Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Some of the bad areas are coming down but that doesnt mean they are at a low enough level yet - look at Leicester for improved but still higher than much of the country.

Flintshire and Wrexham dont look to be under control yet coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Flintshire

and I happened to notice Coventry could be on an upward trend, although not in danger of local lockdown yet.

As for locking down at 9pm on the night befor Eid - dithering around (again) is almost as bad as deliberately leaving it to the last minute.

sunshine you are not aware because media does not report it (discuss...) . Big outbreak in nursery in MK with 23 infected adults and children.

Interests me that every time there is a pub related outbreak it's a splash headline! Hey ho.

And I don't think that many nurseries opened, did they? Certainly not all. Although lots of Reception classes.

re the JAMA paediatrics paper:

iirc, they found under-5s carry more of the viral nucleic acid than the other age groups,
but that doesnt necessarily mean they have much of the live virus that can actually infect adults or other kids around them

It is something of concern that needs urgent further investigation,
but when I read it before I didn't think it proved the under-5s were heavy spreaders

Besides, epidemiologists & statisticians would presumably have noticed this before, with kindergardens etc being open for weeks on the continent,
if pre-schoolers transmitted heavily.

The scientific consensus atm is that kids can catch the virus - with a v lower risk than adults of becoming seriously ill -
and they can also spread it, but to a lesser extent than adults,
with the younger the child, the lower the risk to them and to those around them.

Many nurseries and kindgardens opened here (germany) and holiday care for all ages has been running since June.
Some other countries too on the continent, which also locked down and reopened weeks earlier than the UK

Some children and staff have become ill, but in v low numbers,
about what I would expect given staff numbers in the population
and the v low numbers of kids here that have suffered serious effects

I posted numbers for Germany upthread

It all depends on the level of community infection
Our low numbers were with low infection levels

However, if this gets too high, then the situation changes:
it will spread to schools and childcare,
even though these haven't so far been the drivers of outbreaks, merely the collateral damage of outbreaks elsewhere

I don't think that many nurseries opened, did they?

All of them opened round by us, and in my mum's group all the nursery kids went back, which is all over the country. One child I know couldn't because the nursery shut down permanently, but they have a place elsewhere now.

@JulyBreeze

Both my DC (4 and 15 months) have been back at nursery since 1st June as have all the DC of all my friends. Nursery is full and although they are kept in bubbles of 16 and there is additional cleaning there is no social distancing at all either between the children or from staff.

I'm not suggesting there have been no outbreaks at all, but if preschoolers were rampant superspreaders you would have thought there would have been numerous closures? I only have experience of the people I know but none of my friend's DC's nurseries have had any cases or closures.

Just checked, about 10 % of children in Early Years settings were back on 4 June, the "first day back". I know that increased as more schools etc opened, but I don't think by a huge proportion.

By the way - open in UK since 1st June, and actually some nurseries were open throughout for key workers. There have been a few small outbreaks, but nothing major. Lag time for issues is usually about a month, no noticeable impact from just nurseries.

Some nurseries opened in mid June, yes, but I don't think the 10% remotely reflects actual provision as the delay wasn't that big.

@JulyBreeze

That's strange because I don't know anyone whose pre schooler hasn't gone back!

All the private day nurseries I know of have reopened, they are businesses at the end of the day so I don't think they could afford to stay closed.

Maybe you're right, can't find any more firm figures at the moment.

In which case it is strange, you're right!

If young children are rampant superspreaders they and the nursery staff may have been infected back at the start of the epidemic. I certainly know someone who works with young children who was probably infected then. Fortunately they were not ill enough to require hospital care so they were never tested.

Those who work with young children may benefit from having being exposed to other coronaviruses and therefore be more likely to fight it off.

