Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

[quote Firefliess]@bigchoc - I think your analysis of the enormous underreporting early on is sound. But the graph you posted shows relatively little change in the age groups testing positive in the last 8 weeks or so. And it's this recent period when we've seen cases rising (only a little in the UK, but lots in Spain/France)

Looking at the absolute numbers of cases in the over 70s would be useful - if that has to risen then something else is causing the fall in death rates (either the virus becoming less deadly, or better rates of case detection now compared with 6-8 weeks ago. I don't know much about how easy it is to get a test in Spain or France and whether testing has improved in recent weeks - would be interesting to know that. [/quote]
...
The first chart in my post above yours has a table below the graph of absolute case numbers by age
The 70+ age group has comparatively few confirmed cases and the 80+, 90+ far fewer still

Here is a closeup I've marked just showing the table, with the 70+ highlighted
(remembering the numbers in earlier weeks need to be mutliplied by about 30 for comparison)

e.g. of the 9,209 confirmed cases for week 34:

Age Cases
70-79 157
80-89 88
90-99 17
100+ 2

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy and @IceCreamSummer20 for the German and Irish overseas infection charts. It's one of those things that would really be useful. imagines a world with regional charts like Ireland's and a national table like Germany's

The figures are astonishing, sInce the age 70+ are far more likely to have symptoms and hence be tested

It shows they are taking much greater precautions and the young are being very careful of them,
also that those in care homes are protecting them very carefully

There is a current thread about the sadness of the OP not being able to hug her elderly mum in a (UK) care home, with much criticism of the precautions,
but it shows that UK care homes are also very protective of their residents, to avoid a repeat of the carnage earlier this year

@MRex

Thanks *@BigChocFrenzy and @IceCreamSummer20* for the German and Irish overseas infection charts. It's one of those things that would really be useful. imagines a world with regional charts like Ireland's and a national table like Germany's

.... RKI has detailled regional charts with age etc for the 16 states and then down to the 401 administrative districts, which average about 200,000 population each For reasons of privacy, drilling down further is in much less detail, but that suffices.

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]Graph showing the areas in Europe with the highest rise in cases per 100,000 in the 7 days from 14 to 21 August.

mobile.twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1297869072483389441

The 25 highest and lowest increases are shown here (the UK is on both lists, West Midlands on the top 25 highest and Cornwall & Isles of Scilly plus Dorset & Somerset on the lowest).
innovationorigins.com/nl/corona-in-europa-zorgeloze-zomervakantie-wordt-opgelaaide-pandemie/[/quote]
@CoffeeandCroissant I'd question quite where the second link has got its numbers from, or quite how it has defined its administrative geographies.

The West Midlands for the those 7 days had 761 cases rather than 1458, and an actual cases per 100,000 rate of 12.8 rather than 49.8.

The numbers in that link suggest whatever area they believe the West Midlands to be it has a population of 2.92 million. Which does fit with the West Mids Combined Authority area; however that sub-group of West Mids LAs had 487 cases between them in those 7 days, and a rate of around 16.7. So again very different from that published in your link. Although it does make me wonder whether someone on the website in your link perhaps miskeyed an extra "1" and hugely inflated the case number by mistake.

We can probably safely conclude that neither the West Midlands overall nor the West Mids Combined Authority subset would actually be in the top 25.

The case numbers for Cornwall and the intriguing combo of Dorset and Somerset are only couple out.

Crikey, I've just seen pictures of schools in Bangkok, Thailand with a box around each student, plus masks
No new infections in that school since they instituted those precautions in July - they were really determined to stay open

down to the 401 administrative districts, which average about 200,000 population each

sorry @BigChocFrenzy slightly off topic but is there a fairly tight distribution around that mean, or is it more akin to England where the average UTLA population is around 378,000 but has a range from 40,000 to almost 1.6 million? Asked more out of interest in the structures within a nation where much more power and decision making is devolved to a more local level as compared with the UK.

@BigChocFrenzy

Crikey, I've just seen pictures of schools in Bangkok, Thailand with a box around each student, plus masks No new infections in that school since they instituted those precautions in July - they were really determined to stay open

don't put that pic on any of the numerous school threads - it will drive the ultra hysterical end to new levels!

But, and I'm almost being serious, it could be interesting to put it on for the webinair tomorrow to get the government minister's thoughts on it.

@boys3

down to the 401 administrative districts, which average about 200,000 population each

sorry @BigChocFrenzy slightly off topic but is there a fairly tight distribution around that mean, or is it more akin to England where the average UTLA population is around 378,000 but has a range from 40,000 to almost 1.6 million? Asked more out of interest in the structures within a nation where much more power and decision making is devolved to a more local level as compared with the UK.

... I've been checking this a lot in the RKI dashboard The range I've seen is 55k - 420k, with most just a bit over 200k

Local responsibility and control by elected officials of hospitals, schools, public health - including track & trace - etc is an important principal here, with quite a bit of autonomy,
especially going up the scale to the 16 states, each of which have their own Parliament and state leader, with far more autonomy than the 3 smaller UK nations

Merkel has to bring those 16 leaders with her and find consensus for all decisions about the COVID crisis

However, the UK's centralised authority is unusual in Europe.
BJ has more executive power than even Macron

"don't put that pic on any of the numerous school threads - it will drive the ultra hysterical end to new levels!"

