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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 21:37

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
104
IceCreamSummer20 · 25/08/2020 15:31

@Jenasaurus yes I had been very hopeful about T cells. However both the reinfection and T cell research are not well corroborated yet so we have to wait and see what this really means.

Jrobhatch29 · 25/08/2020 15:34

@Jenasaurus

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-reinfected-hong-kong-covid-19-study-a9685571.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Just seen this on breaking news, I am suprised as I thought they had establised that antibodies and T Cells give long term immunity, or am I reading this incorrectly.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/some-people-can-get-pandemic-virus-twice-study-suggests-no-reason-panic#

The study found it was a different strain. He was asymptomatic the second time and is thought he had some cross immunity from first strain that protected him the second time

BigChocFrenzy · 25/08/2020 16:14

FT Overview: Why coronavirus deaths are falling even as cases are rising

  • Greatly increased testing catching a much higher proportion of infections with mild or no symptoms.

  • Significantly lower age profile of infections than a few months ago

  • Improved and more prompt treatment & meds for those with more severe symptoms

  • Lower doses of coronavirus in the community likely reduces the chance of serious illness

  • Seasonality: In summer, immunensystems are normally stronger, while at the same time coronavirus does not thrive as much in hotter & humid conditions

  • Virus mutation: Unproven and it would be unusually quick for this, but some speculation that genetic change is making the virus less virulent as it passes through human populations

www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7

OP posts:
Frazzled2207 · 25/08/2020 16:30

@whatsnext2
I have seen in the guardian today that there is a big IT problem at the moment which is meaning that not all locations are coming up for tests.
That said it is all a bit haphazard - there is a test site half a mile from me but it is only open some days and there seems to be no pattern!

Frazzled2207 · 25/08/2020 16:40

meanwhile no stats for today yet and with the IT problem it looks like the test (and possibly positive cases) stats will be way off. The number of tests conducted in England since the 20th August on the dashboard has literally fallen off a cliff (showing zero)

BigChocFrenzy · 25/08/2020 16:45

Two European patients confirmed to have been re-infected:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/aug/25/coronavirus-live-news-gaza-in-lockdown-following-first-local-cases-hong-kong-man-re-infected?page=with:block-5f44e7c38f08767dd7f0e657#block-5f44e7c38f08767dd7f0e657

a patient in the Netherlands and another in Belgium had also been re-infected with the virus.

Dutch broadcaster NOS cited virologist Marion Koopmans as saying
the patient in the Netherlands was an older person with a weakened immune system.

“That someone would pop up with a re-infection, it doesn’t make me nervous,” she said.
“We have to see whether it happens often.”

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 25/08/2020 16:53

China still OTT

Residents in the capital of Xinjiang province in China are being forced to stay indoors and if they attempt to leave are handcuffed to their buildings Confused

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/25/xinjiang-residents-handcuffed-to-their-homes-in-covid-lockdown

residents were warned that everything from social credit rating to their children’s school admissions could be affected

OP posts:
PatriciaHolm · 25/08/2020 16:57

1,184 cases today, up from 1,089 last Monday and just up from 1,148 the previous week. Still no testing data though!!

Page has gone into a death spiral for me now though...

MRex · 25/08/2020 16:59

The results look spotty to me ;)

PatriciaHolm · 25/08/2020 17:02

@MRex

The results look spotty to me ;)
Very much so!! :-)
BigChocFrenzy · 25/08/2020 17:09

Treat today's figures with caution ?
but we can at least say it doesn't look like a fall or a big rise

OP posts:
PrayingandHoping · 25/08/2020 17:18

Healthcare page won't even load ..... ??

HoldingTight · 25/08/2020 17:18

The site seems to have died.

alreadytaken · 25/08/2020 17:29

More on the Belgian lady infected twice

"The Belgian case was a woman who had contracted Covid-19 for the first time in March and then a second time in June.

Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst told Belgian broadcaster VRT that the woman, whose symptoms were relatively mild, may not have created enough antibodies to prevent a reinfection, although they might have helped limit the sickness.

“I think that in the coming days that we will see other similar stories ... These could be exceptions, but do exist and it’s not just one,” Mr Van Ranst said. “It’s not good news.”

In the Hong Kong case, gene sequencing was carried out to prove that the man had been infected with two different strains of Sars-CoV-2.

First human reinfected with coronavirus, study claims
The same sequencing was applied for the Dutch patient, Ms Koopmans told The Independent, though it is not yet known if this was the case for the Belgian woman. "

Data site is worse than when it was a beta.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/08/2020 17:30

On UK dashboard, on all pages, I just get whirling dots instead of figuresConfused
(I thought it was my contact lenses rotating !)

OP posts:
alreadytaken · 25/08/2020 17:31

Lots of talk about schools - but I'm glad I dont have a university age child. www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0825/1161101-coronavirus-world/

PatriciaHolm · 25/08/2020 17:39

Yes me too @BigChocFrenzy. It really seems to be struggling today.

PatriciaHolm · 25/08/2020 17:46

[quote alreadytaken]Lots of talk about schools - but I'm glad I dont have a university age child. www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0825/1161101-coronavirus-world/[/quote]
Yes - though Alabama has a rate of 223 infections per 100,000 population in the last 14 days, and a testing positive % rate of 5%, so one might argue was in no place to even think about getting students back!

We are far far from that - UK is at around 11.5 and 0.6%.

PatriciaHolm · 25/08/2020 17:51

PHE have tweeted that the board is having "technical difficulties"....

And confirming 1,184 cases, and 16 deaths.

sunseekin · 25/08/2020 17:51

@PatriciaHolm

1,184 cases today, up from 1,089 last Monday and just up from 1,148 the previous week. Still no testing data though!!

Page has gone into a death spiral for me now though...

Is that from last Tuesday? Spotty here too!

Just wondering - what happens to the cases we do in Newcastle for Scotland? Is it just the postcode of the person being tested rather than the testing centre?

sunseekin · 25/08/2020 17:53

@PatriciaHolm do you know if the % are broken down to nation for the positive percentage rate? Sorry, another question, will try and be useful one day!

PatriciaHolm · 25/08/2020 17:56

[quote sunseekin]@PatriciaHolm do you know if the % are broken down to nation for the positive percentage rate? Sorry, another question, will try and be useful one day![/quote]
It can be worked out from the stats on the gov website, as it was, at least until the 20th, publishing testing by nation and cases by nation. I just work them out, the Gov site doesn't publish them specifically.

But it's all gone kaput at the moment!

PatriciaHolm · 25/08/2020 17:57

Oh and Positives are recorded by residential postcode.

HoldingTight · 25/08/2020 18:05

We are far far from that - UK is at around 11.5 and 0.6%.

Isn't that 11.5 the 7 day number? I thought the 14 day rate is currently 22.5

PatriciaHolm · 25/08/2020 18:09

@HoldingTight

We are far far from that - UK is at around 11.5 and 0.6%.

Isn't that 11.5 the 7 day number? I thought the 14 day rate is currently 22.5

Ah yes! Well caught. I did 7 days not 14, apologies, thanks.