Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

The 2 (28 day count) on the 21st was artificially low due to phe removing a lot of deaths. Apparently the 17 on the 22nd was due to them realising some of these were removed wrongly and re adding them.I suspect the same thing affected the 60 day count. As Patriciaholm says the lower figures are probably the PHE weekend lag so expect slightly higher figures tomorrow. 7 day averages are the figures to watch.

@HoldingTight

Apologies if this has been covered already - and if it's blatantly obvious.

The daily cases by nation don't add up to the total for today or yesterday. Today:

Daily cases = 853

Yet England = 758, NI = 200, Scotland = 66 and Wales = 19. Giving a total of 1043.

Yesterday's was only 19 different.

I expect I'm being dense :)

Something to do with the Northern Ireland reporting I think, I don't think they report on weekends so Monday's figures can be odd

@HoldingTight

Apologies if this has been covered already - and if it's blatantly obvious.

The daily cases by nation don't add up to the total for today or yesterday. Today:

Daily cases = 853

Yet England = 758, NI = 200, Scotland = 66 and Wales = 19. Giving a total of 1043.

Yesterday's was only 19 different.

I expect I'm being dense :)

Also ... Ganesh Ranganathan is reporting 972 cases. Where has this come from? I'm v

I've just refreshed and the NI number has changed from 200 to 10. I think I'll give up.

You're not being dense! @HoldingTight!

It seems the NI data hasn't been included in the first published number again today (thought it's still 10 adrift without it at 843).

However - I think it's something screwy with the NI data. NI announced 10 new cases today, not 200. Which would make the daily total 853 - also the cumulative difference between NI numbers for 23 and 24 is 10. Which matches.

The 200 may be something historical, possibly. Or an error!

Ha, yes the NI number has now switched to 10!

Raganathan seems to have added in yesterday's 119 NI cases onto his today's total, as he missed them off yesterdays total in his daily Tweet (presumably because they appeared after his tweet!) So his running total remains correct.

So depending on how you want to look at it, it's 972 today (instead of 853) or it was 1,279 yesterday (instead of 1,160).

@Redolent

So depending on how you want to look at it, it's 972 today (instead of 853) or it was 1,279 yesterday (instead of 1,160).

No - it's 1,160 yesterday and 853 today. The 1,160 is the revised figure including the NI 119.

anyone else feeling that the timeliness and quality of the data has deteriorated badly recently?

Does anyone know a way to find out the total number of confirmed cases by age group please ?? In the UK

@changeynamechangey there's age pyramid data in the weekly surveillance report and supporting data file www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

the bands are quite broad though 0-5; 5-14; then 15-44; 45-64; 65-74; 75-84 and 85s and over

@PatriciaHolm Ah right thanks.

@alreadytaken

anyone else feeling that the timeliness and quality of the data has deteriorated badly recently?

there have certainly been a few hiccups over the past couple of weeks since the new dashboard became the main live site. Health being a devolved matter does not help either; four ways of counting things, and we all know about the saga of reporting fatalities

A couple of other nerdy date points

• the figure published for England today contained 33 cases with specimen dates from May, and,
• if not already recognised, over 9,000 of the English cumulative cases are homeless (as in their geographic location cannot be defined beyond "England")

MN Webchat Vicky Ford, Minister for Children, Wednesday 26 August at 11am

I've posted a question there about the saliva and rapid swab tests for schools
and another about infection criteria for closing bubbles and schools.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnetlivee_events/4001863-Webchat-with-Vicky-Ford-Minister-for-Children-Wednesday-26-August-at-11am

First Case of COVID-19 Reinfection Confirmed

• Viral sequence disparity indicates Hong Kong case not simply prolonged infection

Researchers at the University of Hong Kong used genomic sequence analysis to identify the 2 different strains, infected 4.5 months apart

Paper to be published in J Clinical Infectious Diseases

www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88234

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-24/hong-kong-reports-first-coronavirus-re-infection-in-it-worker

Just commenting to mark my place :)

Thanks for the link to that article about the man who caught it twice @Bigchoc. Except he didn't really have it twice it appears from the article (as opposed to the press coverage I'd seen earlier) as he was asymptomatic the second time This surely suggests he was able to mount an effective immune response because of past exposure doesn't it? I won't really care if I catch Covid regularly if it doesn't make me ill the subsequent times. (Though I guess there is a small risk of an asymptomatic person passing it on to others)

The fact he caught it twice is what is important - it establishes it can happen and after only 4.5 months
Previously it was thought immunity would last 1-2 years

We don't know what % of middle-aged and elderly people will be asymptomatic a 2nd time,
especially if they are among those who suffered significantly the first time round

Many public health experts state that asymptomatic people can indeed shed virus,
although if they do, it is likely to be a lesser amount than someone with symptoms.

COVID entered Hong Kong earlier than Europe, but they seem to have had far fewer cases
We need to see what happens to the > 2 million cases in Europe over the next few months, particularly if infections rise over winter

I would be a lot less concerned if this had not happened in a country with < 5,000 confirmed cases

WHO cautious about plasma therapy:

Insufficient data on balance of benefits vs risks

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/aug/24/coronavirus-live-news-send-children-to-school-uk-pm-urges-france-sees-highest-cases-since-may?page=with:block-5f439e7c8f08c26134252ccb#block-5f439e7c8f08c26134252ccb

Dr Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist at the WHO, stressed that it was still unproven and that there was “very low evidence” it was safe and effective.

“There are a number of clinical trials going on around the world looking at convalescent plasma … but only a few of them have reported on results.
The results are not conclusive.
...
Dr Bruce Aylward, senior adviser to the director general of the WHO, warned that the side-effects of convalescent plasma ranged from mild chills and fevers to more severe lung problems and circulatory overload.”

I found this article (pdf download in German pre-publication) on the RKI website about where infections (Ausbrüche >= 2 positives) seem to have happened.

www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/38/Art_01.html

[quote BigChocFrenzy]MN Webchat Vicky Ford, Minister for Children, Wednesday 26 August at 11am

I've posted a question there about the saliva and rapid swab tests for schools
and another about infection criteria for closing bubbles and schools.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnetlivee_events/4001863-Webchat-with-Vicky-Ford-Minister-for-Children-Wednesday-26-August-at-11am[/quote]
Thanks big.

Just looked at NHS advice site and there's new wording (which I've made bold here) re timescales for tests, availability and results:

"You can have a test (swab test) to check if you have coronavirus (COVID-19) now. You can choose to take the test:
• at a test site near you today and get your result tomorrow
• with a home test kit"

So they're obviously now prepared to commit to 24 hr results upfront. Am certainly still seeing posters on some threads waiting several days for results however (and there's the reported problems in Scotland as well).

@AugustBreeze

Just looked at NHS advice site and there's new wording (which I've made bold here) re timescales for tests, availability and results:

"You can have a test (swab test) to check if you have coronavirus (COVID-19) now. You can choose to take the test:
• at a test site near you today and get your result tomorrow
• with a home test kit"

So they're obviously now prepared to commit to 24 hr results upfront. Am certainly still seeing posters on some threads waiting several days for results however (and there's the reported problems in Scotland as well).

Well I live east of Bristol and my closest test centre is Swansea.

My friend in Kingston upon Thames just tried to get a test and the closest centre is Hackney.

They seem to be closing all the locations.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-reinfected-hong-kong-covid-19-study-a9685571.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Just seen this on breaking news, I am suprised as I thought they had establised that antibodies and T Cells give long term immunity, or am I reading this incorrectly.