Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

A little non-statistical nugget for you I learned today. PHE have declared that any care home resident who goes to an outpatient appointment must now isolate for 14 days on return. So, just as healthcare is opening up, they deny it to care home populations..... DM went for an emergency outpatients 4 weeks ago, and there were no restrictions.

Quarantino - the thing that jumps out at me from that article, is that the guy with Covid went to the pub on Saturday evening. By Sunday evening, the pub staff and a bunch of other customers have taken themselves off to be tested. When the tests are negative, they’re all relieved and carry on. But that’s too early isn’t it?

How soon after exposure, might you get a positive test? 48 hours? More? I think you’re not supposed to get a test until you have symptoms.

Big Choc

We can have 90% of normal back, as long as we stick to SD and infections are low.

That is working in Germany, and in most of South East Asia. It appears that SD, when combined with a generally compliant population and excellent test and trace practices which are quick to identify local outbreaks, can allow 80% to 90% of normal. But what the experience of some US states, and both Israel and South Africa shows, is that even if infections rates start very low, just requiring SD is not enough to prevent a severe second wave.

South Africa never realistically implemented social distancing, not in practice, it's impossible for the vast majority of the population.

Sorry this is a newspaper report but about Australia saying Covid-19 cases lose more years of life than the top 3 other conditions. www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/23/australian-coronavirus-victims-lost-more-of-their-expected-lifespan-than-those-dying-of-coronary-heart-disease-dementia-and-stroke

I saw in the latest ONS study that infections are estimated at 1 in 2300 which is a big change from 1 in 3900 last release.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england17july2020

Maxnormal, that’s a fair comment. I read an article recently describing South Africa as fairly unique: 1/3rd of the population live as a first world country, and the other 2/3rds as third world. It went on to say that Covid policies modelled on those of successful European countries were therefore doomed to fail.

NLM20, I wouldn’t put too much weight on those figures. The limited number of positive cases on which those figures are calculated and therefore the wide range of the confidence interval around them is the reason the ONS conclusion is simply that rates have remained relatively unchanged over the period.

If you look at the study, that looks like a false alarm. Instead of using data from the most recent 2 weeks, they have used data for the past 6 weeks. In total, out of over 112,000 individuals tested in the past 6 weeks, just 39 tested positive. It looks like they have responded to falling numbers of people testing positive, by including old data. As the infection rate was higher a month ago than now, this use of a 6 week rather than 2 week gives a higher % positive.

All very confusing, but no need to panic.

AprilLady the lockdown policy has been devastating there tbh. A population where the majority of the population have no financial contingency, and there's almost no financial assistance. People are are literally starving.

What's going on with hospital cases in the North West? The number of 'Patients in Hospital' has gone up from 226 on 21st July to 370 on 22nd July. The new 'Patients Admitted' data is only available up to the 20th but there has clearly been a surge in the last day or two.

Everywhere else looks to be flat or falling.

@clarexbp Blackburn?

jellybabies this puzzles me a lot too. One positive test and people close to them take a test immediately, it comes back negative and they think they are ok. 'Take a test' seems to be the answer to everything but it seems pointless!

I assumed the reason pub staff all took a test straight away if someone tested positive was to check they weren't the cause of the infection, or there isn't already a wider outbreak? But that doesn't make much sense for the case that was reported when someone tested positive only one day after pubs had opened.

@clairexbp - where are you finding the data on hospital admissions? I can only see data up to 9 July

@firefliess, it's here:

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=North%20West

If that doesn't work and just takes you to the landing page, you have to click on the little down arrow next to 'Healthcare in the United Kingdom'' and it then gives an option to look at regions.

@Firefliess

I assumed the reason pub staff all took a test straight away if someone tested positive was to check they weren't the cause of the infection, or there isn't already a wider outbreak? But that doesn't make much sense for the case that was reported when someone tested positive only one day after pubs had opened.

