Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Oldbutstillgotit

@ Coquohvan NS did say it is an indicative date . There are rising infection numbers in Scotland and the FM is very cautious so i wouldn’t dust off your gym kit just yet .

Yes I heard that in her announcement. Has there been any cases tracked back to gyms either UK or elsewhere I wonder?

I've been attending my gym in Germany, since it reopened on 16 May

Being a 64-year-old gym rat, I've kept a very careful eye open for news of gym infections anywhere in the country, but I haven't read anything of this in the detailled RKI reports or anywhere else

There may well have been occasional cases from community spread, but no gym has yet been reported as an epicentre

I went along with my dd to try a new sport this week, which was fantastic as she loved it and it improved her MH right from the off. However, the trainer got very close over a significant period of time (inside) and some of the things they did and said about the way the club was operating made me slightly uncomfortable. I've just done some research into what's permitted in that particular sport, and they are breaking the law. Which is such a shame as it's now yet another thing to go on the "when covid is over" list. Initially I thought I could overlook the slight risk (as I'd picked 121 over a class) but given that it's actually quite clearly breaking the law, I don't think I can comfortably go back right now. Incidentally they were also planning a sleepover on their premises for members so this was one of the things that triggered a bit of a mind fuck in my head and prompted me to look into the actual rules .

Polarisation in people's approaches is really starting to divide society I think now. People panicking about schools going back vs people totally ignoring the rules and carrying on as normal. I think most of us are somewhere in the middle thankfully.

So I think when the inevitable gym outbreak happens - it may be because of approaches like this, rather than because gyms are unsafe per se. If the covid rules are followed, no reason they are a big risk.

Numbers where my parents live in in the south have also shown a bit of a jump this past week, not enough to cause major concern, but it was a bit of a shock when I saw them.

I'm south and we've had 9 cases in my town in 3 days.

That's more than last 9 weeks.

I'm watching.

@BigChocFrenzy

I've been attending my gym in Germany, since it reopened on 16 May

Being a 64-year-old gym rat, I've kept a very careful eye open for news of gym infections anywhere in the country, but I haven't read anything of this in the detailled RKI reports or anywhere else

There may well have been occasional cases from community spread, but no gym has yet been reported as an epicentre

It’s our daughters gym, we love the gym go several times a week. Both mid 60’s. Good to hear your positive reply re epicentre. Almost 6 mths closed up here. @tootyfruitypickle gymnastics?

Sorry I'll be more accurate.

8 cases this week over 3 days. None past 4 but obviously can be backdated.

Since 11/7 until the start of these 8 we had 8 cases dotted around where there was 1 case for 2 days and then nothing for a week etc.

We actually went almost 3 weeks with no cases and was a town on boys cheer list last week

@Coquohvan no it was a martial art and they used padwork which I understand is strictly banned. I could insist on a covid secure training but it makes me doubt the safety of the entire place, which is gutting really.

Hope you get back to the gym soon!

Does anyone know anything about pools? Was a pool an epicentre of an outbreak? Like a proper sporty swimming pool, not a waterpark. I hesitate to send DD back to swimming in Sept. Thanks

@MrsCoyote

Does anyone know anything about pools? Was a pool an epicentre of an outbreak? Like a proper sporty swimming pool, not a waterpark. I hesitate to send DD back to swimming in Sept. Thanks

Not heard any pools as outbreaks. They've only just opened. Ds is a competitive swimmer and back a week and a half now.

Have a look at swim England guidance (or whatever country).

It's all very well done and designed around maintaining SD.

Did anyone see the article in sky news today about Oldham.

It was actually quite interesting. It went into town centre and comments were signs worn away on floors, no public signage and not clear, lack of organisation etc. Obviously haven't been there but it made me think in stark contrast to my town, local towns and cities.

Everything is one way. Ds was pissing himself today when we walked right the way around the mall to get out the other side for the bank. Then right the way around again as we'd passed Superdrug and I'd said we'd go last as it was bulk of stuff.

Signs everywhere. Queue marks on floor. Toilets manned.

The comment in the article was it was easy to see why it's a hot spot.

It raised 2 things for me. Firstly the question of funding. Is it these areas can't afford this? If that's the case knowing what we know about low income areas disproportionately affected surely there should be some funding or perhaps national signage sent out? Secondly if this is just anecdotal to one town related to hotspot or if all areas with continued high rate incidence as similar?
Especially as we are learning more about areas shut down are far more centred in a smaller area than feb actual radius of the measures applied.

