Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@MRex
Yes will do. Seems bizarre that they haven’t mentioned- presumably they know it’s there!

Does anyone know why nothing is being done about Birmingham? From my observations numbers have been on the high side (and def higher than national average!) for weeks.... yes last few days are lower but I suspect it's just delayed reporting.

It will be interesting to see the impact of schools opening in Aberdeen. Schools are back next week for part of the week, then full time thereafter.

I think there will be a lot of cases coming from NHS Grampian over the next week, as everyone here seems to know someone who was at one of the affected bars at the weekend. I am glad they have locked down, it could get out of hand quite quickly.

Pity the schools don't have an extra few weeks off.

I've just realised you can back calc some local testing data from the PHE table. I need to do more analysis but a quick data estimate suggests the counties in the table are accounting for twice the % of testing vs their % of England's population....

Birmingham had a big factory outbreak, it might be just because they know the source for most infections, so believe it'll die down.

@MRex oh really? I hadn't heard that. They are certainly taking a long time getting control of it!

I'm wrong, it was 2 weeks ago, but cases go back further. Maybe multiple outbreaks, but in each case they know about them?

They've never had low numbers there... even before the current uptick

@MRex
Just been past and it’s not even there today! Possibly moving around the borough. Still interesting that it’s not been better publicised.
One reason might be that they don’t want people getting tested without symptoms who then think they can flout the rules if they test negative.

They do have mobile testing units for checking various places, you'd expect the council to say where they are on any given day though!

(I just checked and my council are still advertising the mobile one they had months ago, presumably none since. No more use to anyone wanting a test now than your council.)

Re Birmingham - the data posted shows only 13 cases per 100k - the areas under mitigation all have over 20 I believe.

My town, of approximately 100k people, has reported 14 cases in the last seven days. Up from 1, 2 or 3 during July. As far as I'm aware there is no out of the ordinary testing here.

I (obviously!) hope the more optimistic amongst us are right and the upwards creep can be explained away but I am nervous.

It would be useful if the surveillance report showed outbreaks by region - number of new outbreaks, number of outbreaks still in progress, type and number of linked cases. Just to help clarify where there is community spread.

Latest data from track and trace is out weekly-nhs-test-and-trace-bulletin-england-23-to-29-July-2020-accessible.pdf

It's not good news. 17% increase in people testing positive and only 4% increase in people tested. And still falling rates of success in contacting people.

@PrayingandHoping

Does anyone know why nothing is being done about Birmingham? From my observations numbers have been on the high side (and def higher than national average!) for weeks.... yes last few days are lower but I suspect it's just delayed reporting.

@PrayingandHoping Birmingham certainly up a bit , 13 cases per 100,000 in w/e 2nd Aug (from the dashboard detailed case download info).

The cases per 100,000 for England in that week (as declared so far) was 8.4 so Brum indeed above that, but as others have said still well below most of the watch list LAs.

The median for English UTLAs was 5.0 per 100,000 that week. However the median is not the average.

Brum cases look pretty steady over the past few weeks - although I'd agree a downward shift would be welcome.

The absolute number for Birmingham (13 cases per 100,000 people) is actually not that high. Yes, it is higher than the national average and the numbers have gone up but the historic point of comparison (infection rates in early July) was very low.

Also, the weekly PHE map seems to indicate that quite a few of Birmingham cases are concentrated around Smethwick/West Bromwich. Looks like they may relate to a specific outbreak that is hopefully being handled:

phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

To me the fact it's gone up and stayed there shows something needs to change. 20 odd cases a day to me is a lot (comparing to what Luton was getting and action was taken). And that's only those presenting obv.

But I have family in that area, including a niece about to start school and a newborn baby. All other family in areas of nearly no cases so it's a personal perspective that I think they need to do better than they are.

Well saying it's not a high high number is one thing but it's more than twice the national average.... so......

Zoe Covid estimate of daily transmissions has gone down to 1,626 cases. It is still within the same statistical interval (+/- 2,000 cases) but I will take it even if the drop is only optical.

[quote wintertravel1980]The absolute number for Birmingham (13 cases per 100,000 people) is actually not that high. Yes, it is higher than the national average and the numbers have gone up but the historic point of comparison (infection rates in early July) was very low.

Also, the weekly PHE map seems to indicate that quite a few of Birmingham cases are concentrated around Smethwick/West Bromwich. Looks like they may relate to a specific outbreak that is hopefully being handled:

phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076[/quote]
@wintertravel1980 to be fair to Brum though neither Smethwick or West Bromwich fall within the Birmingham LA boundaries, both being in Sandwell which has rates higher than Brum.

@Firefliess

Latest data from track and trace is out weekly-nhs-test-and-trace-bulletin-england-23-to-29-July-2020-accessible.pdf

It's not good news. 17% increase in people testing positive and only 4% increase in people tested. And still falling rates of success in contacting people.

Annex A table 1 with the numbers - percentages add by me (as P1 and P2 quite different)

Yes, thanks for the correction, boys3. My mistake.

It's far from a uniform problem across the country. There are local authorities like Bournemouth - where the crowds on the beaches havent infected the locals to any significant extent coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bournemouth,%20Christchurch%20and%20Poole

and then you have Coventry, where cases have risen recently. That may be due to supermarket staff www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/number-tesco-staff-coventry-who-18722539

It's still taking far too long to sort out some of the problem areas - like Hackney coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Hackney%20and%20City%20of%20London

For another positive note - Gloucester is still doing well coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Gloucester

I think the thing with Bournemouth is that we know transmission outdoors is lower and UV light is helpful.
Despite the photos people are actually SD on beach, mostly within own set ups of windbreaks etc, people are purely passing even though streets are crowded etc.

But we also know the people are coming from all over including west mids, Birmingham and London. Therefore any transmission may not always register as Bournemouth cases if people travel back with it as positives are registered to where you live.

I also know people people who are lucky enough to live in Bournemouth are sadly not enjoying the beach etc on these heatwave days because they don't want the risk. So I doubt transmission from elsewhere is becoming community transmission within iyswim?

The biggest problem with the Bournemouth beach was all the litter left by the day trippers/tourists. That was unacceptable.

However all the research and available data so far suggest that the risk of outdoor transmission with people staying in small groups and quietly interacting with their own household members is very, very low. British press and social media activists seem to love "beach / park shaming" but it only dilutes the message and distract from real risks (e.g. large gatherings across multiple households).