Not unless I'm feeling very evil

I suspect only these threads or Westministenders could discuss them calmly,
but feel free if you want to post it on the Webchat - I've already posted my 2 questions

Thanks for the breakdown by age @bigchoc - did you get that from the government website?

But what it shows if you look just at the last 8 weeks is that rates are (slightly) increasing across all age groups including the oldest. So why then are deaths not increasing? Were we sell seeing some people who'd been ill for months dying during June maybe, making it hard to see the impact of recent changes to infection rates? I don't think that's the case though because we can't see an upturn in hospital admissions either. And this is all despite an increasing proportion of the cases being among Asian people who there seems to be some evidence suggests are more susceptible to getting very ill/dying.

All suggests to me that we have continued to get better at testing over the last two months and that the actual rate of infections is flat or falling slightly (or the virus is becoming less deadly - I don't know enough about virus mutations to know how likely this is)

The graph at the bottom on the page you linked to @boys3 is really good innovationorigins.com/nl/corona-in-europa-zorgeloze-zomervakantie-wordt-opgelaaide-pandemie/

You can see how the positivity rate has varied in counties since February. I think the ones where it's low are then they're on top of things. UK wasn't but has got consistently better and is not good. Some other countries have fluctuated more.

@Firefliess - there's been an increase in testing, also improvements in treatment.

I don't understand those charts; why are they adding together counties like Dorset and Somerset and "West Midlands" (which is a huge region; presumably Birmingham plus Worcestershire? Shropshire? Herefordshire? Stafford? Warwickshire?)?

Bearing in mind it's compared to single cities like Dresden.

Obviously any improvement in treatment is great but if that was a key reason for a reduction in deaths wouldn't we see increasing hospitalisations but stable death rates?

It does seem odd that in areas where rates are rising or higher there is no corresponding increase in other metrics.

@Sunshinegirl82

Obviously any improvement in treatment is great but if that was a key reason for a reduction in deaths wouldn't we see increasing hospitalisations but stable death rates?

It does seem odd that in areas where rates are rising or higher there is no corresponding increase in other metrics.

Yes I wonder about this too.

May be all testing increase?

I’d not be against Perspex shields in school. Might be the only one though ;

Do you mean around desks marsha? Times reported yesterday that these create trapped air in unventilated environments and could make things worse.

Meanwhile The Times today just printed actual made up unicorn stuff about school return so I begin to doubt whether anything they print is true! At least when it comes to schools.

@Firefliess

Thanks for the breakdown by age *@bigchoc* - did you get that from the government website?

But what it shows if you look just at the last 8 weeks is that rates are (slightly) increasing across all age groups including the oldest. So why then are deaths not increasing? Were we sell seeing some people who'd been ill for months dying during June maybe, making it hard to see the impact of recent changes to infection rates? I don't think that's the case though because we can't see an upturn in hospital admissions either. And this is all despite an increasing proportion of the cases being among Asian people who there seems to be some evidence suggests are more susceptible to getting very ill/dying.

All suggests to me that we have continued to get better at testing over the last two months and that the actual rate of infections is flat or falling slightly (or the virus is becoming less deadly - I don't know enough about virus mutations to know how likely this is)

.... Those were German figures, used for calculation as we don't have that detail for the UK

Deaths (Germany) are not going up because cases among the elderly are not significantly increasing
and confirmed cases are up to 20 x lower than peak for some age groups, which with the vastly increased testing, means in reality far lower still

"It does seem odd that in areas where rates are rising or higher there is no corresponding increase in other metrics"

Maybe cases have not yet risen significantly among the elderly (as seems the case in Germany)
have not yet reached the threshold at which we would see changes

Plus all the other reasons in that FT overview posted upthread

The Uk too likely has a real number of cases that is say 3% (or similar tiny %) of the real number in March-April

I'm retired and childfree, so no skin in schools
However, I'd have thought whatever measures would keep them open almost all the time would be worth it
Closing and reopening cycles could be very disruptive

Kids have adapted to mask-wearing in some other European countries, with no behavioural problems reported in the first week or two
Transparent masks are available, not just visors, if some teachers need them

In Germany, mask-wearing is likely to be extended where needed, after a significant number of school closures in some high population areas
I expect the UK would also tighten up if this happened, probably also on a regional basis, but keep to the optional route until then

Mask wearing in schools even in classrooms is a good idea, along with good ventilation and social distancing. Even if that means a week on week off to keep numbers down. I even think primary schools and mask wearing is fine. My DS is SN is primary but I’ve got him to wear a mask, it’s not such a big deal really when we get used to it.

Reminder:
11 am Today - MN Webchat Vicky Ford, Minister for Children

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnetlivee_events/4001863-Webchat-with-Vicky-Ford-Minister-for-Children-Wednesday-26-August-at-11am

WHO quote
WHO and UNICEF advise that children aged 12 and over should wear a mask under the same conditions as adults, in particular when they cannot guarantee at least a 1-metre distance from others and there is widespread transmission in the area.
Also for 6-11 year olds as long as it doesn’t impact on learning and can be managed.