@clairexbp - where are you finding the data on hospital admissions? I can only see data up to 9 July

Go to the beta site, chose hospital admissions and you can filter down by nhs region then North west. Hospital admissions are up to 20th but total cases in hospital is as of 22nd. As Claire says it appears to have shot up for the north west but not sure why? Perhaps a data blip (I hope anyway!)

Yes, I was wondering if it was just a typo, as that is more than a 50% increase in hospital beds overnight, which is not good.

150 admissions in one day would suggest something like 1500 infections per day in the early part of this month (assuming 1 in 10 cases is hospitalised, which is probably conservative). Surely that can't just be Blackburn...?

Thanks both for the link. 150 new cases in a day seems very odd - either a huge outbreak that I would have thought we would have heard about, or an error, or possibly some decision to move a large number of patients from one area to another (did they open up some sort of convalescent hospital in the north west?)

Had another look at the data for the North west - it's definitely either an error or a bunch of patients being moved into the region - because the number of people in hospital has gone up much more in a day than the number of hospital admissions (which includes people already in hospital who are newly diagnosed) The North West admissions data shows no sign at all of a sudden outbreak

Hope you're right Firefliess, but I couldn't see new admission data for the past two days - it only went up to the 20th, and as you say, shows nothing concerning up until then. We will find out when it's updated tomorrow or Friday.

Looking at government dashboard and the graphs for new cases are really confusing. There are 2 labelled as being “cases by date reported” but the second one (separates into 4 nations) is a different shape and makes it look like cases are going up- but the other one doesn’t? Anyone more knowledgeable able to explain please?

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

Could it be Rochdale as well as Blackburn? Rochdale is near to where I live, it's all over local social media as the council are sending leaflets to every household detailing the extra measures they're putting into place. they are at 46 per 100000 I believe, an increase of just over 6 in a week.

Teal - I'm pretty sure we talked about that on the last thread. I think the nation graph initially showed just Pillar 1 and then Pillar 2 were added. It's bonkers that the change isn't marked .

[quote NLM20]I saw in the latest ONS study that infections are estimated at 1 in 2300 which is a big change from 1 in 3900 last release.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england17july2020[/quote]
This is why they say the number has gone up:

‘ To improve the stability of the estimates, we now base our headline estimates on our exploratory modelling results, resulting in slightly higher figures than in the previous bulletin. This is not a change in the rate of people testing positive.’

...
That's not from the ONS
The author just uses some ONS data

I meant the data. Not the article.
No thoughts on why all other causes of death have dropped dramatically?

And as for the "it's just flu" argument...nobody actually means that LITERALLY, right? At least I don't think they do. I think they are trying to compare it with other recent recent pandemics in terms of transmission rates and morbidity/mortality, and if that gives us sense of if this is comparable or worse. Why is that such an abhorrent concept to some people?

I don't think I agree entirely peony. I have come across many posters who mean that quite literally. Yesterday it was 'it's no different from a cold' This is usually followed by FFS with the age of 80 in bold. These are the same people who make sweeping references to Ebola, AIDs and the bubonic plague (when they say whole communities didn't shut down because of the Plague ....) and are often same people who shut down opposing views and mindsets to theirs by ganging up and calling hysteria, scaremongering or that new one 'plandemic' (where did that come from btw?)

There are some who talk about death rates (people may correct me on this but I think current Covid death rates are double that of flue anyway in a typical season?) , this is true but there are plenty who think Covid is 'just flu' I think it is partly to do with where they get their facts and opinions from,and also partly to do with their own personal exposure to it. and their own perception of health, public health and people's responsibilities towards wider community )it's that old Maggie Thatcher quote!) and their own robustness of health/ risk levels.

That's why this thread is helpful : it provides rational facts and stats : which is why I know someone here will be able to provide evidence of death rates, for example.

I also think quite a few of the 'just flu' lot haven't had flu! One of the things in March that made me more cautious than many of my colleagues and friends was my fairly traumatic memory of swine flu!