe 30 people for a few seconds in a huge warehouse type building, rather than schools, where they may come into contact with 300 people a week, for an hour each time, in cramped classrooms?

The only reason would be if children were magically non-infectious. And we have no solid evidence whether that is true at all.

I wasn't talking about a teacher catching it at a supermarket. I was saying people working in supermarkets coming into contact with hundreds of people, touching their shopping etc should get the same protection as teachers if needed. Again though they're more likely to catch it as they're not facing queues of children. Who have been scientifically shown not to transmit as much and certainly not be as affected. Ergo it's safer to work in a school than in a supermarket. Or a dentists. Or a hairdressers etc

@Nellodee

Conditions that affect the spread of Covid:

Poor ventilation
Distance to other people
Amount of people you come into contact with
Amount of time in contact with same people
Temperature

Why would teachers be more likely to catch covid at a supermarket, where they will pass maybe 30 people for a few seconds in a huge warehouse type building, rather than schools, where they may come into contact with 300 people a week, for an hour each time, in cramped classrooms?

The only reason would be if children were magically non-infectious. And we have no solid evidence whether that is true at all.

You missed something off the conditions list.....being around adults or being around children. Because children are less likely to transmit it. Does no-one believe that?

Do you have scientific evidence to back that up palace?

You seem to be a lone voice but you may persuade people with evidence?

But so far the reasons for lower transmission in supermarkets is use of sanitiser at doors, masks are worn, Perspex screens, social distancing.

These things won't happen in schools.

Bit of a problem though when it's the kids Dad who is at risk though. It is not just the elderly who are at risk. 15% extremely clinically vulnerable have kids under 16.

You were. You specifically said"but a teacher is more likely to catch it at Tesco's"

Teenagers are as likely to get and spread coronavirus as adults are. Infection is more likely the longer you spend time at close quarters with someone.
I'd prefer facing a queue of adults, all socially distanced and wearing masks, where I can also wear a mask and am behind a perspex screen than spending a hour at a time in a cramped crowded room with poor ventilation with different classes of teenagers who are not socially distanced and wearing masks.
Dentists are not allowed to see very many people each day at present and where full medical grade PPE.
Hairdressers do stay in contact with people for a more significant time but will be wearing masks/visors and can ask clients to do so and will see far fewer people in a day than your average secondary teacher who may see 120 to 150 students.

The evidence on them not transmitting as much it is inconclusive because there is evidence to suggest they do and don’t. The studies that say they don’t tend to be based on distancing in class. I’ll wait for conclusive evidence , as is wise.

@itsgettingweird

Do you have scientific evidence to back that up palace?

You seem to be a lone voice but you may persuade people with evidence?

But so far the reasons for lower transmission in supermarkets is use of sanitiser at doors, masks are worn, Perspex screens, social distancing.

These things won't happen in schools.

So this proves my point entirely. You say I cannot possibly claim that you wont catch it at school yet you can claim that there is a low transmission in supermarkets! What??? How do you possibly know how many people have caught it in a supermarket! Completely proved my point.

It doesn't prove your point. We know supermarkets with extra Covid measures have not been the source of any infection spikes as they would ( at least should) be picked up by track and trace. We don't know this for schools as they haven't been back under the proposed conditions. Scottish schools are the closest to English conditions that we have but they have not been back long enough to tell for certain.