Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Exactly. The litter was a disgrace. So was the parking when it blocked people in their houses or blocked roads.

But dislike huge numbers it wasn't what it was made out to be.

I live near a beach down the coast from Bournemouth. Our beach gets busy with locals on very hot days. Very tidal which does affect where people are. But it's just people within family groups, SD queues if you fancy and ice cream or fish and chips! Everyone respects the rules and does their best. Everyone even queues for the loo respectfully leaving room for people to come out

The only lack of distancing is generally kids who play together in shallows but even they generally keep 1m and know the rules iyswim?

People may well carry it home with them - but in at least one other place it looks like there has been spread to the locals. Great Yarmouth was doing really well but has had a few cases recently coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Great%20Yarmouth

[quote Cloudburstagain]**@BigChocFrenzy interesting in the German example that 400 staff are working from home. The difference in England is that all shielding staff are expected to be in school. I am on the shielded list yet expected in September to be in a year group of 150-200 bubble in a Secondary School as the school’s risk assessment states all areas are low risk for shielded staff to do so as it is Covid secure. If there were vulnerable staff in school in Germany would be interesting to see case numbers there. In the UK I am concerned that people told by the Government not to leave their houses or gardens until 1/8 Might change the stats more if they catch it![/quote]
.....
It is shocking if schools in the UK really won't let the most vulnerable teachers stay home
Surely they plan to let some ?

"Would be interesting to see case numbers there"

It is about the most sparsely populated state in Germany - and population density really matters -
so the 7-day incidence is only 2.1 / 100,000 population (not / tests !)
compared to 5.5 / 100,000 for germany as a whole

So there is a safety margin if case numbers increase
and the sparse population slows down community spread

The Guardian are reporting nowcasting and forecasting by the Cambridge biostats unit. Their modelling show cases creeping up a little. www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

Our current estimate of the number of infections arising each day across England is 3,200 (1,700–5,800, 95% credible interval)

A week ago the number of infections daily was 3,000 (1,600–5,520, 95% credible interval)

@NeurotrashWarrior

What's the definition of vulnerable there BigChoc?

I'm only CV, with quite severe asthma but not shielded.

I'm only feeling fairly confident going back as the wider area where I am is so very low. I'm with Sen pupils though smaller groups means a bit more control. Although I teach several different bubbles and my room can be and is regularly accessed by many.

I do feel for shielded staff going back.

.... "What's the definition of vulnerable there BigChoc?"

I expect those teachers WFH are the equivalent of "shielded" in the UK.

400 out of 13,000 is only just over 3%, so can only be the most vulnerable
i.e. not just those with asthma, T2 or high BMI - there are quite a lot of large people here !

Quite probably those 400 are heavily weighted to the oldest teachers, because right from March,
the authorities here were warning that over-60s should take extra care, rather than mentioning specific health conditions.
They twigged early on how absolutely dominant age is

Businesses here have been enhancing their early retirement schemes, reducing the age to 60 or lower

There was already a popular system called "Altersteilzeit" where the state heavily subsidises employees for up to the last 6 years before their state retirement age,
so employees only actually work the first half of that period and the 2nd half they stay home, basically retired,
on nearly the same net pay for the whole period

Does Angela want to have a chat with Boris and show him how it's done?!

The German national and regional governments has worked closely all along with school heads and the teachers' union,
so the most vulnerable teachers - and students - were never going to be abandoned.

All staff & pupils can optionally wear masks

• I think they're only compulsory in 2ndary school for corridors & other tight spots

I agree that people should be allowed to assess what level of risk they are happy with, when it comes to classrooms, unless of course cases rise enough to require tighter rules.

I still find it hard to believe that teachers who have been told to shield right up until 1 August are supposed to into school only a month later,
most without even the option of masks

It seems very harsh
Maybe there'll be a late U-turn ?

in UK, I mean

The DHSS has just tweeted that data on deaths has been suspended whilst an urgent review takes place ........

But the dashboard is showing 49 deaths
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Wow, drama for numerophiles (don't know proper term)!

950 cases but a very high number of Pillar 2 tests done. 78k, 84k and 93k over the last 3 days.

The notes for today say something about 26,000 (approx) added to the Pillar 2 data?

@whatsnext2

The DHSS has just tweeted that data on deaths has been suspended whilst an urgent review takes place ........

.... Long past time I hope they've been working all along on updating to the global standard calculation method and looking at deaths > 28 days to check it's really COVID

@whatsnext2

The DHSS has just tweeted that data on deaths has been suspended whilst an urgent review takes place ........

I think that's just the same "urgent" review that Hancock requested 3 weeks ago wrt phe recording anyone with a positive test as a covid death even if the test was 8 weeks ago and their death was unconnected. Since then the dhsc have stopped publishing the deaths on one website but you can still find it on another. There are rumours though that the review might read out by the end of this week.

Masks for teachers is an interesting one, my understanding was that basic cloth or surgical masks were mainly there to protect others but offered limited protection to the wearers (although I've heard there is starting to be some evidence to suggest the wearer gets some benefit). So to protect vulnerable teachers you either need to give them proper face fitted rpe or make the kids wear masks. The former won't be cheap (disposal ffp3 masks are truly once wear and wearer need a face fit with a trained fitter), not that this should be an excuse but it will be. The latter is simpler on paper but relies on kids wearing masks and changing masks properly.

It is shocking if schools in the UK really won't let the most vulnerable teachers stay home
Surely they plan to let some ?

Nope .Only school staff who can WFH should be considered for this. The specific example id the much lower risk anyway of 'certain admin and office staff'

Lady I know has been shielding until Saturday.... back in the class room on 30+ teenagers at start September!!

That is same as me PrayingandHoping

Ditto here, PrayingandHoping.

@BigChocFrenzy I doubt a late U turn, when my own school’s risk assessment says it is low risk!! Not even medium risk - which just shows what management think of it. It will need a Government return to shielding for ECv staff to be at home. For ECV staff to not be in school ( they could do all planning and marking and even do lessons on Teams etc live) it increases cost to have other people with the students,

So spending money on unusable PPE, or on a Track and Trace system that apprear to be better using what we had and expand it rather than on expensive private companies is acceptable but not on schools it seems.

Problem is that if there is a late U-turn, it is yet another issue for heads to deal with - late notice supply to cover the classes of shielding teachers.

So if you can share what you discover in that German example @BigChocFrenzy I would be most appreciative. Currently I do not intend getting signed off sick but if it is not safe I may need to be off due to my condition.

@Cloudburstagain I'm amazed their risk assessment has u down as low risk!

The church I attend is working out it's go back to church strategy and shielding people are clearly classed as high risk on the risk assessment

@cathyandclare

950 cases but a very high number of Pillar 2 tests done. 78k, 84k and 93k over the last 3 days.

Yep -7 day positivity rate has been pretty much the same for the last 9 days.

I am not in agreement but they seem to know best!

Churches here are still closed apart from Weddings and Funerals. Which I am pleased about as it means everyone is currently being treated the same.