Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

[quote mammon]@boys3 thank you! I had no idea you could interact with the graphs on the Gov website and go backwards. Many thanks.[/quote]
@mammon

PHE have started publishing detailed maps breaking down the cases by the local areas within each the council on the watch list. Attached is the Tameside one they published last Friday, the link shows all the document for all those councils, so several of the one local to you in the GM area.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf

I like the boys3 map suggestion. As they've been publishing the data down at a lower level as well for some weeks with seemingly no complaints, it does seem it would be useful to publish 1 and 2 cases in the same blue colour. I had thought it was suppressed for data protection, but they're in the data file, maybe they think psychologically white feels too safe if you know it's definitely zero? When of course someone could get back from holiday / work the next day bringing it back in with them.

@boys3 that's exactly what I needed! The pillar split so I could see exactly what the community spread is like. Much appreciated.

That's a very useful new link Boys
I'll add it to the next OP

I’ve just spotted this on one of the twitter accounts I follow for data and updates - infection increases broken down into age groups (England only unfortunately).

“I've been keeping track of the English infection increases by age group over the past week. They break it down into more age groups than Scotland does, which is nice!

The bulk are coming in the younger age groups, especially the 20-30 range.”

Link here:

mobile.twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1294669628300570624

ECDC 4-day incidence has UK increasing to 20 / 100,000

Spain is now 116 / 100,000 !

12 Norway
16 Germany
20 Greece
23 Cyprus
36 France
38 Sweden
43 NL
60 Belgium
88 Malta
88 Romania

BUT
Italy < 9
Immunity levels ? Their massive outbreak in the North did produce 40% antibodies in some places, but the South was not hit badly
Good SD habits after their early experiences ?

Looking at ONS (which uses death certificates)
the true death figures are somewhere between the PHE 28 and 60 day figures (PHE require a positive test)

John RR@john*_actuar

So how accurate are the new PHE definitions of COVID deaths in comparison with the ONS data?

Not very it would seem, with the 28D measure understating deaths, but the 60D measure still overstates.
So best to wait for the ONS data, or better still, look at the excess deaths.

Zoe has been decreasing again over the last 4/5 days which is nice to see.

Someone asked about Swindon - that was an Iceland distribution centre outbreak. However with any outbreak that is not promptly and swiftly handled ( I bang on about it too often but Isle of Anglesey is the gold standard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Isle%20of%20Anglesey ) you can expect a lower peak up to 7 days later when infected contacts feel sick enough to get tests and then maybe another 7 days later when their contacts get picked up. You can see the pattern at Herefordshire where the initial outbreak was on a farm - but contacts popped up later. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Herefordshire,%20County%20of

Surprised no-one has commented on replacing PHE England with an organisation that will probably be headed up by the idiot in charge of the English failed track and trace system. So you deliberately underfund an organisation, then claim it has failed, then replace it with one of your pals who has a track record of failure ( was head of talk talk and now track and trace).

PH Wales seems to have done a good job, perhaps learn from that.

Boys3 Those local area maps are really interesting. I'm surprised by the amount of areas which go from dark green to white over the period of a fortnight. That's a drop from 1% of the population being infected to none at all. Do you think that's a really good sign, meaning excellent track and trace and isolation, or a bad sign, meaning the opposite?

Not really the point of this thread so I will keep it brief but it was clear from the earliest press conferences with all the references to following the science that ministers would be looking to PHE to park the blame. Dismayed at the rumoured choice to head up the new outfit.

Was just coming to report that!

The plan is to scrap the PHE and merge it with test and trace and firm a new National institute for public health.

It's in media so what the actual truth is no ones knows.

But if it's true they are looking to replicate Germany's RKI then I'm actually thinking this could be a good thing (if they do it right!)

They were interviewing a doctor on the bbc this morning (I know her name... can't think of it) who has also worked for PHE. She said the change was a good thing and was negative about how PHE had handled the crisis so far.

Things in the media are often leaked to see what response they get. PHE was always being readied as Boris's fall guys, only an enquiry by MPs is going to say to what extent their failures were down to government interference. Heading up any replacement with the person who should be held responsible for the failure of track and trace is the recipe for another disaster.

@BigChocFrenzy

ECDC 4-day incidence has UK increasing to 20 / 100,000

Spain is now 116 / 100,000 !

12 Norway
16 Germany
20 Greece
23 Cyprus
36 France
38 Sweden
43 NL
60 Belgium
88 Malta
88 Romania

BUT
Italy < 9
Immunity levels ? Their massive outbreak in the North did produce 40% antibodies in some places, but the South was not hit badly
Good SD habits after their early experiences ?

Why would Belgium still be so high? I would think with their relativity high death rate they would have quite decent herd immunity by now so lower cases (similar to the uk?) High testing maybe? But uk has high testing too yet low cases This virus is such a puzzle.

"Why would Belgium still be so high?
I would think with their relativity high death rate they would have quite decent herd immunity by now"

Herd immunity, at least in densely populated countries - and Belgium has v high density - seems to require a high % of people to be immune

Recent serological surveys in high COVID epicentres have shown v high levels of antibodies:

• about 93% of the population of Iquitos, Peru

• 78% in some areas of New York City

• 50% in Mumbai slums

Note also that Sweden doesn't seem to have herd immunity yet, either

It never got down to the case level of countries which locked down, when all countries were at their lowest, back around early July and currently is around the incidence level of France

Hi there. Northampton lass here. I know where the Greencore is. I pass a lot of the workers when walking my dog as the industrial estate backs on to fields and parkland. There is a high percentage that walk through the area to bus routes and town centre a few miles away. I haven’t noticed any breaches of social distancing and I live a within a couple of miles. I know of one person who had CV and they are hospital staff. None of my family know of any cases either. There is also a huge employer (Nationwide BS) and haven’t heard of many cases there and I know several employees. Hoping this outbreak is contained.

Nationwide is over the road from Greencore.

Thanks Bigchoc

Would also add that residents of Northampton have not been contacted about higher cases. The only info I have is because I keep an eye on figures and there was a week or two when the digital traffic boards warned of high cases in the area s but all easily missed if you’re not looking or not wanting to hear it.

Some local authorities have obviously been much more proactive than others. Pretty impressed by the response in Hounslow.

The global health division of public Health England, responsible for "Protecting the UK from emerging international threats, maintaining and developing relations with the WHO and other international and national public health agencies has 30 staff. I wonder how many will be in the new organisation? Test and trace have miserably failed to contact people - a lot of the claimed contacts are in the same household, have had people sitting around with nothing to do, sent tests to America and had to retest people when that failed. I'd be a lot happier if the staff for that were given to local authorities.

If the employees or Nationwide share buses and perhaps buy food lunchtime in the same shops as Greencore employees then they should be encouraged to be tested. There may be asymptomatic cases there.

@sashagabadon

Belgium’s antibody levels are 5.5%

Sorry, posted too soon....

... so not nearly high enough for herd immunity, any more than the UK’s levels are (7-8% I believe).

www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/health/119517/only-5-5-of-belgians-have-coronavirus-antibodies-study-shows/

I'm a bit wary of placing too much reliance on various global antibody tests, it can be easy for contamination with very large studies. The lack of T-cell testing alongside feels like a big gap, because IgG surely degrades over time and then what's left is catching a much milder case due to having T-cells.

Thanks for the Swindon info @alreadytaken.

I agree Hounslow has done a good job of communicating about cases, same with Brent. It seems to help a lot when the word is out in the local community that everyone makes extra efforts with social distancing. Maybe also an impact from Brent being hit hard in March, en masse people seem to only learn caution after a spate of infections.