Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@MRex not that this is trusted source for me at all but I googled hospital death figures and while it's trying to sound positive it is reporting 5 hospital Deaths for today?

Oops forgot link

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-uk-coronavirus-hospital-death-22526385

MRex a lot of the tests in Greencore were private. So possibly they are not included?

I got it from here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Hmmm maybe N/A doesn't mean zero

Why aren't they updating this page?

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

Weirder and weirder, the time series only has 2: www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-data-series-on-deaths-in-people-with-covid-19-technical-summary

Oh wait, Wales had 1. So that's 3. Definitely easier if they put it in a table.

@MRex the main LAs with cases contributing to the big double day addition yesterday. 53% of cases in England added yesterday from 27 LAs, - so less than 10% of total English LAs

for the additional cases added today, these 41 LAs account for almost 60% of the English cases added

and over 100 LAs in England had no cases to add to today's figure

Looking at that map (from the coronavirus.data.gov.uk link) I can see that in one week, my closest city has gone up from 3 to 16 cases, and the town just up the road from me has gone from 0 (or under 3 anyway!) to 3.

I’m in the east of England and we’ve been really lucky to have relatively low case numbers throughout, so that feels like unwanted jump.

I had been feeling a bit complacent (not physically as I’ve barely left the house and wore a mask when I did, but kind of emotionally complacent if that’s a thing?) as there weren’t huge numbers of cases here, but going to from 3 to 16 in a week is a good reminder to still be careful.

Thanks for all the links and info.

@Timeforanotherusername - it's a notifiable disease, so there is no "private" when it comes to results. Tests might have to be rerun if it isn't an authorised facility, but you'd think some of those repeats would be coming through today.

Worth remembering again that the "daily" cases figure is the cumulative addition made today to the overall total. For England none of that number relates to cases actually confirmed today, of the 934 added for England:

6 related to yesterday; we'll see the vast majority of Friday's confirmed cases appearing in Sunday's and Monday's update

556 related to Thursday, so likely tomorrow will see more added again to the Thursday total

197 related to Wednesday

150 related to Tuesday, and

21 were from confirmed cases on Monday

Of the remaining few 3 has dates earlier in August, 3 added in July; reduction of 2 in June; reduction of 6 in both May and April, and finally 12 cases added with March dates (although yesterday cases in March had a reduction of 8)

boys3

Can I ask a technical q?

If the map on the gov.uk link is showing Cambridge has 16 cases, but your grid above is showing that Cambridge reported no new cases today, does it just mean those 16 are from before today?

And likewise if an East Cambridgeshire town was reporting zero new cases earlier this week, but now has 3 cases on the gov.uk map AND East Cambridgeshire has fallen off your zero cases list, does that mean those cases are very recent?

(Asking as I stopped for petrol in said East Cambs town after having gone to one of the affected areas in Cambridge and I’m now feeling like Typhoid Mary )

So these new daily updated tables of cases are really useful but does anyone know where we can find backdated data. I live in Tameside, Greater Manchester and our cases are on the increase as are the majority of areas around me and we are still in restricted measures mode. I'm really interested to see what our cases were at the peak and I can't find a way to look back, does anyone how you can look back week by week too? Thanks

@mammon

So these new daily updated tables of cases are really useful but does anyone know where we can find backdated data. I live in Tameside, Greater Manchester and our cases are on the increase as are the majority of areas around me and we are still in restricted measures mode. I'm really interested to see what our cases were at the peak and I can't find a way to look back, does anyone how you can look back week by week too? Thanks

@mammon graph by week since w/e 29th March. shows cases per 100,000 rate; Tameside pop around 226,000.

daily graph at the main gob website coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Tameside plus you can download the daily case numbers if you click on card data (the top right arrow)

@TaxTheRatFarms

boys3

Can I ask a technical q?

If the map on the gov.uk link is showing Cambridge has 16 cases, but your grid above is showing that Cambridge reported no new cases today, does it just mean those 16 are from before today?

And likewise if an East Cambridgeshire town was reporting zero new cases earlier this week, but now has 3 cases on the gov.uk map AND East Cambridgeshire has fallen off your zero cases list, does that mean those cases are very recent?

(Asking as I stopped for petrol in said East Cambs town after having gone to one of the affected areas in Cambridge and I’m now feeling like Typhoid Mary )

yes - no cases added to Cambridge in today's published figs

Since 1st Aug Cambridge confirmed cases each day 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 4, 0, 5, 4, 3, 2, 0, 0

Yes, East Cambs added 2 cases to 11 August in the figures published today.

The MSOA map link from the dashboard suppresses case numbers less than 3, so can be somewhat misleading. I know my district has 13 MSOAs even if each one had 2 cases, so 26 in total, for about 120,000 people, they would all show as none.

@boys3 thank you! I had no idea you could interact with the graphs on the Gov website and go backwards. Many thanks.

I’m sure you’ve all seen this but it’s a great resource for local numbers. In cambridge you can see it was only 3 cases last week for whole of Cambridgeshire. Now 16 in city. Still low but worth keeping an eye on.

www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

Yes it has the time period on the top left, as @boys3 said it’s from 1st August but this will change so keep an eye on it.

It’s a 7 day rolling total.

[quote IceCreamSummer20]I’m sure you’ve all seen this but it’s a great resource for local numbers. In cambridge you can see it was only 3 cases last week for whole of Cambridgeshire. Now 16 in city. Still low but worth keeping an eye on.

www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076[/quote]
@IceCreamSummer20 I think this is where the map and its less than 3 case numbers constraint gives a misleading picture.

in the 7 days to 9th August, so effectively the last full Monday-Sunday week Cambridgeshire had 33 cases:

• Cambridge 11
• East Cambs 1
• Fenland 5
• Huntingdonshire 13
• South Cambs 3

Taking the most recent seven days for which actual specimen dates have been published so 7th to 13th August inclusive (and therefore some overlap with above)

• Cambridge 18
• East Cambs 5
• Fenland 7
• Huntingdonshire 10
• South Cambs 3

Thanks @boys3

It is a bit misleading about not publishing under three cases (although it does make sense if picking up the start of a chain of cases.)

On a psychological level it just looks worse to go from, say, 0 to 5, not knowing if that 0 was really zero and you’ve gained 5 cases, or if that 0 means 2 and you’ve only gained 3.

Congratulations if any of that makes sense. I know what I mean but I’ve lost the power to put it in sentences

Thanks @boys3 that is really well explained.

@TaxTheRatFarms, I do like the use of maps for that visual perspective, but I personally think the one on the dashboard would be better using cases per 100,000 colour coding, so zero would be one category, then perhaps less than 2, between 2 and 5 etc. Which is the approach used by PHE for the maps in their weekly surveillance report, and in the very detailed maps for the "watched" areas which they have started publishing as an appendix each week.