Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 21:37

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
104
MarshaBradyo · 26/08/2020 10:21

Piggy yep I was just looking at that Thailand school pic below.

I think the retail sector has done a good job using dividers rather than just masks. And whilst some on here think it’s dystopian (allowing for usual posting drama so downplay in reality) and that Thailand school pic has been posted before and many were aghast, I still think dividers are a good way to go.

Obviously schools have no money for it unlike retail so it’s not an option.

I’m on the fence for masks as not sure on effectiveness of long term mask use or taking on and off. But I welcome it over rotas and closures. If it keeps the schools open in a lockdown then I’m fine with it (fine with anything that doesn’t make it worse and keeps them in ft).

But if those plastic things make it worse then no not great.

boys3 · 26/08/2020 10:34

@MRex

I don't understand those charts; why are they adding together counties like Dorset and Somerset and "West Midlands" (which is a huge region; presumably Birmingham plus Worcestershire? Shropshire? Herefordshire? Stafford? Warwickshire?)?
@MRex working the, admittedly incorrect, numbers back the "West Midlands" would look to be just the authorities covered by the Mayoral Combined Authority. That website's case number and cases per 100,000 figure for the "west midlands" is however spectacularly wrong.

They have used 1458 cases. Based on the most recent dashboard data the west mids combined mayoral group had 487 cases. Assuming that website took the data a day or so earlier then 458 cases for those 7 days is not implausible. but 1458 is, which as I suggested upthread may come down to a simple data error alongside a lack of any understanding of the most rudimentary basics of data quaility

The bigger risk though is publishing abject nonsense and passing it off as reality could have more far reaching consequences. Hopefully an unlikely scenario:

That west mids area has a higher degree of skilled and relatively well paid manufacturing jobs than many areas
Many of the businesses will be linked into european / global supply chains in terms of component supply
The pan european ones will be constantly making investment decisions / decisions to delay investment, and balancing the trade offs between investing in their West Mids plant as opposed to Western somewhere else in Europe. Someone sees the case rate in West Mids on that site.......
Likewise for SME who are competing with European and wider suppliers a sourcing decision could be influenced by those numbers.

I would add that these are less than likely single scenarios, but in terms of sowing a seed of doubt to business confidence in investment and sourcing decisions then that headline case rate of almost 50 will not go into the positive reasons to invest column

EducatingArti · 26/08/2020 10:36

Thanks boys, I really appreciate all your tables. I am in Greater Manchester and am really interested that cases have now started to increase a bit in Wigan. They got excused from the extra regional restrictions last week as they hadn't really been badly affected.
My feeling is that a lot of people are really not taking social distancing measures that seriously any more until they get flagged as increasing and extra measures introduced. Oldham seem to be finally getting a grip on things now they have been told not to meet at all socially with any other household!

Piggywaspushed · 26/08/2020 11:00

The dividers would also be very cheaply made, unlike in the retail sector!

Firefliess · 26/08/2020 11:30

@bigchoc - AHH, German figures! Serves me right for trying to view graphs on my phone when I should be working!

Would really like to see cases by age group for Spain, where the divergence between cases and deaths is all the more striking.

littleowl1 · 26/08/2020 12:13

Compiling our morning Covid Messenger emails this morning, I couldn't help but notice the worsening situation in a number of London boroughs.

Cases have almost doubled week-over-week in numerous boroughs. Hopefully track-and-trace and local health teams can get these cases isolated quickly.

To all those in the boroughs effected - I hope you are ok?

__

We offer free daily email alerts about coronavirus case numbers in your local council. Sign up at www.covidmessenger.com.

Why is the data below as of Aug 20th and not more recent?
We monitor the data published by the UK government carefully - it takes 5-6 days for the bulk of test results to be reported on at local council level. The table below details the results of tests/samples taken on Aug 20th. This is the most recent date with reliable data. Articles detailing more recent localised results should be approached with caution - the authors seem unaware that the data is regularly revised upwards until 5 days after the test sample date, as further test results are processed and reported.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15
MarshaBradyo · 26/08/2020 12:32

Littleowl thanks for info, do you know what the number is for lockdown type situations to occur?

whatsnext2 · 26/08/2020 13:32

@littleowl1

Compiling our morning Covid Messenger emails this morning, I couldn't help but notice the worsening situation in a number of London boroughs.

Cases have almost doubled week-over-week in numerous boroughs. Hopefully track-and-trace and local health teams can get these cases isolated quickly.

To all those in the boroughs effected - I hope you are ok?

__

We offer free daily email alerts about coronavirus case numbers in your local council. Sign up at www.covidmessenger.com.

Why is the data below as of Aug 20th and not more recent?
We monitor the data published by the UK government carefully - it takes 5-6 days for the bulk of test results to be reported on at local council level. The table below details the results of tests/samples taken on Aug 20th. This is the most recent date with reliable data. Articles detailing more recent localised results should be approached with caution - the authors seem unaware that the data is regularly revised upwards until 5 days after the test sample date, as further test results are processed and reported.

