Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Still looking for it but meanwhile -

www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-plasma-donation-blood-antibodies-virus-covid19-a9534066.html

@gingerbiscuitandacuppatea

Of course I'll stop!!

There will be plenty of people in my position (who have had cfs a long time, longer than this ban came in around 2010 from that article) that are giving blood though and don't know. I read the forms v carefully when I go in and nowhere on them when I last went around 2/3 years ago (had fertility treatment and pregnancy since so couldn't donate) does it say you can't with cfs. They absolutely should be making it clearer. If there ever is a "what other medical conditions do u have" box I always write it in there, so either they don't have that either (I can't remember) or they don't pick up on it when I write it in!

@gingerbiscuitandacuppatea and of course I wouldn't want to pass it on. As I said, I am always open about my condition and declare it everywhere. I don't read the websites, I read the info they give u on the day and fill out the forms v carefully.

I am not reckless at all.

Hello from NZ

The conversation has moved on now, but I thought I'd just update you on a few things that were raised on this thread last Tuesday. The level 3 'semi-lockdown' is continuing in Auckland for 12 more days, and the rest of the country remains on level 2. The cluster has grown to over 30 people, but the source of the original outbreak has not been traced. In fact it's a complete mystery as the genome sequence doesn't match the original outbreaks in NZ, or any of the people in quarantine: www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356833

People here are generally very accepting of the the restrictions. There is no sense that people have had enough. Our last lockdown was very strict, but also much shorter than most countries and we have been living a normal life since the start of June. Hardly anyone here wants to let the virus exist, even at low levels. The economy has taken a hit, but was actually recovering well over the past 2 months. 3 new cafes opened in my town last month! Tourism is the worst hit obviously, but there is good government support for businesses.

There has been extensive community testing over the past 4 days, more than ever before, and it has not uncovered any cases that are not linked to this new community cluster as yet, so it looks like it may be contained quickly. The contact tracing seems to be working well. In short, most people seem very happy with the government's handling of the pandemic and are happy to hunker down without tourists and wait for a vaccine.

Re. How long lasting immunity is.

Last week’s BBC Inquiry podcast was interesting. It discussed that it should be seen as a big positive that there are no confirmed cases where anyone in the world in the last 8 months across the world has got coronavirus twice (I think there were a couple of cases March/April but widely proposed that the first virus hadn’t already gone away but was just dormant for a couple of weeks before symptoms reappeared). It did say this doesn’t mean that immunity is likely to be years/life lasting but we should take the positive so far.

I wasn’t suggesting that it is impossible for a person with antibodies to get Covid again, or that any particular inferences should be drawn from the lack of data on this to date, just that so far as I know it hasn’t happened anywhere in the world (in a documented case) yet. No doubt it will be interesting if and when such cases do occur, at least in significant numbers.

I declare an interest as a person-with-antibodies myself. At 4 months post-Covid I had a sufficiently high antibody level to be accepted as a convalescent plasma donor, though as it turns out I have not been able to donate any blood or blood products due to having unresolved Covid-related pulmonary emboli. I’ve given consent for my antibody levels to be tested again periodically as part of my hospital’s ongoing research.

Inquiry link ‘will the pandemic get worse in winter’

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-inquiry/id932499233?i=1000487277573

Well, winter might well be worse if tens of thousands of students don't get the Uni, apprenticeship or job they wanted

So many lived ruined because of injustice could mean the end of SD in practice, which relies on the consent of the great majority of the public

If I were a parent, or a student who had my future ruined, I would aggressively refuse to curtail my life in any way, or wear a mask
It would be the end of my aquiescence

Political decisions can matter as much as public health ones

@BigChocFrenzy it is heartbreaking to hear some of them talk about the results and how their chances are ruined. Of course the reality is they will hopefully have many years in front of them and as someone who left school with no qualifications and graduated from uni at 33 I know there will be other chances but that doesn't in anyway make up for what has happened to them. I am so thankful that mine are all past that stage and the GC haven't got their yet. I have a couple of friends waiting in trepidation for their kids GCSE results next week. I expect more chaos.

My sympathies to anyone going through this chaos.

Didnt find the report I remember of a donor who was giving regularly but found his antibody levels declining. However I did find a preprint saying the same.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1.full.pdf

Two wrongs dont make a right. Deliberately setting out to ruin the future of other people because of a temporary setback would be disgusting. Even suggesting that is shameful. Young people do not have their future ruined by exam results poorer than expected if they have any resilience. Today, when we remember VJ day, veterans talk about how it was hell but they "just got on with it". While I'm glad people are less accepting of poor treatment now young people could do with a bit more of that resilience.

Fortunately I dont have a child of an age to be affected by exam stupidity. I've known several students given stupid predictions by teachers and being disappointed when they sat their exams. Their futures were only ruined if they let them be.

I would have let A level students sit exams, although there would have been just as much complaint then. Once a decision is taken to cancel there had to be some sort of moderation, it should have been based on how wildly optimistic teachers and schools had been in the past.

With all infections antibodies will reduce in blood, otherwise after a lifetime of exposure to infections our blood would be thick as custard.

Study here demonstrating T cell immunity in asymptomatic and sero negative exposed individuals.

www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4

Paper concludes that exposure may prevent recurrent or severe C19

1012 cases today. Not as bad as yesterday. Doesn't look as if they're finding many more on Northampton as yet

1012 cases added today; 934 in England, very few of those added today look at first skim through to be in Northampton.

at least two of us with the same initial view; x-post with @Firefliess

@boys3 - yes looks like we were both asking the same question of the data.

Sorry, badly worded question earlier.

It sound like it's harder to test for T cells, but T cell test showing prior exposure to other coronaviruses could potentially indicate if someone was at lower or higher risk if they caught Covid 19?

I used antibodies when I meant Tcells

Are they not updating the deaths page anymore?

It's rather surprising, looking on the map plus spreadsheet there's Moulton with 192 cases, then surrounding areas have dribs and drabs 3-6 cases. So it doesn't match the 300+++ from the news reporting.
Did they double-count some swabs?
Where did all the other big numbers come from yesterday? I see Oldham wants to keep its place on the danger list, Werneth on the outskirts of Manchester wants attention, a little place called Nelson also (near Burnley).
Swindon - what's the deal there?
Leicester would be looking much better if it weren't for one local area.

Noticeable tiny spotty patches all over the map, is this returning holidaymakers? Is there any chart showing best guess at where people got infected (if known)?

@PrayingandHoping - looks like no hospital deaths today, only 3 attributed from non-hospital 28-days count. Nothing to map, though there should still be cumulative data.

@MRex where do u see those figures?

That's a real positive. Let's hope the negative media bother to report it.... the first day with no hospital deaths is a ray of good news

@Firefliess

I have given blood regularly (except for the last 6 months as I have a 12m ban for failing an iron test). It always seems to be full of young and middle aged people when I'm there - very few over 70s so I doubt they make that much difference.

I got a 12 month ban for failing iron test in 2018. Again in 2019.

Booked in for 2 weeks time.

Let's hope it's 3rd time lucky!

Do they tell donors the results of their tests if they test them for antibodies?

[quote PrayingandHoping]@MRex where do u see those figures?

That's a real positive. Let's hope the negative media bother to report it.... the first day with no hospital deaths is a ray of good news [/quote]
Agree on both counts

Sorry but it probably isn't a real zero @PrayingandHoping, because some hospitals don't report on weekends. Also the 3 will still count to make us non-zero.

The areas I mentioned don't need to hear about it either, they need to be cautious.