Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@littleowl1 could you link to FB please. And thank you x

I have signed up @littleowl1 - thanks! ☺️

The South west having early outbreaks in care homes was not a surprise and not evidence of uniform timing across the country. I have stared at the graph of care home outbreaks and looking pretty much like community transmission to me, dont see evidence there for the outbreaks coming from hospitals - is the raw data available still somewhere?

The SAGE report says "The means of introduction of new disease cases to care homes is multiple: linked to the connection between care homes and hospitals, and the connection between staff and
community (medium confidence). We cannot say which is more influential at this stage.
• We expect (high confidence low evidence) that hospital discharges and visits may have been an important source of introduction of C-19 infection to care homes

I have an aversion to statements made with high confidence but low evidence. People who make such statements may start with an assumption and look for data to fit.

[quote AnyFucker]@littleowl1 could you link to FB please. And thank you x[/quote]
I just typed in www.covidmessenger.com and fb found a link x

@Piggywaspushed

That is one epic outbreak in Northampton.

It does sound as if Greencore has been very proactive and instigated testing due to increase in cases locally.

Hopefully that will make it easier to contain. We had a big outbreak locally here, but it was easy to contain as People lived onsite. I'm just not convinced that anything other than local lockdown will work here.

Yes. I think they do live in family groups but not all (or even any) on site, so that could be problematic. Whole families work at the site.

Although the local church closed for deep cleaning I don't think any outbreak was connected to the church although a local surgery and other schools closed. I don't know if anyone at the surgery was confirmed with covid, if it was a GP or nurse I imagine they would be more likely route into care homes.

I also live in the SW and followed this closely at the time. The child who returned from the Italian ski trip also infected another relative in his household (either that or the relative was also on the trip - I don't know) That relative (who I think was his mother) worked at a GP's surgery in Torquay. She / they infected two other member s of staff at the practice who tested positive. The practice was shut swiftly after, but obviously at least 3 staff members were carriers by then. I don't know what their roles were within the surgery.

The church closed after one parishioner tested positive but I don't know if there is a link - most probably as it was in the same very small village as the school (could be that the person at the church and one of the people positive at the surgery were one and the same)

www.devonlive.com/news/devon-church-closed-sunday-worshipper-3920115
www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/three-health-service-workers-test-3927415

Yeah thatsnthe worry. Swindon had a much smaller outbreak at Iceland warehouse lately and cases are on the rise there now.

This is massive so I can really see it increase. A 2/3 week lockdown would surely slow the transmission quite significantly.

Oh dear. Northampton Town Centre on the news. Full of pissed up 18 year olds celebrating A Level results. That'll go well...

@Piggywaspushed

Oh dear. Northampton Town Centre on the news. Full of pissed up 18 year olds celebrating A Level results. That'll go well...

good to know though that A level results worked out well somewhere at least.

Northampton has had relatively high (as compared to large chunks of England) for quite a while. Whilst Glencore acting quickly on testing, the already fairly high base in the town is not the best starting point.

We've through this thread quickly, so:

NEW thread:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3994890-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-15?watched=1

@Nquartz thank you so much. That’s fab!

They may well be drowning their sorrows I guess boys !

@AnyFucker of course. The Facebook page is www.facebook.com/covid.messenger.1

@Pebble21ukb The church closed after one parishioner tested positive but I don't know if there is a link - most probably as it was in the same very small village as the school (could be that the person at the church and one of the people positive at the surgery were one and the same)

I thought it could be the same person, it was all a bit coy but reading between the lines it did sound like a parent had it from the same trip and worked at the surgery but I don't think anyone actually said that. From memory I think the school does have services at that church from time to time so the person from the church could even be the child from the school.

The school serves quite a big area, grammar school with children from all over the Bay plus many travelling in from places like Dartmouth, Totnes and beyond, so if it had spread in the school it could have seeded quite a big area.

I don't understand about Northampton. I use this gov site to look at figures coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Northampton and it is showing zero new cases for the 11th and 12th, 13th not showing yet. Do you think they really had two days with no new cases or are they not updating it?

@alreadytaken The South west having early outbreaks in care homes was not a surprise and not evidence of uniform timing across the country. I have stared at the graph of care home outbreaks and looking pretty much like community transmission to me, dont see evidence there for the outbreaks coming from hospitals - is the raw data available still somewhere? Local information is that in the early days of the outbreak (March and 2 weeks in April) 150 untested people were discharged from hospitals into care homes in Torbay, another 250 odd were tested and discharged, some were positive. I'll try and find a link.

www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/what-happened-care-homes-start-4291781

They say the chances it introduced covid to homes is low as only a handful of the tested were positive but I think we'd need to know which homes they were discharged to and which homes had outbreaks and I don't think that information is available. Obviously the 150 untested could have had several positive cases or none but we will never know now.

My elderly relative, very frail nearly 90 with advanced dementia, was positive but was only tested as the whole home was, her only symptom was itchy eyes but that wasn't recognised as a symptom at the time, the home were confident she didn't have it and it was only a precaution to test her.

You'd also need to know that the hospitals they came from had covid transmission to verify that.

@ancientgran - tests often run a few days late getting into the system.

@ancientgran you need to come across to the new thread and read the full text of the misrepresented report on London care homes. Transmission between staff is a problem.

@alreadytaken at my home all the staff tested negative. At my relatives home all the staff moved in when visits from family/friends stopped, this was about 2 weeks before lockdown.

Not all homes are the same, with my relatives home it is pretty obvious that the man who was discharged from hospital with covid was the source for the other residents.

I imagine London, and other big cities, are very different to most of the South West. In the homes I know, including the one I work in, the staff turnover is very low and they don't use agency staff. I think that is reflected in the rates.

@MRex well if some of the discharged people had covid it was obviously in the hospital they were discharged from. I imagine in Torbay it would be mainly from Torbay Hospital, I don't think they would be clearing Brixham for covid patients and Paignton is just a well being centre now. They might come from further away, Dartmouth/Totnes or somewhere but I would have thought they'd be more local. I think it would be more likely that Torbay would be releasing to other towns than other towns releasing to Torbay but I suppose it would be interesting to know. I'm not sure how often Torbay residents would go to city hospitals, like Derriford or RD&E.

It will be interesting when this is studied when it is all over.

Actually I think Dartmouth like Paignton lost it's hospital and has a well being centre. Not quite sure what a well being centre is.

It is not the case that everyone in every hospital caught covid while in hospital, and even where there have been outbreaks not all hospitals had outbreaks infecting patients in March. Was there actually an outbreak in Torbay hospital? I can't find any info on it.

MRex I'm not sure what you mean about an outbreak at Torbay hospital. There were definitely patients with covid but how are you defining outbreak? Do you mean it was 100% certain people caught it there, I'm not sure if that information is available anywhere.

Of course not everyone in every hospital caught covid while in hospital. Three of my kids/kids partners work in hospitals, mix of nurses and doctor, one on a covid ward and none of them caught it. The thing I find very often is the insistence that moving people with covid or untested for covid into homes couldn't possibly be a problem. The doctor in the family agrees and was distressed by witnessing untested people who they felt clearly had covid being sent into homes.

The rubbish like the protective ring round homes, which no one I know witnessed, or the denial that there was any awareness of possible asymptomatic transmission is frankly insulting. In fact most people I know who work in care feel overlooked, neglected and scapegoated.

@ancientgran - if the doctor on the ward said the man had covid, then he did. Sorry, that wasn't information I could see anywhere.