Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

I think the North West 'Patients in Hospital' number for yesterday must have been an error, as it's now back down to 227 (226 on 21st, 370 on 22nd).

BigchocFrenzy - the trouble with raising taxes is that it will be our children feeling the full force of this to pay for those who haven’t had to contribute.

Is it fair for a worker to pay more tax to pay for someone to be ina care home for years, allowing that elderly person to conserve their savings to pass onto their children? That’s one surefire way to ensure an even bigger economic divide.

The arcgis report is now showing very clearly where the Blackburn out break is currently centred. The mosque where 250 people attended a funeral is in this area.

769 is a bit of a jump up! Is that mostly due to one particular outbreak do we know?

@sleepwhenidie

769 is a bit of a jump up! Is that mostly due to one particular outbreak do we know?

Unfortunately it does look like cases are beginning to rise a little bit doesn't it? I'm hoping that school holidays and mandatory mask wearing help to stabilise or bring them down a bit more.

769 is a bit of a jump up! Is that mostly due to one particular outbreak do we know?

It's quite a jump up. I am not aware of any outbreak that would explain the increase from yesterday but numbers have always been a bit up and down. Hopefully just a blib but I do worry too.

Does anyone know if a similar interactive map (like the arcgis) for France? Or even where I can find a daily set of numbers for each department...
Many thanks

I have a family member who works for track and trace. They think that the slight uptick is due to the fact they are testing lots around hot spots means they are picking up lots of asymptomatic people. Lots of the people they are in contact with who test positive have no symptoms.

After a couple of days of low antibody testing numbers are back up - are positive for antibodies counted as positive cases?

The NHS is increasing testing of people coming into hospital and there is increased testing around outbreaks. At one stage about 25% of positive cases were in just 5 local authorities - dont know the current figures but until we can see the breakdown by local authority I wouldnt worry too much. You get small outbreaks like Hackney and Braintree (that was a care home, what was Hackney?) but there have been fewer of them recently. This is probably more testing in a few areas.

I also think that an increase in reported cases might be an indication that the track and trace system is actually working.

A week - 10 days ago there was a small spike of cases in Tower Hamlets. The numbers stayed at around 5-10 for a few days (which appears high for a London borough) and then went back down. Optically, it looked like an outbreak followed by expanded testing.

Now there are similar pattens happening in other areas. If cases end up going down in a few days, it might indeed be due to T&T.

They are testing an area of Luton. The numbers were ticking up last week and they have been in the top 20 area of higher cases for weeks. They published the postcodes 2 days ago and invited an area for testing.

I'm sure it's prob happening in areas all over the country that have similar now they are managing to break things down to postcode

In the East there are concerns also about Peterborough, Kettering and Northampton. Bedford seems to have calmed down a bit.

Also, any uptick in cases is more questionable if you look at cases by specimen date rather than reporting date (available for Nations rather than total). Based on the data on the U.K. gov Beta site and looking at England only, 7 day average new cases to 13/7 was 550, to 20/7 was 546. So pretty much flat, even with potentially higher numbers being tested as noted above.

Article from sky about Luton and Blackburn. I note it says that councils in Luton have been encouraging anyone to go for a test even if they don’t have symptoms. I’m sure that’s the same in Leicester and presumably Blackburn so from that perspective it’s not surprising that cases are going up - presumably this is the time that we will begin to see far more of the asymptomatic or very mild cases being picked up.

Forgot the link
news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-luton-and-blackburn-now-areas-of-intervention-due-to-covid-19-spikes-12034861

I've never heard of Colwall, Cradley & Wellington Heath (in Herefordshire, I think) but they appear to have 42 cases this week!

Isn't that the fruit and veg farm?

@IrenetheQuaint

I've never heard of Colwall, Cradley & Wellington Heath (in Herefordshire, I think) but they appear to have 42 cases this week!

Isn't that where the meat packing factory which has an outbreak is?

Yes it's the farm

Coronavirus: Cases at virus-hit Mathon farm hit 120 www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-53480131

Thanks for the explaination winter.

Yes Luton have invited anyone in these postcodes to be tested. (It is essentially one long road)

Gosh, according worldometer Spain has recorded 2615 new cases today!! That’s nearly twice what it was yesterday

And here is some info on Hackney although the article does not give much detail on the current "household clusters":

www.hackneygazette.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-shoot-up-in-hackney-1-6755977

@peonypower

... *That's not from the ONS The author just uses some ONS data*

I meant the data. Not the article.
No thoughts on why all other causes of death have dropped dramatically?

And as for the "it's just flu" argument...nobody actually means that LITERALLY, right? At least I don't think they do. I think they are trying to compare it with other recent recent pandemics in terms of transmission rates and morbidity/mortality, and if that gives us sense of if this is comparable or worse. Why is that such an abhorrent concept to some people?

There is a difference between the 1918 and 1957 flu pandemics and the seasonal endemic flu we have had over the last 30 years or so.

The 1918 flu killed more than WW1

The pandemics were comparable to Covid terms of IFR but the main difference was age group hit.

Article summarising why the reports of reinfection are unlikely

www.nytimes www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/health/covid-antibodies-herd-immunity.html.com/2020/07/22/health/covid-antibodies-herd-immunity.html