Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Issue for these places I think is what happens if there is an outbreak linked to them and they’re shown to have not been following the rules. Seems a big gamble when it’s your business. They seem to hone down on routes of transmission very quickly.

Is there any more news from Northampton?

Its I do think a proportion will be down to how organised the local council are, how that share practise with other neighbouring councils and their local ex PHE. The infrastructure.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hotspot areas are also those where things are not as cohesive from the top down. Though areas with a denser and less well off population will be harder to keep under control too.

We've had a small spike this last week; it will be interesting to see how it is dealt with. (The bars are the big issue here though and the source of a lot of the cases.)

The universities are a big concern to me and hardly ever spoken of.

That's a worry for me locally. Two universities, plus two collages.

We actually went almost 3 weeks with no cases and was a town on boys cheer list last week

Taking the last 7 days, well up to 18th Aug so probably more like 6.5 given they'll be cases still to feed through, that list has got a lot shorter.

but should be seen in this context (England)

The UK figures of 1,182 are for # people testing positive, not # positive cases as most other countries seem to be

So I've attempted to estimate #positive tests, to get some idea of the difference #people and #positive tests

UK dashboard has daily tests processed today ~ 190,000
Assuming 0.7% of tests are positive ==> 1,330 positive tests

i.e. quite similar to the # positive people

but still 30+ LAs with 2 or lower per 100,000 pop for those 7 days

Sorry boys3, my borough can no longer meet your list either, I suspect holidaymakers given the spotty little 2-4 random cases popping up. I keep a tight watch on my own borough and all of those MSOA areas had no cases for 2 months before.

Interesting; singing is no worse than talking at spreading particles, it's the volume of someone's voice that matters. Are superspreaders just loud people then? Whole new meaning to the phrase "use your indoor voice"!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53853961

whilst at the other end

these

then these, whilst not the highest, all have a rate per 100,000 above the overall English figure for those 7 days

@boys3

I have only just started reading this thread and it’s fascinating. Where do you get those stats from? Have you got a link. I wouldn’t mind checking my own town.

@bk187 coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases and there is a full case history file containing every LA downloadable at coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-data#legacy-csv-downloads

but from the main cases page you can filter by nation / region /LA to both see specific area figs and click on the arrow at the top right of the graph to download a csv file for the area selected

as I've started may as well add the rest for the last 7 days. These had between 8 and 9.99 cases per 100,000

between 6 and 7.99

between 4 and 5.99

between 2.01 and 3.99

Why have we not rolled out antibody testing yet?

As I understand it, any second positive cases have been attributed to being an extension of the original infection or shedding dead virus.

It costs £65 for a Bupa antibody test but £125 for private antigen (Current infection) testing.

I would feel far more confident to know I had antibodies and can't be certain when I was infected. The laws are still in place to protect people so I wouldn't present more risk I'd just feel less anxious going about daily life I. E kids at school, eating out etc

"Are superspreaders just loud people then?"

Some people have been proven to shed more virus in their exhalations than others, simply by being present
They are not necessarily loud
e.g. there have been superspreaders sitting quietly on buses, in offices etc

Then there are activities which make it more likely for all infected people to infect others
Volume is one of several factors that can affect anyone

That study on singing is very much an outlier, as other studies have shown that the type of breathing assocated with choirs is different to talking
There have been many outbreaks associated with singing, whether in churches or elsewhere

Also, even if volume is a factor, requiring people to sing quietly is likely unenforceable and impractical

@itsgettingweird

Numbers where my parents live in in the south have also shown a bit of a jump this past week, not enough to cause major concern, but it was a bit of a shock when I saw them.

I'm south and we've had 9 cases in my town in 3 days.

That's more than last 9 weeks.

I'm watching.

Im also south and had 9 cases in the last 3 days, wonder if we live in the same town, does it begin with a C

Looking at Boys 1st table, I only see about 20 LAs above the 20 / 100,000 level

• at which the UK government reportedly considers quarantine on people arriving from other countries

A couple of weeks ago someone shared a graph I think from the WHO that put case numbers into perspective. It was positive cases vs tests taken. Anything under 3% was seen as good.

Has there been any update to that graph? How we and other countries are doing?

@BigChocFrenzy

The UK figures of 1,182 are for # people testing positive, not # positive cases as most other countries seem to be

So I've attempted to estimate #positive tests, to get some idea of the difference #people and #positive tests

UK dashboard has daily tests processed today ~ 190,000
Assuming 0.7% of tests are positive ==> 1,330 positive tests

i.e. quite similar to the # positive people

@BigChocFrenzy whilst I don't disagree with the maths is the calculation itself valid?

The confirmed cases are new people who've tested positive; whilst the testing total contains all people tested including those more than once.

Today's test and trace weekly report shows that for 6th-12th Aug, and just for England, 431,268 people were newly tested, but in those 7 days considerably more than 431268 tests were processed. The dashboard does not show tests by date of actual test, but the total added each day to the cumulative total, still a reasonable approximation, totals just over 900,000 for Pillars 1 & 2 for 6-12 Aug - so more than double the actual number of individuals newly tested.

For that week the report adds that 6616 people newly tested positive in England so a rate of just over 1.5% - and in line with tests carried out being roughly double unique and new individuals.

Interestingly, and were it not for hospitalisation being both low and showing no indication of an upward trajectory slightly worrying, the number of individuals newly tested was a 2 reduction on the previous week.

I fear the overall testing numbers published hide the more pertinent realities.

2% reduction even