@itsgettingweird
Random musing as we know that immunity is still a huge area of debate and study.
But U.K. locked down late and had biggest death rate.
There were talks of "wait until it's over before comparing"
However there is some correlation in that France and Spain who locked down earlier and hard are now having a huge rise in cases and yet U.K. isn't (yet).
Perhaps there will be a balance out and perhaps it'll be proven that shutting everyone away and no community spread causes a bigger wave.
I wouldn't say either was right because our death toll is heartbreaking - but we may have a lower spread now as a result?
....
Herd immunity for COVID requires a vaccine, or it costs too many deaths
Without a vaccine, it is a terrible strategy - and denied by all governments - for a virus that is still estimated to have an IFR about 10 x flu.
Especially when we don't know how long or how complete immunity is
With a completely "novel" virus, the prognosis is much better if you catch it later,
after some treatment protocols and meds have been developed.
Think how far scientists and doctors have come over the last 5 months
Also, we now know much more about how to minimise the spread of infection, with masks and SD,
but in a targetted way instead of the blunderbus of lockdown
The cases are rising across Europe - including Sweden which didn't lock down at all -
but are likely still at least an order of magnitude lower than the 1st wave peak.
With all the knowledge gained about clusters & superspreaders, cases should be kept well below that 1st wave.
imo conclusions:
Even if there is a (small) 2nd wave this winter - which is by no means certain -
I don't expect the UK or continental European countries to have anything like the deaths of the 1st wave
Also, unclear whether the UK at only slightly higher % antibodies than its neighbours - about 7% vs 6% - will have significantly more immunity for this winter