Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@peony - The fall in deaths from other reasons is likely to be due in part to people who died with but not from Covid (so the deaths were attributed to Covid but in fact they'd have died anyway from the other cause) And, more recently, from some frail elderly people having died of Covid a few months back so not being around any more to die of something else.

There's possibly also a small fall in accidents (due to lockdown) and some people not dying as a result of routine surgery - the surgery itself is often a risky time, even though overall it saves lives in the longer term, but I think the evidence suggests these are both small in number.

It's still the case though that overall many more people than normal have died this year, and that Covid has been killing at a much higher rate than flu.

Ah thank you- that makes sense then, phew!

I think deaths from accidents at work fell massively and there are actually more of these than we might think ; car accidents fell and the numbers of deaths from fights and stabbings (violent crime fell overall) : all fell during peak. In effect, fewer young people were dying.

@peonypower

... *That's not from the ONS The author just uses some ONS data*

I meant the data. Not the article.
No thoughts on why all other causes of death have dropped dramatically?

And as for the "it's just flu" argument...nobody actually means that LITERALLY, right? At least I don't think they do. I think they are trying to compare it with other recent recent pandemics in terms of transmission rates and morbidity/mortality, and if that gives us sense of if this is comparable or worse. Why is that such an abhorrent concept to some people?

I looked at other articles by the author - who has no scientific background - and he genuinely is pushing the "it's just flu" level but doing so by grossly distorting facts about mortality rates

There are others who want much fewer rules or even disagree with the original lockdown, but have good arguments and accurate facts
I find their povs valuable

Facts matter when judging whether an article or author has any merit

The ONS and others have gone into why deaths from other causes were low

very elderly:
Many thousands of the more frail died earlier from COVID
SD also protects against other diseases which kill them, such as pneumonia & flu

for younger people:

it is generally safer for them to stay home, especially young males and away from Darwinian accidents, whether RTAs or alcohol-related or at work
However, it is obviously no reason to lockdown !

I agree, although sometimes I wonder whether we should just lock down most males when they hit 17 and not let them out until they are about 33!

We have the Return Of The Boy Racer on my estate.

Many of the COVID elderly deaths were avoidable, looking at other countries who managed much better.

Maybe the COVID IFR needs to be calculated separately for countries that act promptly & efficiently vs those that don't, with IFR updates as a country learns better, not just when treatment improves
Strategy and decisions by the authorities really matter with exponential growth of infection.

Whitty on care homes:

“we hadn’t recognised what in retrospect are obvious but were not recognised at the time. Eg, people who were working at multiple homes. People w/o sick leave etc.”

ffs, this was highlighted quite early in the more serious media, e.g. BBC Newsnight frm early April and even in the HoC
but you / the govt must have had fingers in ears

https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1285532089102880768 (BBC newsnight)

I think the fact that careworkers are paid minimum wage and have not been selected for any payrise as a 'reward' (whole other story there obviously) tells you how determined the government is to keep staffing and funding the care sector in the chaotic way it does.

There are some obvious ways to reduce potential deaths A LOT
as they are so concentrated in the very elderly
e.g. full pay for sick workers, ft contracts so staff aren't working at several different care homes and yes - a pay raise

Keeping these deaths down over winter would then give confidence to the rest of the public and also reduce their risk

• reduce the risk of their being crowded out for other ailments if hospitals fill up

As with schools returning ft, these measures need additional budget to do properly
However, with the hundreds of billions that COVID has cost the UK exchequer so far, this extra money would more than pay for itself

Don't just pay people to stay home:
pay to avoid them having to stay home again

The ZOE weekly figures have been updated. 1,884 cases which is a fall from last week's 2103 ( I think). Last week's rise was within confidence intervals so this one is likely to be too (I can't find the details yet) but probably better to have a non-significant fall than a non-significant rise!!!

They also report research ( pre print, not peer reviewed yet ) showing seasonality of symptoms, with worse outcomes at lower temperatures. covid.joinzoe.com/post/weather-covid

Data from multiple reliable sources shows that UK community infection level is v low level and stable

If people are sensible and follow the rules as more things are reopened, then infections can remain low

Adult social care providers:
Independent 1,265,000 78%
Local authority 112,200 7%
Direct payment recipients 145,000 9%
NHS 96,000 6%

I think the fact that careworkers are paid minimum wage and have not been selected for any payrise as a 'reward' (whole other story there obviously) tells you how determined the government is to keep staffing and funding the care sector in the chaotic way it does

The government does not staff the care sector though. See the above. Most care is provided by private or charitable companies. It's currently market driven, lots of jobs available, anyone can do the job, and this is the future (the cost is going to be astromical):

If the adult social care workforce grows proportional to the projected number of people aged 65 and over in the population, then the number of adult social care jobs will increase by 36% (an increase of 580,000 jobs) to around 2.2 million jobs by 2035

Who pays, how do we pay, and how do we keep people safe and well cared for.

"The government does not staff the care sector though"

(Local) government pays for many of the residents though
and it is their squeezing the rates that keeps pay so low - the profit margins are low

With the numbers of frail elderly & dementia increasing, we have choices to make as a society:

e.g.
we can move to dormitories for the less well off - those whom people grumble about as they don't pay care fees -
with the "payers" enjoying their own suites as now - for some this would be just until their money runs out
vs
we can increase taxes to fund the services properly

I have been wondering whether the recent slight uptick in UK case numbers is a result of more testing or slightly higher infection rates. It’s almost impossible to tell from the daily stats, since number of people tested isn’t reported. However today’s test and trace report provides some interesting stats on this:

For w/e 1 July: 320124 tested, 3818 positive
For w/e 8 July: 328415 tested, 3886 positive
For w/e 15 July 355597 tested, 3953 positive

So over the most recent week around 8% more people were tested, but number of confirmed cases went up less than 2%. It looks like the slight uptick is mostly a result of more testing, so again in line with BigChoc’s view that the level is low and stable currently.

Was there any info about this map moving on from week 28?

I can't even remember where I found it now!

phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

But I've now found this which is similarly as much use as a chocolate teapot.

Looks good. But not working?!

covid19.esriuk.com/datasets/dd671698c31741309ff7d45044559fe7_0

[quote NeurotrashWarrior]Was there any info about this map moving on from week 28?

I can't even remember where I found it now!

phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076[/quote]
I've been wondering this too! It's linked from the Gov Beta page.

I was going to ask about your 1st link, Neurotrash which you posted a couple of weeks ago iirc

It's from PHE and looks a useful infection contour map, but we need a bit of background if you can remember how you got there

I think I found it from a new page that was organised, possibly phe? Nightmare says it's linked from the govt beta page.

Oh I've remembered that it was also linked here by someone, bizarrely the sun...

www.thesun.co.uk/news/12142077/new-interactive-map-coronavirus-cases-postcode/

Actually, that link is now showing week 29. But the bbc says there were more cases than listed there for my area in week 29.

The arcgis map only shows areas (MSOAs) with more than 3 cases of COVID.

If the number in the MSOA is 1 or 2, the data is suppressed so the totals in the map will not add up to the consolidated weekly number for the local authority.

The map is useful to monitor outbreaks. For instance, we have seen a spike of cases in Hackney (London) through daily numbers. The map seems to confirm there is indeed an outbreak around Stamford Hill.

Today’s figures

Cases: 769 (last Thursday 642)
Deaths: 53 (66)

North west is back to 227 patients in hospital so assuming the 370 was a typo (that hasn't been corrected). 769 cases today, 53 reported deaths (all settings)