Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Patients IN hospital still coming down though and that data is more recent than admissions

The local news speculated it was either Greencore themselves or Matt Hancock who made the decision.

It would completely make commercial sense for M&S to demand closure and to publicise it, as I guess their sandwich sales have been falling rather!

My bet would be M&S decided to close, sensible to do so - and I dont trust Matt Hancock to have that much sense. According to the Welsh press the factory on Anglesey closed, at least until testing was complete (which seems to have been pretty rapid). No idea how long it was closed.

Numbers in hospital lag admissions, so need to look tomorrow at the North West.

Sorry, looked again - and the number in hospital continued to fall in the North West.

Hospital admissions rising would not be a surprise, the surprise will be if they are not increasing. Not sure I trust the admissions data now, this government fiddle any data they can.

I've been at my UK gym and pool nearly every day since it re opened in late July.
Lots of over 70s and people who would be shielding if they were on MN.
Instead they are loving being back in a social life and getting fit.

I'd be gobsmacked if a gym gets linked to any sort of outbreak as we are all being very careful.

THat and the rate in this area is 4 per 100,000

Not sure I trust the admissions data now, this government fiddle any data they can.
But 75% of recent positive tests have been utterly asymptomatic.

There have been high levels of positive tests in parts of the North West for some weeks now. It would be surprising if it wasnt spreading to some more vulnerable people who end up either dead or in hospital. Deaths are moving back towards the normal level for this year, the surprising thing is that hospital admissions are not increasing.

And why would it be that the average age of admission to ICU is higher now? (Referencing my earlier question)

There have been high levels of positive tests in parts of the North West for some weeks now.
104 per 100,000
1 per 1000
not a high level for a highly infectious disease

I know this is ISAGE so will all just be ignored but there does seem to be an air of slight panic about universities and their impact:

www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/21/make-covid-19-tests-compulsory-for-university-students-say-scientists-sage

Testing all Uni students for COVID is no more extreme than vaccinating whole campuses against Meningitis 20 years ago.
Makes utter sense to me.
If nothing else then its a cracking data set

Though local Universities here are currently planning on a year of students at home for non-practical subjects. One lecturer friend has booked their exams/seminar slots and that is the only time they are going to be in with first year students! So it would need to be a cohort that is in Uni,

Though local Universities here are currently planning on a year of students at home for non-practical subjects.
with fees at £3150 per term they are taking the piss

DS moves into halls in a few weeks and WILL be getting face to face.
After last term where I had two kids paying out for bugger all
it won't be tolerated again

A year at home or online teaching?

My DS's idea of heaven is going back to uni but not having to do any actual work...bless him.

@ListeningQuietly

Though local Universities here are currently planning on a year of students at home for non-practical subjects. with fees at £3150 per term they are taking the piss

DS moves into halls in a few weeks and WILL be getting face to face.
After last term where I had two kids paying out for bugger all
it won't be tolerated again

Nobody’s forcing him to attend nor to shell out that kind of money for what will inevitably be a disrupted year.

The bbc are reporting that the R rate is rising and is now between 0.9 and 1.1
This is going to sound thick - but is that because we’re testing more or are there many more infections boosting the figure?

My understanding is that the R rate is pretty irrelevant when there are low numbers of cases.

1 person passing it to the 3 people they live with would result in a higher R rate than 1000 people each passing it to 1 other person.

Redolent
Summer term 2020
My kids each incurred £3000+ of tuition fee debt
and got ZILCH teaching
between them I paid out £1000 a month to private landlords for houses they could not use

the year I'm pissed off about is the one just ended

next year we've all taken our chances

Cases in the North West are running at around 1/3rd of the peak value - over the past weeks around 240-250 per day on average. Admissions then were averaging 400 a day. Of course cases were very much undercounted at the peak of the epidemic - I still find the recent low level of admissions in the North West surprising.

"Cases in the North West are running at around 1/3rd of the peak value"

Massive difference in testing and in % positivity, between then & now

I very roughly estimated upthread for Germany that cases were in reality about 1/30th of peak and that,
together with about 12 years younger age of infection, improved treatment / meds,
makes current v low deaths and hospitalisations understandable

I'm sure a similar ratio holds for the UK, so an order of magnitude more than ⅓
(but I don't have a neat RKI-type table summarising the weeks, for easy calculation for UK)

@Piggywaspushed online teaching, so students may be at Uni I guess. In fact I know lecturers at 4 Universities and only one expects some face to face ( think a subject like medicine) but not as much as usual with as much online as possible. Whereas one lecturer has moaned about no schools open and how they all should but is not happy about lecturing students in the same room as him and is happy to do it all online.

The data would be interesting though if it could be collected.

UK deaths are ave 10 deaths a day - and are much lower with the way they are now done at 28 days. Does this mean previous death totals were incorrect or that more people die between day 28 and day 60?

ONS figures are the gold standard, as they go by registered deaths and have more data than PHE daily reports.

From their figures, the 28 days under-counts and the 60 days over-counts, see attached chart 1

The previous PHE over-counting is still much less than their earlier gross under-counting, see chart 2

Office for National Statistics (ONS)**@ONS

In England, of all deaths that occurred up to 7 August (registered up 15 August), 49,318 involved #COVID19

For the same period, @DHSCgovuk reported 36,645 COVID-19 deaths (where the death occurred within 28 days of receiving a positive test)
http://ow.ly/u3q650B2bZT

AugustBreeze - I'm just guessing, but I think the reason for the rise in age of people in ICU is simply that at the height of the pandemic older people weren't put in ICU because there wasn't enough space. Also, at that time (back in March) ICU meant intubation, which has very poor results for the elderly many of whom simply don't survive periods of intubation.

Now treatment protocols have improved, and include early oxygen supply (sometimes by CPAP, sometimes via trachyotomy, together with anti-virals, anti-clotting drugs, antibiotics for secondary infection etc etc, all of which is now being done for poorly elderly patients in intensive care units which now have available beds.

To those who are surprised by low levels of admissions in the NW.

Perhaps they are old cases. People testing positive who were infectious weeks and weeks ago. Before testing was available.

It would explain why they are asymptomatic.

If this is regularly happening it would make compulsory testing for students unworkable. They could be testing positive for months.

I'm sure a similar ratio holds for the UK, so an order of magnitude more than ⅓

There's also a difference in infections, during lockdown many more of the people who were infected were infected in places which couldn't be adequately locked down - most of them are places with vulnerable people - care homes, hospitals etc.