Same as itsgettingweird, I have two competitive swimmers and the club has been back a couple of weeks. The guidance from Swim England is thorough, and the way sessions are run has been altered to avoid/minimise contact between the swimmers. It is all well done and minimal risk from what I have seen

This study may be f interest to those hoping the virus will mutate to a milder form - it did in Singapore but but the mutation seems to have died out. www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31757-8/fulltext

Is there a delay with the results today?

According to Karol Sikora today's case number is 1,182 which is up slightly on last Thursday's 1,129

However cases in England are down a bit on last week's total - 1,035 versus 1,059 - which makes me wonder if the rise in the overall figure is largely down to Scotland's outbreak

No 1182 cases and 6 deaths

Cases up a bit but also lots of pillar 2 testing done. 116k

Thank you.

@tootyfruitypickle - getting too close and planning sleepovers raises a number of other alarm bells with kid sports!

France have recorded 4771 new cases today!!!

Also very sad to see Italy starting to increase - they seemed to be doing so well.

@BigChocFrenzy
**So we have quite a margin in which current SD etc has a good chance of keeping COVID down to a 2nd RIpple rather than a 2nd Wave.

I like your analysis, but I'm afraid I have a little less faith. So many countries are getting a resurgence that it makes me feel it is all a little precarious.

[quote MRex]@BigChocFrenzy
**So we have quite a margin in which current SD etc has a good chance of keeping COVID down to a 2nd RIpple rather than a 2nd Wave.

I like your analysis, but I'm afraid I have a little less faith. So many countries are getting a resurgence that it makes me feel it is all a little precarious.[/quote]
....
Not faith, but my current assessment of data - which of course may be wrong !

Cases - in rl not tests - are at least an order of magnitude below where they were
and so much more is now known about COVID

A rise in cases was inevitable when lockdown was relaxed this much in the UK & on the continent,
but a certain amount is acceptable in order to get 90% of the economy running again this Autumn

Public health authorities will keep observing and analysing data like cases, cases gradient, % positive tests, hospitalisations, deaths

Each country will need to assess its individual risk based on factors like population density, culture, public compliance, demographics,

together with how well their public health can cope:
spare capacity of health service, efficiency of test, track & trace systems.

The tolerance of COVID risk, personal restrictions, economic damage will vary too between countries
and the quality of decision-making

What we can take as a positive so far in uk is that despite local outbreaks and some large areas of lockdown our numbers that rise have remained constant at the risen level.

Spain and France have seen constant increased cases daily and have gone from 50 a day and thinking how bad we are to 3-4 times out numbers quite quickly.

What we need to watch is our testing and numbers and hotspots numbers. Whilst checking if there are hotspots popping up elsewhere.

I also think we need to be hoping those from France and Spain do actually isolate or it'll be half term and Italy all over again

The testing/case data is so much better now. That hopefully will make a difference going forward.

I've been watching Leeds and it's fascinating to see the changing patterns. We're very close to all the places in the northern 'lockdown' areas. Over the last week out cases have increased by 50%. Still low for a biggest city 100- 150 but with close links to Calderdale, Kirklees, Bradford snd Wakefield it's worth keeping an eye.

The big unknown is to what extent schoolchildren will transmit this. There will be grandparents providing after school care again as well as parents and students potentially transmitting it. If we start off at a low level then I agree there is a chance of it being a ripple in places. I'm less optimistic about areas like the south west where levels have been low, there is a lot of shared school transport in the rural parts and it could easily go pear shaped. Then you have the places like North Lincolnshire with the factories not taking it seriously.

From one point of view the more young people who get it now the better, less likely to spread when schools go back. But young people do still die of this, as in Florida now, and I dislike hearing of the young dead. Universities going back are almost bound to produce an upturn in infection in young people.

Noticeable that some parts of London hit early are seeing small rises now.

I'll watch local figures closely and be ready to hibernate if necessary.

[quote tootyfruitypickle]@Coquohvan no it was a martial art and they used padwork which I understand is strictly banned. I could insist on a covid secure training but it makes me doubt the safety of the entire place, which is gutting really.

Hope you get back to the gym soon![/quote]
I asked the sport as there is a gymnastic centre nearby my daughters gym. They have been illegally open for a few weeks. Got closed down when Public Health were informed by a rival centre. Private gym owners are a close Community word does get about.
Good luck with your situation.