Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Does PHE exist any longer? The National Institute for Health Protection was supposed to start work "straight away".

Lots more reports of infection at American universities. More online teaching here and lower infection rates will help - but will we have the same level of testing available?

www.voanews.com/student-union/covid-19-infections-rising-among-young-people-us-university-campuses

A quick look at the latest percentile breakdown up to and including w/e 23rd August (noting there will probably be more cases to add to that week). Nevertheless quite a big shift downward in the upper deciles, but some creeping up across the lower deciles.

All based on the full data file that the dashboard updated this afternoon.

The overall England cases per 100,000 is based on the overall LA totals, so the typical 1-3% of cases where regional and LA geography is not known will not be included.

Last three weeks sorted by highest cases per 100,000 for the most recent seven day period used 16th to 22nd Aug specimen dates. A lot of those high cases per 100,000 areas continue to head in the right direction.

bit of an uptick in some of those previously very low case areas in the South West. Something of a jump in Bristol over the past couple of weeks; and some of the Devon LAs showing (for them given their consistent very low case numbers) slightly eye catching increases.

Cornwall though - despite big holiday destination - remains low in case terms.

Anyone seen Spain's number for past week

I read somewhere they now have over 400k active infections.

Do we have a similar record for uk to compare. Or even European counties?

similar picture in London with upticks in a number of Boroughs.

Offset by the likes of Hounslow showing a good downward trajectory.

No borough though higher than (just over) 13 cases per 100,000 for the most recent 7 day period used, and a significant majority are below the overall England rate.

Nevertheless London has moved to its highest weekly case number since the 2nd week of May.

@itsgettingweird

Anyone seen Spain's number for past week

I read somewhere they now have over 400k active infections.

Do we have a similar record for uk to compare. Or even European counties?

Just looked on Worldometer and they have put N/A next to the active cases section but in total they have had 423 224 cases if they have 400k active ones that means on 23 224 have been cured or sadly died.

Where are you finding your information abou the active infections please

Most of the South East remains below, and mostly a fair way below 10 cases per 100,000. But again a few areas that have been consistently low week on week showing a bit of an increase.

Lots of countries have very weird figures for active infections because they don’t count the recoveries, or they only count them when someone who has been positive takes a second test which is negative. Spain is most likely something like this. They won’t have 400k active infections.

Thanks for the percentile tables again @boys3 They're interesting this week as show quite a clear pattern of rates decreasing in the areas that are seeing local lockdowns or have had extra focus on testing over the last few weeks - suggesting these activities are working. But rising rates in the areas with lowest rates, which I fear may be the result of complacency by people in areas where rates are lowest. They need to put some real effort in to tracking and isolating the contacts of these isolated cases. It can't be that hard for local authorities to take this on, if they only have 5-10 cases a week to be dealing with.

East of England - outside of those within the highest 50 cases per 100,000 a significant majority of LAs in the region are still at quite low levels. Luton now below 15 cases per 100,000

Sorry Jen the + sign went missing. It was the figure you quoted I just couldn't remember the exact amount from what I read!

Thanks @boys3, appreciate your efforts, is useful to have the tables.

I read it on my iPad when reading news. Sorry for being crap but can't remember what paper.

It was generally just factual though rather than sensationalised.

East Mids - some growth in Nottingham; however majority of areas in Derbyshire and Lincolnshire look to have really low levels.

Bizarrely Rutland tops the (non highest 50) East Midlands list.

@MRex

Thanks *@boys3*, appreciate your efforts, is useful to have the tables.

@MRex; thanks but I fear my effort ( filtering and copying from a spreadsheet) may be over-stated

West Mids - Coventry showing a good downward trajectory this week

Yorks & Humber - Sheffield, Barnsley, Rotherham all positive

North West - again a lot of reducing levels.

Note where Eden - on the watched list very recently - now is

and Zoe had Halton a week or so ago on its the end is nigh list which should have told us that Halton really did not have a problem

and leaving the finest region until last the North East - showing some areas increasing. Newcastle and Middleborough both, again after being at low levels for some time - are in the lower reaches of the highest 50 list.

We really need a table like Germany to say how many infections are thought to have come from overseas, versus home-spread, is this tracked anywhere? I'm still very suspicious that the little blobs of pale blue popping up in random locations that had no infections for months are linked to holidays.

As we're doing facts, how did you do the strikeout /bold? I never know how many * or _ to put where...

Redditch seems to be shooting up - it’s basically suburban Birmingham so not at all surprising to see infections spreading there.

@SellFridges

Redditch seems to be shooting up - it’s basically suburban Birmingham so not at all surprising to see infections spreading there.

@SellFridges - 11 and 10 cases on 19th and 20th Aug respectively in Redditch, so the majority of that 25 in the last seven days. Redditch has been really low - 1 and 5 in the two prior 7 day periods shown and only 14 cases in total across the 7 weeks prior to that. I do wonder if some sort of workplace outbreak given high numbers (for Redditch) over two consecutive days, rather than a link to Brum?

Talking of Brum, case numbers appear to be falling back a bit but new restrictions being talked about? It did have a quite odd LSOA case map in so far as unlike most watched areas cases seemed city wide although no areas at really high levels (so few if any dark colours on that map). But it also has over 1 million people and covers a reasonable chunk of land. From media reports Police seemed to be really cracking down at the weekend.

Redditch was an inappropriate party it seems: www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus