Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

certain amount of journalistic licence in that article, although I'd agree is not all doom and gloom.

Article in the Sunday Times last Sunday, from which, following the journalistic lead, I shall selectively quote from, although refrain from the application of unintended irony

55.4% of all contacts in non-complex cases identified by the test and trace programme and 52.4% living at the same address as the infected patient were reached. 98.3% reached in complex cases.

Out of 184,703 contacts traced so far, only 23.8% of those were by Serco and Sitel....meaning their 18,500 call handlers have traced about two contacts each. The remaining 140,660 were traced by 975 staff in PH teams, equivalent to about 144 each.

Director of Clinical Operational Support Unit at UCL said that whilst she expected complex cases to be easier to trace.....that did not explain the disparity between 98% and 55%

and in terms of Epidemiologists here's where I'd see myself

[quote JulyBreeze]@PatriciaHolm I was using the term as a very broad collective phrase![/quote]
....
We are the stats geeks of MN

We love data:
good / bad / indifferent
whatever, but give us facts

(and informed analysis is always tasty too)

btw, for those concerned interested about ft school return in September:

I'mm keeping my beady stats geek eye on the German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where schools returned Monday
(the 16 German states have always had staggered school holidays, with returns from early August - early Sept)

It's a sparsely populated state in NE Germany and had comparatively few infections and deaths
Population only1.6 million, 890 cases and 20 deaths,
with current 7-day incidence = 2.3 cases /100,000 , compared to 5.6/100,000 for Germany as a whole

Only 150,000 pupils, 563 schools and 13,000 teachers - 400 of whom are working from home as they are vulnerable
Extra govt money given to schools
Efficient test, track & trace as in the rest of Germany

If ft works anywhere, it should work well in that little state
If there are problems .....

Does anybody know why the Telegraph have announced 154 deaths on 5th August and Worldometers 65. It's the first time I have seen such a difference.

@BigChocFrenzy wrt watching the outcome of schools opening it may be worth keeping a close eye on Leicester as our schools go back on 26 August so two weeks earlier than most of England, and of course our infection rate is not great.

Interestingly my DC's school (leicestershire) is taking 2 weeks for teacher training so young people are not going back until 7 September, 2 weeks later than originally planned.

Thanks for the new thread.

Just a note though re Scottish schools, a great many are having a very staggered start. Some children only in one day the first week. So not all kids will be in till their second week, (or even later) a week before ours start.

And actually, my son's local Ed authority isn't returning till the 15th sept this year as they got an extra week (happens every 7 years.)

With any other staggering in other places we will only be able to do proper analysis here towards the start of October.

Can I just say thanks to all you knowledgeable people who contribute to this thread ? It makes it much more meaningful to me.
Here in Scotland DGS14 is having a part day in school next Thursday ( 13th) then FT from 17th . DD ‘s teacher friend is apprehensive but hopefully it will be ok .

@BigChocFrenzy interesting in the German example that 400 staff are working from home. The difference in England is that all shielding staff are expected to be in school. I am on the shielded list yet expected in September to be in a year group of 150-200 bubble in a Secondary School as the school’s risk assessment states all areas are low risk for shielded staff to do so as it is Covid secure. If there were vulnerable staff in school in Germany would be interesting to see case numbers there. In the UK I am concerned that people told by the Government not to leave their houses or gardens until 1/8 Might change the stats more if they catch it!

What's the definition of vulnerable there BigChoc?

I'm only CV, with quite severe asthma but not shielded.

I'm only feeling fairly confident going back as the wider area where I am is so very low. I'm with Sen pupils though smaller groups means a bit more control. Although I teach several different bubbles and my room can be and is regularly accessed by many.

I do feel for shielded staff going back.

@JulyBreeze

Upbeat but realistic (I think?) article from the Beeb:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852

Useful graphs. Discusses how more testing means more infections found, t&t helping even if not brilliant, local lockdowns show system is working.

Do the Epidemiologists of Mumsnet agree??

I think the key thing is why we are doing increased testing. Testing isn't blind (or independent, if you want to use probability language) - it is still mainly based on people who are symptomatic. So if more people are reporting that they have symptoms, and thus being tested, then it is likely that cases are actually rising.

This compares with the ONS survey which is a random sample of people, and does appear to be showing a bit of an increase. There is a wide margin of error, and it would be good if the ONS survey was on more people (it's already quite a big job doing about 30k), but it's something like a 95% chance that there is an increase in cases.

I'm a bit unsure of Carl Heneghan (the guy quoted in the article) at the moment. I think he has good things to say in some respects, and I think it is right that we follow the evidence as best we can, and adjust our response to new findings. I fully agree with him about some of the things he says about the response in care homes for instance. But I find his arguments against mask wearing to be pretty weak, and his argument about case numbers is overly simplistic.

@whatsthecomingoverthehill - in the higher infection areas, or where there is a cluster, they are offering tests to asymptomatic people too. It's actually that they're trying to reduce spread of the disease.

@whatsthecomingoverthehill in the troublesome areas (such as Luton) they are offering testing to all and actively encouraging it for a really wide area, far wider than the area of concern which is picking up all the asymptomatic cases.

I realise that, which is why I said it is mainly people who are symptomatic. That was my understanding at least. If we has a breakdown of who many tests are indiscriminate vs tests on those with symptoms then we would perhaps be able to clarify a bit better, but the test numbers are not split down to LA.

I am mainly going by the ONS survey. I know there is a wide margin of error, but it looks like there is a high probability that cases are increasing.

In Leicester they were definitely testing streets of asymptomatic people. My Dad lives there and an army of volunteers delivered tests to his entire street and collected them later.

As an aside my Dad struggled to know what to do with the test. In the end he asked a neighbour for help. Apparently there were detailed instructions within the packaging, but he wasn't able to find them. He also somehow missed the bit about the volunteers returning later to collect the tests.

To be fair I'm not sure that necessarily means that the instructions weren't clear as he is elderly and not great at following directions or using common sense.

He was delighted to get a negative test, however trying to explain that only means he was negative at that actual time is a work in progress.

Interestingly, the Covid Zoe app is now showing a slight decrease over the last few days overall, having been on a slow upward trend for about a fortnight.

... and yes, test numbers per LA would be really really helpful right now!

@PatriciaHolm

Interestingly, the Covid Zoe app is now showing a slight decrease over the last few days overall, having been on a slow upward trend for about a fortnight.

That is good news.

I haven't looked into the Zoe data too much, so I'm not sure how it corresponds with other data.

CovidZoe used to be similar to ONS, then it tracked higher than ONS but they realised they were adding in antibody tests (whoops), since then they have generally been similar again.

Looking at the data for Manchester and the surrounding areas, it looks like numbers have stabilised or are decreasing (even taking the lag into account).

I’m in GM in one of the hotspots. I ended up getting ds tested yesterday. As it would turn out there is a pop up test centre just a mile away (next nearest is 10 miles away) with many slots available. Great. However I only found out about this by going on the website - I was expecting to have to go to the further one. Why this has not been better publicised I don’t know. The council’s social media feed seems pretty concerned yet no mention. Odd.

@whatsthecomingoverthehill
Yes I agree, slight increase overall since last week but decreases in several areas. Am hopeful in another week things will be on a downward trend.

@Frazzled2207 - can you message the council about it? They should be told if they are missing out useful info.

Yes I think test numbers in la would be interesting.

My town has had 2 cases in 18 days.

If that's out of 5 tests it does then raise questions about if virus is about and people aren't asking for tests or if there genuinely isn't much community transmission and those who may have caught it elsewhere are isolating effectively.
If there's been 100's of tests because people have cough or temp then I think it gives clearer picture it's nit really circulating currently.

My local hospital had no covid deaths for a month though and that was in the news a few weeks ago. So it does match the cases being low and declining the last month or so.