Still no South Gloucestershire county
MRex · 26/08/2020 13:45

@littleowl1 - I don't monitor most of the boroughs you highlighted closely, but I think there are some variations across London. In the West and South London boroughs that I look at the cases have been dotted in all different postcode areas of 2-5 cases; one pops up then a different postcode area the next day and so on. To me those look like holiday returnees. Central London looks similar. The North/West boroughs had known transmission in the Indian community a few weeks back, but with some really good communication seem to be successfully slamming the lid on that. Some of the East London areas like Tottenham have had low level ongoing spread, so there is likely to still be some low level community transmission. I know nothing about SE London. But altogether I think it's a mixed picture rather than city pattern.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/08/2020 14:09

Over 1,000 US health workers died of Covid-19

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/26/us-health-workers-covid-19-deaths-lost-on-the-frontline

OP posts:
littleowl1 · 26/08/2020 14:13

@whatsnext2 what councils are you looking for?

whatsnext2 · 26/08/2020 14:17

[quote littleowl1]@whatsnext2 what councils are you looking for?[/quote]
South Gloucestershire

www.southglos.gov.uk/

littleowl1 · 26/08/2020 14:20

@whatsnext2

It’s under Gloucestershire! Glad we found it for you!

www.covidmessenger.com/signup/choose_county/coronavirus-gloucestershire/

whatsnext2 · 26/08/2020 14:26

[quote littleowl1]@whatsnext2

It’s under Gloucestershire! Glad we found it for you!

www.covidmessenger.com/signup/choose_county/coronavirus-gloucestershire/[/quote]
Thank you, might be worth tweaking that as most people won't look at Gloucester for Bristol and South Glos, but appreciate all the work you've put in

littleowl1 · 26/08/2020 14:33

@whatsnext2 I will do that. What county would you recommend I list Bristol under? Somerset?

whatsnext2 · 26/08/2020 14:37

[quote littleowl1]@whatsnext2 I will do that. What county would you recommend I list Bristol under? Somerset?[/quote]
NOT Somerset. I assume the data you have refers to City of Bristol which is a County in it own right.

Reastie · 26/08/2020 14:53

@littleowl1 just wanted to say thank you for the email updates, they are so useful and helpful.

boys3 · 26/08/2020 14:58

@littleowl1

Compiling our morning Covid Messenger emails this morning, I couldn't help but notice the worsening situation in a number of London boroughs.

Cases have almost doubled week-over-week in numerous boroughs. Hopefully track-and-trace and local health teams can get these cases isolated quickly.

To all those in the boroughs effected - I hope you are ok?

__

We offer free daily email alerts about coronavirus case numbers in your local council. Sign up at www.covidmessenger.com.

Why is the data below as of Aug 20th and not more recent?
We monitor the data published by the UK government carefully - it takes 5-6 days for the bulk of test results to be reported on at local council level. The table below details the results of tests/samples taken on Aug 20th. This is the most recent date with reliable data. Articles detailing more recent localised results should be approached with caution - the authors seem unaware that the data is regularly revised upwards until 5 days after the test sample date, as further test results are processed and reported.

@littleowl1 This is a quite reasonable observation to raise. London overall got down to really quite low levels, and some way below the all England level through end May, June and into early July, but has shown an more upward trajectory since then.

As you correctly point out it takes some days for all cases for a particular specimen date to feed through into the reporting. W/E 23rd Aug is therefore still waiting a fair few cases to filter through; yet even with it being not yet fully complete London overall is still higher than w/e 16th Aug and also at its highest point since mid May.

I think the perspective of London's sheer population size needs to be borne in mind - so only Hackney so far is over the 20 cases per 100,000 in a week, but several others are not far off that level.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15
itsgettingweird · 26/08/2020 15:16

Little just signed up! Great service.

tootyfruitypickle · 26/08/2020 15:22

My south east council has made into the top 50 councils this week. However the numbers are very low. I’ve also been reassured by @boys3 and @littleowl1 ‘s work because it’s shown me how quickly figures can go down as well as up. I was worried about a neighbouring borough but this week their figures have gone down quite dramatically. So it leads me to think that most outbreaks are linked to a particular setting and that the local intel measures are effective ?

MarshaBradyo · 26/08/2020 15:24

I’m in a SE London borough

At what point did the local lockdowns occur in Manchester area?

I assume there’s no common threshold just down to LA?

MRex · 26/08/2020 15:50

@MarshaBradyo - Local authorities join the surveillance watchlist at 15 cases per 100,000 weekly (translates to 30 if you look at the fortnightly figures from EU for other country comparisons). I guess that number might reduce if all boroughs were below 15. Enhanced support and intervention (special measures) are then roughly at higher levels, but it varies when those kick in - largely it seems to be based on how much was community transmission rather than single outbreaks, but proximity to other local authorities on the watch list makes a difference too.

MRex · 26/08/2020 15:51

You can see the surveillance report here for comparison: www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

MarshaBradyo · 26/08/2020 16:00

Oh really useful, thanks MRex

tootyfruitypickle · 26/08/2020 16:13

I heard our county council leader on the radio saying exactly what @MRex has explained so coherently. They’re looking for general community transmission. I guess if it’s clearly confined to one household or workplace, that’s a different kettle of fish, even if it means a rise in numbers above 20 p 100,000