Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

perhaps that rave is the explanation for a bit of an increase at Bristol coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bristol,%20City%20of

and possibly in Bath, although that comes later coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bath%20and%20North%20East%20Somerset

Sheffield is having a bumpy ride too coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Sheffield

@alreadytaken possibly but I think with raves because they are advertised via Facebook Etc people travel large distances.

I think unless we start using the kind of surveillance that South Korea uses for example with access to mobile phone data etc which Boris would never allow, track and trace will never work very well

@tootyfruitypickle

Issue for these places I think is what happens if there is an outbreak linked to them and they’re shown to have not been following the rules. Seems a big gamble when it’s your business. They seem to hone down on routes of transmission very quickly.

Is there any more news from Northampton?

I think people get confused between law and guidance.

I don't think business owners deliberately set out to break the law or fail HSE inspections.

Some places (we have them here) are genuinely under the impression they fit a certain business (which others don't think they do) and as long as they have risk assessments it's fine.

I've said before the biggest failure I honk we've had is public health messaging and reasoning being clear from the top.

Nicola Sturgeon has made mistakes but I think she's had more Teflon because at least she clearly explains her rationale and people know why they are doing what they are - even if they don't like it!

@cathyandclare

Latest ONS infection survey is out. The rise in cases in July has levelled out: The latest summary: An estimated 24,600 people (95% credible interval: 16,900 to 33,800) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 7 to 13 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 2,200 individuals

Previous week:
An estimated 28,300 people (95% credible interval: 19,000 to 40,700) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 3 to 9 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,900 individuals

Still very low numbers though. It will all become more meaningful when they recruit the extra people ( or if infections go up, but hoping that won't happen!)

That is good news.

I've been registered for the expanded survey, but been waiting a couple of weeks to have anything arranged.

@alreadytaken

Wales just announcing on tv that 90% of people give details of contacts and 90% of those are traced. Makes England's scheme look more pathetic.

I think NS announced the other day that Scotland has traced more than 97 or 98% of contacts. I truly don't know what England is getting so wrong.

Jen its an F. South central

@boys3

Couple of interesting maps in the weekly test and trace report

This one is:

Proportion of people transferred to the contact tracing system who were reached by upper tier local authority (UTLA)
Figure 7: Percentage of cases reached and asked to provide details of recent close contacts by UTLA since Test and Trace began.

Looking at that map it seems to read to me the lower infected areas have better levels of contract tracing?

I suppose in a correlation way that would make sense?

I dont know who is running the Scottish or Welsh systems - but I do know that the person responsible for running England's system has a track record that included the massive failure at talk talk. The appointment was subject to criticism even in those papers that favour the tories.

@itsgettingweird I agree. Track and trace would work a whole lot better if people trusted and understood what the government is trying to do.

But also if people got something approaching full pay while isolating., possibly proper food deliveries etc as in other countries.

.

The bbc are reporting that the R rate is rising and is now between 0.9 and 1.1
This is going to sound thick - but is that because we’re testing more or are there many more infections boosting the figure?

@twolittleboysonetiredmum

The bbc are reporting that the R rate is rising and is now between 0.9 and 1.1 This is going to sound thick - but is that because we’re testing more or are there many more infections boosting the figure?

I saw that just after it was posted here about ONS and infection rates stabilising.

All I ended up doing was

Genie is trust the people here more than the MSM right now

It's been reported that when numbers are low, localised outbreaks like Northampton can disproportionately affect the R. We saw that in Germany as they were emerging from lockdown, outbreaks in food processing plants drove the R up.

1033 cases and just 2 deaths today

Mainstream media will all want a variety of articles, with some saying everything's fine and others saying it's all falling apart. Then when it's clear what the direction is, they can say "look, we told you so".

Ah yes now I’d forgotten about outbreaks - that’s great re the number of deaths though I know they don’t actually mean anything

twolittleboysonetiredmum

The bbc are reporting that the R rate is rising and is now between 0.9 and 1.1
This is going to sound thick - but is that because we’re testing more or are there many more infections boosting the figure?

I'd interpret that as a sign that infection levels are largely flat at the moment. Obviously there is quite a lot of uncertainty when so many cases are asymptomatic but when cases were falling down to 400/500 a day positive cases etc it was still what 0.5 to 0.8.

Now cases seem largely flat with some of those numbers coming from large outbreaks in food factories etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/aug/21/coronavirus-uk-birmingham-residents-urged-to-act-avert-lockdown-covid-19-live-news?page=with:block-5f3fef878f08c26134250ed6#block-5f3fef878f08c26134250ed6

[England] In the country’s 20 worst-hit areas, Serco and Sitel – paid £200m between them – reached only 54% of people who had been in close proximity to an infected person,
meaning more than 21,000 exposed people were not contacted.

Can I ask something that's probably already been discussed, but I can't remember the answer:

Many countries reporting that there are now older, but less seriously ill, people in Intensive Care. How can this be, if age is the biggest risk factor?

Because they’ve got it more mildly, because they have less serious underlying health conditions in the first place, because they have been given the right early treatment to stop it getting as bad as it otherwise might have.

Not sure if this made national news but the Greencore factory in Northampton has been closed and every employee and their family is to SI for two weeks. Some lack of clarity on who directed the closure.

from today's weekly surveillance reports; level of testing in most, though not all, of the watched list areas, down a bit as compared to the previous week.

I was just coming to mention the Greencore closure, it has made the press. No details on who took the decision to close but M&S did pay for testing so may have been them.

Hospital admissions seem to have gone up today, mainly in the North West Region.

Personally I ignore the R rate, dont think a national rate is helpful when there are now considerable geographic differences.

Gosh at the Greencore news. Not enforceable (families etc) though, presumably. Is that what happened at the Anglesey site?

@alreadytaken

I was just coming to mention the Greencore closure, it has made the press. No details on who took the decision to close but M&S did pay for testing so may have been them.

Hospital admissions seem to have gone up today, mainly in the North West Region.

Personally I ignore the R rate, dont think a national rate is helpful when there are now considerable geographic differences.

Patients in hospital in the North West still seems to be going steadily down though according to the dashboard which doesn't seem to tally with the increase in admissions (unless a lot of people got discharged at same time).

I think there have been reporting issues in the North West before so will be interesting to see what both sets of figures do over the next few days