Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Check-in

Ooops sorry, page break in 3rd link, which is to UK daily reports:
Corrected:

UK stats list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC

Placemarking - thanks, BigChoc

Thank you BigChoc.

New cases added, 7 day rolling average:

8/7 545
15/7 586
22/7 638
29/7 725
5/8 818

Sorry, meant to thank you for the thread BigChoc.

Thank you BigChoc!

892 new cases UK today. Last Weds was 763. Pretty high number of tests though; 7 day average of tests pretty much same as yesterday, but that's the highest it's been.

Thanks for new thread. Sad to see numbers still rising but if they’re testing more then that’s a given anyway
Experiencing total corona fatigue today

If there are more tests, has the % positive stayed the same, or risen ?

Thanks for the new thread.

Interesting reaction to the spike in Aberdeen, I wonder if BJ will be paying attention to the impact is has on the cluster.

@BigChocFrenzy

If there are more tests, has the % positive stayed the same, or risen ?

It's been pretty stable for about a week - the attached is the 7 day rolling average for announced tests and announced cases.

Both tests and cases will in actuality have happened/been processed over a number of days, but this gives a reasonable guide when done as a rolling average.

Thanks for new thread and for the continuing fact finding.

If there are more tests, has the % positive stayed the same, or risen ?

I read this morning (can't find the article now, either BBC or Daily Mail ) that the percentage % rate has remained pretty static at (I think) 0.5%.

Thanks for the helpful graph @PatriciaHolm. It looks to have just tilted up to 0.55% from 0.5%. Is that within the realms of normal deviation or do you think it has tilted up a bit?

It's grown from the low point on that graph (0.54%) to the highest point which is 0.61%; which it was 2 days ago and again today.

TBH, I think it might just be reflective of more targeted testing (which might result in a slightly higher % if you are testing more people in an area you know has infections).

Also it needs to be caveated that it's a simple calc on data by announced day, and actual % of positive cases per sample day is essentially impossible to calculate given the data we have on tests. So it's not really possible to make any more statistical inference than - it looks OK at the moment.... ;--). Probably.

Hospital admissions on a 7 day average trickle slowly down, a slight bump in announced numbers on the 2nd but data on that isn't updated by trust every day consistently so you really do need to take an average on that.

Total in hospital continues down.

Thanks for new thread. Cases do seem to be rising slowly but agree increased testing probably also has a effect on this.

However the increase isn't drastic. 100 or so average over week. To 700 more total each week.

Anyone have the stats about how fast cases increased at the beginning or is that not even likely to be able to be recorded because testing was so poor?

It may also show just how many non symptomatic cases there are or cases where people just have very mild symptoms that usually they wouldn't even take a paracetamol for!

In reality, there's not really much point comparing known cases from the early days as the testing regime was completely different, and completely focused on healthcare settings for weeks. The attached shows the growth just in Pillar 1, for example.

Thanks. I'm trying to remain optimistic, and that helps.

If there are more tests, has the % positive stayed the same, or risen ?

1.3% for Scotland today 🥴

(Thanks for another thread)

Can anyone tell me how many people in the community have tested positive currently for covid on average? e.g. 1 in 300 for example?

My union has posted this on Fb:

"Private track and trace isn't working at all – it's a mess. But the contracts with Serco and Sitel end on 23 August... ⌛️

This is a chance for change. If you're in England, please tell your council leader you want local public health teams to be given the resources to run safe, locally-led test & trace.

weownit.org.uk/tell-your-council-leader-you-want-safe-locally-led-test-and-trace"

Worth doing! Am amazed the current companies only hold the contract until 23 August though, it must have only been about 3 months?

Thanks for this

The 7 day average (in England) based on specimen date.

We can see the impact of the quite significant upsurge in cases last week - particularly the 954 (declared so far, may be a couple of dozen more to be added) on 29th July, which is well above anything seen recently.

Again 19 / 149 UTLAs accounted for 50% of cases on the 29th, and as indicated up (new) thread - thanks Bigchoc - most likely the result of further increases in testing.

The big black vertical line flags that whilst the average is falling back a bit, the more cases will be added for the most recent few days. So the downward curve on the seven day average unlikely to continue.

@raviolidreaming

If there are more tests, has the % positive stayed the same, or risen ?

1.3% for Scotland today 🥴

(Thanks for another thread)

That % for Scotland is not like for like with the UK or England %.

That is the % of People Tested who were positive - not tests.

We don't have the number of People for England unfortunately.

The number of Tests in Scotland is significantly above number of People - data from here

www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/

suggests 23k people tested in last 7 days versus 76k tests! Or 4,783 people yesterday vs 11,780 tests. Which seems a huge difference.

If we take positives/tests, which we have to do in England, we get a comparable % of 0.54% for today, and a 7 day average of 0.26%. Against a UK % of 0.61% for the last 7 days.

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy