Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Cloudburstagain are u in England?

Most churches round here were back immediately. Ours is def slow (because they are spending ages making it right and being way more cautious than the gov guidelines even state u have to be)

The real risk is not beaches and parks but large family gatherings. Saw it in Leicester myself back in April/May life carried on, lots of people trying to book events and Eid parties claiming private events were fine (I didn't take the bookings). That said hospital admissions are low, nothing like March.

@Cloudburstagain

So if you can share what you discover in that German example *@BigChocFrenzy* I would be most appreciative. Currently I do not intend getting signed off sick but if it is not safe I may need to be off due to my condition.

.... Now I know you are interested, I'll certainly post within a couple of weeks about case numbers

However, they have already decided to take precautions for the most vulnerable 3% of their teachers and let them WFH
and the v low case rate for the state would likely be lower than for your county.
The efficient t,t&t also reduces risk to the vulnerable

We've had several outbreaks around churches in Germany and I think most have returned to online services again
It's really odd that it's churches and not gyms that have been a problem !

Large family parties and block parties too

@BigChocFrenzy

We've had several outbreaks around churches in Germany and I think most have returned to online services again It's really odd that it's churches and not gyms that have been a problem !

Perhaps something to do with building style? Churches tend to be quite cold and damp with limited circulation!

@BigChocFrenzy I think they went back quite quickly over there?

It's going to be v strange when we do go back. In and out, one way system, invitation only (on rotation if more people want to come than can), no socialising. It's being taken v seriously (I have some local level involvement).

We will also be keeping online which we have done since start lockdown

Having just completed the analysis I started earlier of the local areas on the PHE surveillance table -

• 23 of the 27 areas are doing more testing than average in England
• overall 17.5% of testing (by person) that week took place in areas that account for 11.7% of England's population.

Which supports the hypothesis that there is more testing going on in these areas, but tbh perhaps not as focused as it might be. It will be interesting to do the same analysis on the data tomorrow, because of course this data is from specimens 18-24 July and testing may have been even more focused over the following week.

I think it might be singing in churches

I wonder if it's just easier to identify outbreaks in churches than in gyms. People attending church tend to know one another, so it'll soon get round if someone has the virus. I don't know anyone at my gym and wouldn't know if they were ill. Plus a lot of older people go to church who are likely a) to be ill enough to notice and b) not to have had a lot of other contact, so it's easy to identify that the church is where they caught it. Trains are even harder to identify outbreaks on - no means of anyone contacting so the people on a specific carriage of a specific train.

@QuentinWinters no singing allowed!

I can't remember off top of my head if that was a government guideline (I'm pretty sure it was) or one from our church itself

This sounds like very good news. Councils getting to take over contact tracing (or at least do their own) www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/06/councils-in-england-to-be-offered-near-real-time-data-on-covid-cases

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/06/councils-in-england-to-be-offered-near-real-time-data-on-covid-cases Excellent news!

Damn you, Firefliess! *shakes fist"

@QuentinWinters yep it's from government...
No group singing

@Firefliess

I wonder if it's just easier to identify outbreaks in churches than in gyms. People attending church tend to know one another, so it'll soon get round if someone has the virus. I don't know anyone at my gym and wouldn't know if they were ill. Plus a lot of older people go to church who are likely a) to be ill enough to notice and b) not to have had a lot of other contact, so it's easy to identify that the church is where they caught it. Trains are even harder to identify outbreaks on - no means of anyone contacting so the people on a specific carriage of a specific train.

Good point, especially with no APP to trace. However a good contact tracer should be able to pinpoint common factors - and more than 3 cases who all went to the same place would be classed as a cluster.

[quote Firefliess]This sounds like very good news. Councils getting to take over contact tracing (or at least do their own) www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/06/councils-in-england-to-be-offered-near-real-time-data-on-covid-cases[/quote]
Hooray! Will they get given the funds that were paid to the private companies too?

@PrayingandHoping BCF is in germany and was saying corona is spreading in churches...

Yep I know.... was just replying to your comment about whether it was singing in churches which was causing the issues

@PrayingandHoping yes in England. However, I have family in Wales and Scotland whoShe churches are currently closed too.

@Cloudburstagain I'm surprised u haven't seen them open around u in England, they are all back around us (except ours! Lol)

Not sure about rules in wales and Scotland

Really - definitely none of the 5 nearest to us or any in the next village!

Lots of churches aren't open yet because of a combination of:
They don't have the capacity to do all the cleaning required to the standard required
They're being cautious and inclusive to vulnerable congregation members
Their congregation may be so elderly that it would be foolhardy to recommence public worship
They meet in buildings which cannot yet accommodate the church (some schools/ halls etc)

@IceCreamSummer20 I posted a petition yesterday for T&T contract (which apparently is due for renewal in August!) to go to local authorities. Am now wondering whether they're just going to shift it over quietly anyway, going on that article.

@JulyBreeze must be gun ho here then. 3 are open just in our village!!!

But yes all those considerations are why we haven't gone back yet. It is a long process to work through and should be done carefully