Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@MRex

As we're doing facts, how did you do the strikeout /bold? I never know how many * or _ to put where...

before and after, so if + was used to embolden text (which it isn't but used for illustrative purposes) +bold+ would give bold So replace + with an * at either end.

[quote MRex]Redditch was an inappropriate party it seems: www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus[/quote]
Good that the Council there are being open about things, and as they say few further cases from it should hopefully arise.

Not quite so convinced about their car sharing advice - it might be simpler for them to simply say that they don't recommend car sharing, rather than a list of worthy bullets that most won't follow; can't see people driving with windows down in weather like my part of the world has had today.

@boys3 - Yeah, I hadn’t considered a workplace outbreak in Redditch, just assumed it was another example of small clusters popping up like Birmingham. I seem to think Bromsgrove was trending upwards previously too.

I’m in Brum (although in an area that has had very few cases throughout) and we are getting lots of messaging from the council which is largely rule reiteration. I think that will influence some behaviour (for example they’ve made it possible for the council to close down pubs/restaurants who accept bookings for more than two households). I did also hear about lots of “raves” getting shut down over the weekend via the Police Twitter.

Oh cross post. Hope it was a good party! Bloody eejits.

Whilst Redditch was a party, I do expect Worcestershire to creep upwards if numbers in Birmingham are high.

Although Sandwell was high recently and numbers in Worcestershire was still very low.

And the farm just over the border in Herefordshire had little impact locally.

@itsgettingweird yes what is happening in Spain? The ECDC graphs show Spain having a big uptick in cases in the last 14 days compared to most countries, including the UK.

Arghh and Spain graph!

Date Hospitalizations Patients On Ventilators
19 June 2020 184 3248 283
26 June 2020 209 2613 226
03 July 2020 120 2086 202
10 July 2020 97 1608 162
17 July 2020 48 1233 122
24 July 2020 40 928 92
31 July 2020 25 769 68
07 August 2020 21 638 57
14 August 2020 31 588 63
21 August 2020 58 480 64

That is a marked rise. Wonder what hospitalisation rate is doing.

@AlecTrevelyan006 any chance you could post again?

It looks like this to me!

Date - Hospitalizations - Patients - On Ventilators

19 June - 184 - 3248 - 283
26 June - 209 - 2613 - 226
03 July - 120 - 2086 - 202
10 July - 97 - 1608 - 162
17 July - 48 - 1233 - 122
24 July - 40 - 928 - 92
31 July - 25 - 769 - 68
07 August - 21 - 638 - 57
14 August - 31 - 588 - 63
21 August- 58 - 480 - 64

Spain and the UK are about the only countries in Europe who don't state the number of recovered & active cases
I don't know why, when all the rest do so

So good to see less on ventilators.

@icecream That's quite a rise in cases they've had in Spain, but still no real increase in deaths. It's quite striking, and I'm finding it hard to believe a virus can really go on and on spreading among the young while older people somehow manage to keep themselves completed isolated. It just seems to unlikely.

Some recent figures and graphs for Spain in this article (in Spanish).
elpais.com/sociedad/2020-08-22/que-dicen-los-datos-de-agosto-sobre-la-nueva-expansion-del-coronavirus-en-espana.html?outputType=amp

@MRex

We really need a table like Germany to say how many infections are thought to have come from overseas, versus home-spread, is this tracked anywhere? I'm still very suspicious that the little blobs of pale blue popping up in random locations that had no infections for months are linked to holidays.

.... This is Germany's latest data on which countries infections probably came from However, it represents German holiday patterns

Also remember upthread I calculated that with the lower testing at peak, real cases then were probably 30x higher than now

I don’t know, I hope that there is not a creeping into older people and then deaths rise. Most of the increase is from the young apparently, and politically not strong and coherent.

It is in Ireland but I’ve not seen in UK.

Sorry above is source of transmission from Ireland, but not up to the minute data, it’s all meshed into a small graph.

It would be very good to see UK 7 or 14 day figures from mode of transmission both nationally and in regional level - community, cluster or from abroad

Graph showing the areas in Europe with the highest rise in cases per 100,000 in the 7 days from 14 to 21 August.

mobile.twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1297869072483389441

The 25 highest and lowest increases are shown here (the UK is on both lists, West Midlands on the top 25 highest and Cornwall & Isles of Scilly plus Dorset & Somerset on the lowest).
innovationorigins.com/nl/corona-in-europa-zorgeloze-zomervakantie-wordt-opgelaaide-pandemie/

@BigChocFrenzy - Kosovo and Bosnia rank high on that list - migrant workers as opposed to holiday destinations?

Quite possibly, Boys

[quote Firefliess]@icecream That's quite a rise in cases they've had in Spain, but still no real increase in deaths. It's quite striking, and I'm finding it hard to believe a virus can really go on and on spreading among the young while older people somehow manage to keep themselves completed isolated. It just seems to unlikely.[/quote]
....
I've only detailled charts for Germany, see attached, but I expect very similar effects in the UK:

The RKI (German public health)says:

"With the decrease in the number of cases from reporting week 15 onwards, the proportion among persons aged 80 and over increased sharply,
but then decreased again continuously from reporting week 17 to reporting week 24, accompanied by a significant decrease in the number of cases
....
In comparison, the proportion of cases in the younger age groups between 0 and 29 years of age increased in the same period,
but with a concurrent decrease in the number of cases.
...
as of week 32 the proportion of cases among 10 to 30 year olds is increasing"

The hospitalisation and deaths reflect the significant drop in the % of elderly infections
and I have calculated upthread that the increased testing and much lower positivity now suggests confirmed cases are in reality 1/30 the number at peak

i.e. we should be comparing to a peak of likely 300,000 weekly cases, not the 35,000 confirmed then,
to understand the continuing v low hospitalisations and deaths atm

@bigchoc - I think your analysis of the enormous underreporting early on is sound. But the graph you posted shows relatively little change in the age groups testing positive in the last 8 weeks or so. And it's this recent period when we've seen cases rising (only a little in the UK, but lots in Spain/France)

Looking at the absolute numbers of cases in the over 70s would be useful - if that has to risen then something else is causing the fall in death rates (either the virus becoming less deadly, or better rates of case detection now compared with 6-8 weeks ago. I don't know much about how easy it is to get a test in Spain or France and whether testing has improved in recent weeks - would be interesting to know that.

Spain and the UK are about the only countries in Europe who don't state the number of recovered & active cases
I don't know why, when all the rest do so

Given all the other reporting variances, at least one of our dear 4 nations would state that anyone with a diagnosis must be confirmed fit enough to run a marathon before being declared recovered. Headlines would give a daily comparison with other countries, of course.