Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Hi everyone! Has sunderland flagged on anyones radar as being a worry? I don't live there, but close by, and my partner works there. Local news is threatening local lockdown due to a doubling in cases. From what I can find it has gone from 7 to 15 in a week? How does that compare to other places that are being identified as potential hotspots? There has been 2 cases (seperate, not related) in my partners workplace in the last two weeks but they seem to have been contained to just those two people so far.

This is the graph for Sunderland coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Sunderland

Unless something has happened in the last day or two that isnt reflected yet in those figures it's not different to most of the country. Cant see why anyone would think that justified local lockdown.

@alreadytaken

This is the graph for Sunderland coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Sunderland

Unless something has happened in the last day or two that isnt reflected yet in those figures it's not different to most of the country. Cant see why anyone would think that justified local lockdown.

Thank you! I didn't think it was justified either but according to the sunderland echo today they are "on a knife edge" and the Tyne Tees news said cases had doubled in sunderland. But when I looked it still looked like low numbers

Rochdale is experiencing some higher levels too but not as high a Blackburn.

The Hackney outbreak is understood locally to be having a particular impact on Hasidic/Charedi families in Stamford Hill - possibly living in large family or extended family groups in what may be overcrowded accommodation.

@meowcatmeow i use this site www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-chiffres-cles-et-evolution-de-la-covid-19-en-france-et-dans-le-monde
There is also a link from that site to the geodes site which is very good for departments as well.

@MarcelineMissouri

Gosh, according worldometer Spain has recorded 2615 new cases today!! That’s nearly twice what it was yesterday

I know - have you seen the new infections in India - OMG it is getting really out of control there.

+47,399 new infections and total of 30,645 deaths.

They had been doing so well at the start.

I am supposed to be going to Spain on August 8th seeing as my tour operator won't let me change my dates...

There was a piece on the news yesterday about India, it was heartbreaking

The hospitals just can't help that many people.

Spain's worrying isn't it? Are we still considered two weeks behind them like we were in Feb/March?

Spain, France, and the UK seem to be spiking.

Not to mention what's happening in USA, Brazil and India.

It seems you can't take your eyes off this thing. Once you relax, it spikes.

Interesting re cases in countries that are spiking again that the number of deaths seems lower. Is this a lag or perhaps a result of other factors like younger patients, better treatments, asymptomatic people being picked up by contract tracing?

Am actually genuinely waiting for the 'help, I'm stuck in Spain and can't get home' posts in a couple of weeks...

older people and the shielding are less likely to be putting themselves in harms way at the moment - so lower deaths. However as we stop shielding them the death rate could easily rise and spike again, because a lot of those shielding were in work and need to return for financial reasons.

We need everyone in masks.

@Newjez

Spain, France, and the UK seem to be spiking.

Not to mention what's happening in USA, Brazil and India.

It seems you can't take your eyes off this thing. Once you relax, it spikes.

Italy seems to be doing ok...... wonder what the difference there is.

@JumpingJackFrost

There was a piece on the news yesterday about India, it was heartbreaking

The hospitals just can't help that many people.

Spain's worrying isn't it? Are we still considered two weeks behind them like we were in Feb/March?

I just did a google about the state of health care in India - my heart is breaking for them - it makes me realise how lucky `I am - how lucky we all are in the west. Those poor people the pain they must be going through. How do you come to terms with that.

Lombardy and New York were incredibly hard hit, both have v low rates despite ease up. Herd immunity ? (anti body rates are 40% in some areas). Or population now cowed and compliant.

I have relatives in Spain was shocked by both the harshness of lockdown and the laxity of the ease up.

I don’t think we can describe the UK as spiking (yet) can we?!? That seems unnecessarily pessimistic. There has been a small rise in cases, much of which can be explained by targeted testing, and our % positive of tests is still falling or at least flat. Don’t think we’ve earned ourselves that label just yet!

Italy seem to be doing very well, they don’t even seem to have had any major blips yet. And Germany looks to be back under control as well.

It doesn't make sense hopeful does it??

Do more brits go to france and spain on holiday? Italy is so nice but pretty expensive.

The masks in shops maks a lot of sense when you think they can remain open even wifh spikes
Pubs/restaurant
Schools
Gyms/swimming pools
Likely to shut.
Zoos etc could remain open too.

Jrob unfortunately there's been lots of media reporting that's factually correct but doesn't actually state data and headlines use catching phrases.

We had this the other week when it was reported my nearest city faced lockdown due to cases doubling. They'd had 1 case the week before and 2 that week!

m.luton.gov.uk/Page/Show/news/Pages/Luton-introduces-further-local-measures-in-fight-against-Covid-19.aspx?redirectToMobile=True

Tighter restrictions for Luton

New York really has opened up that much in door dining museums Etc are still closed and there office workers are in the main working from home. In fact it seems at times that New York City continues to have stricter measures than us places where cases are rising! I think it’s therefore too early to tell if they are not seeing a spike because of extended lockdown measures, herd immunity or just a population that saw hell and will do whatever it takes to not go back there.

The UK does not seem to be spiking

South Africa has reported excess death rise of 60%

The US states that are seeing a massive number of cases seem to be those that reopened too early.
The South & West are being badly hit

Looking at excess death, analyses indicate that the actual death total is now much higher than the official 145,000
However, the age of infection is much lower now and treatments have significantly improved, so death rates are much lower than e.g. in NYC earlier

@IrmaFayLear

BigchocFrenzy - the trouble with raising taxes is that it will be our children feeling the full force of this to pay for those who haven’t had to contribute.

Is it fair for a worker to pay more tax to pay for someone to be ina care home for years, allowing that elderly person to conserve their savings to pass onto their children? That’s one surefire way to ensure an even bigger economic divide.

People with assets do have to use / sell them to pay for care homes, barring about £23k IHT should be raised Both systems should be tightened up, so that nobody is paying to subsidise someone else's inheritance

People without assets can't be left on the street in their old age, any more than we deny schools or the NHS to those unable to pay
Theoretically we could put the indigent elderly in dormitories, so that the paying customers feel they are getting value for money, but I doubt that policy would be a vote-winner.

This crisis has shown us that millions of essential workers are lowpaid and would count as non-contributors if you only look at taxes paid vs public services & benefits received