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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 21:37

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
104
Piggywaspushed · 22/08/2020 11:08

Ah yes cloud, the positions on 'teaching' at unis and schools are somewhat -ermmm- divergent.

I think my DS is all online but he isn't a reliable source!

AugustBreeze · 22/08/2020 11:50

Thanks @OrangeGeckoWithBlackSpots that makes total sense!

tootyfruitypickle · 22/08/2020 12:19

Are local councils tracking where cases are? Eg a LA near me has a rate of 20 now of per 100,000, but I’m assuming that the detail the LA have tells them where it is , ie local restrictions are only thought about once they know it’s general community transmission rather than a workplace or a household? Issue with countries reaching this point is that we don’t have the level of detail to know if it’s community transmission or not? Most areas around me seem to be at a rate of 10 which is a significant rise but in itself obviously very low.

ListeningQuietly · 22/08/2020 12:26

Councils have the full postcode data and the local public health teams are working hard
in the way they do with ALL infectious and notifiable diseases.
They will NEVER disclose what they are finding because they also track and trace STDs and HIV

tootyfruitypickle · 22/08/2020 12:54

I heard the local council’s director of health on the news explaining that it was all about whether they identified community transmission, so I’m assuming that these usual practices (as you describe @ListeningQuietly) are actually what’s crucial on the ground, and test and trace is a supplement to the existing methods? Issue with overseas travel is that there is nothing like this level of detail available just blunt figures.

MarcelineMissouri · 22/08/2020 16:19

1288 new cases today compared to 1077 last Saturday. And deaths 18 today v 3 last week.

MarcelineMissouri · 22/08/2020 16:31

Rolling 7 day case average is down though. Does anyone else follow him on twitter?

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15
Littlebelina · 22/08/2020 16:36

@MarcelineMissouri

1288 new cases today compared to 1077 last Saturday. And deaths 18 today v 3 last week.
A reasonable number of those deaths are historic by the looks. Some back as far as March/April

mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1297193626448072706

MarcelineMissouri · 22/08/2020 16:38

@Littlebelina gosh that’s a high number! I follow RP131 as well - so lucky there are so many people around on twitter, here etc that are able to make sense of the figures coming out and explain them!

Littlebelina · 22/08/2020 16:40

I like David Paton marceline, he does good graphs

Littlebelina · 22/08/2020 16:43

[quote MarcelineMissouri]@Littlebelina gosh that’s a high number! I follow RP131 as well - so lucky there are so many people around on twitter, here etc that are able to make sense of the figures coming out and explain them![/quote]
Yes, I don't have a twitter account but do now have a list of various accounts I try to visit to get the big picture. I try to get a range of people across the "we're all doomed" to "look it might be OK" spectrum but try to avoid the extremists

Yummyoldbag · 22/08/2020 16:55

A friend has noticed the Zoe app shows a number of cases in her District, the directgov site shows far fewer. I recall a conversation here explaining why this might be so, but am unable to find it despite scrolling. Please would someone help me to explain this simply? She is very anxious.

MRex · 22/08/2020 16:59

The Zoe app makes assumptions by modelling from the 4m filling in the app, so their local area stats can be rocked quite easily by a few cases when cases are low.

alreadytaken · 22/08/2020 18:34

Multiply the cases in the North West at the peak of the pandemic by 5 and you still have a disproportionately low number of hospital admissions now compared to the peak. Since it is now possible to do more for those with the virus and beds are under less pressure it would be appropriate to admit more people rather than less.

boys3 · 22/08/2020 18:48

@MarcelineMissouri

1288 new cases today compared to 1077 last Saturday. And deaths 18 today v 3 last week.
Those LAs in England adding the most cases to today's (English) total.

20% of LAs; 67% of cases added.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15
BigChocFrenzy · 22/08/2020 18:52

I haven't heard of police stations being closed elsewhere in the UK
but 2 closed for deep cleaning in NI, after several police officers became ill

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/22/eight-police-officers-northern-ireland-station-test-positive-covid-antrim-newtownabbey

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Shitfuckoh · 22/08/2020 18:57

First time I've heard of any closing too

BigChocFrenzy · 22/08/2020 18:57

The 123 cases in Scotland, the largest daily increase there since May, is mostly due to the outbreak at the Tayside plant, associated with 78 cases so far
However, usually easier to deal with a single large outbreak than a large number of small ones scattered around the country

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SellFridges · 22/08/2020 18:58

I do wish there was some way of getting more specific numbers for Birmingham. It’s a city of 1.1m people so not at all a surprise to see it at the top. Manchester is probably similar.

On a daily rate per 100k though that puts Birmingham at about 4 cases. In comparison, I would guess that Oldham and Swindon both cover around 100k people total which gives a VERY misleading picture. Their rates are 3 times higher.

I’m not saying there isn’t a current problem in Birmingham, but that table is misleading imo.

boys3 · 22/08/2020 19:17

@SellFridges

This simple cases added list is, as you rightly point out, lacking in broader context, especially with Brum having a population over a million. I'll try to do better next time

Here's one taking the last two weeks; and using 13th -19th Aug specimen date data as the most recent week.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15
BigChocFrenzy · 22/08/2020 19:18

Germany - schools

Cases reported in > 40 out of the 825 schools in Berlin, population 3.8 million, only 2 weeks after schools there opened
(different dates in different German states)

Positive tests were for all ages, from the youngest in primary school through to secondary school teens, also teachers.
No reports of serious illness yet, students or staff, but hardly time for this to show.

Berlin schools, like in most states, have compulsory masks only for corridors and breaks, not in classrooms - masks optional there for staff & students
Considerable discussion here about making masks compulsory in classrooms too, which - afaik - so far only the state of North-Rhine Westphalia has ordered

France is going to order this, when their schools return in early September

Berlin has 7-day incidence of 11.2 / 100,000 population, which is only slightly higher than the current German average of 10.2

R-number in Germany has been 1.0 or higher since mid-July
and imo when cases are mostly community spread - lots of small outbreaks instead of a couple of large ones - then R is important again

The RKI says this rise is mostly driven by young holidaymakers returning and also large parties, including family gatherings

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boys3 · 22/08/2020 19:21

@SellFridges and here's the Brum cases per 100,000 at LSOA level published with yesterday's PHE surveillance report. Each map covers a two week period so again the potential to mislead. They'd be better off covering the four weeks by publishing a separate map for each week on one page to give a better sense of where case are increasing / reducing.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15
BigChocFrenzy · 22/08/2020 19:22

iirc, Berlin generally has classes much larger than the German average of (according to OECD report) 21 in primary, 14 in secondary

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SellFridges · 22/08/2020 19:22

@boys3 Thank you! I didn’t mean to criticise, but there’s so much in the press at the moment that seems to forget just how many people live here and how big the city area is that it’s getting frustrating.

Prokupatuscrakedatus · 22/08/2020 19:30

I have reported about my experience in another thread, but want to add that at DS school masks in classes are strongly recommended by teachers and parents.

What do you sane people think of the "concert experiment"?

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