There was a study somewhere about a protective effect on adults as well as young children from very recent other coronavirus infections, but I don't think it has been effectively peer reviewed yet. There has also been research suggesting either recent MMR or specific type of BCG have protective effects. Other research talked about ACE2 receptors that are undeveloped in under 10s. The trouble is that we're still at the start, most research has been clear that young children are less affected, but it's a needle in a haystack to figure out why (maybe the common denominator in those children who ARE affected, someone must be looking at that).

@alreadytaken

If that were the case then wouldn't that also be the case for schools?

@Piggywaspushed

sunshine you are not aware because media does not report it (discuss...) . Big outbreak in nursery in MK with 23 infected adults and children.

Interests me that every time there is a pub related outbreak it's a splash headline! Hey ho.

Which nursery was that? I live in MK and I’m not aware of any outbreaks in a nursery

It was a few weeks ago now. I am not sure it's name was published. I'll have a Google. At the time there was some controversy because of a slightly tone deaf comment from a scientist.

Acorn Day Nursery , Westcroft.

[quote Frazzled2207]@Firefliess
I'm in GM and have not heard about any specific extra testing going on round here (I'm not in Oldham or Rochdale though).
That said people may now be more tested through normal channels due to general local anxiety.[/quote]
I was going to ask if anyone knew about how any increased testing is being done in the 'outbreak'/lockdown areas (if it even is!). Presumably they prioritise hospital workers, then what? Do they target certain groups? Do they just open up testing to anyone that wants it, so it's a self-selecting group? Do they quiz people about potential symptoms - if so, how?

Looking at the 25% growth in the seven day case average for England between 12th July 537 cases average and 29th July figure of 673.

Splitting the UTLAs into three broad groupings for the period and calculating the number of confirmed cases per day for each group, the rolling seven day average, and the equivalent weekly cases per 100,000.

Group A - UTLAs with an equivalent cases per 100,000 >10. 31 LAs, 56% of cases for the period; 11.8 million population. This group could of course be split down further; although the top 4 LAs, all over 40 cases per 100,000, but as a group only have a 4% growth in their 7 day rolling average. For the period the overall group had a 7 day cases per 100,000 rate of 20.7.

Group B - UTLAs with an equivalent cases per 100,000 of 4 or more and less than 10. 61 LAs; 31% of cases for the period; 22.8 million population. 7 day cases per 100,000 of 5.8

Group C - UTLAs with an equivalent cases per 100,000 of less than 4. 57 LAs; 13% of cases; 21.6 million population. 7 day cases per 100,000 of 2.6

All three groups contributed similar percentage rates of growth as per graph. Albeit the highest rate by Group A 27.6%; then Group C 24.1% and Group B 21.8%.

The 7 day moving average to 29th July is 136 cases higher than that for 12th July - so 673 as compared to 537.

Group A - high start point and this group of LAs add 82 of the 136

Group B - adds 36

Group C - adds 18 ; although as the second graph shows cases for this group initially fell after July 12th before starting to climb again.

Which is all very interesting, although not convinced it necessarily tells us anything that we did not know already. still kept me of the

There were 13 infected at the nursery when it was open to key worker children (4 staff, 9 children, from 2 bubbles); the rest of the cases were families including 11 from 2 families. 40% asymptomatic but they were used as a test case by PHE.
Here's an article: www.nurseryworld.co.uk/features/article/how-we-kept-our-nursery-open-through-a-coronavirus-outbreak.

Thanks for that analysis @boys3 It does suggest that (detected) cases are rising slowly in all types of area, not just hotspots. 25% increase in just over two weeks would be an R of just under 1.1 I think. Would mean cases double every 7 weeks - which is very much slower than in March, though still not great.

To those that were asking about increased testing - on one of these threads I think people were talking about letters sent to people within specific postcodes inviting them all to take tests even without symptoms. It was quite localised though. I think they do that too with anything classed as an outbreak - ie two or more people in one setting. They are clearly doing something extra because the number of pillar 2 tests has been rising significantly.

Thanks @MRex that's really interesting, a glimpse of how PHE liaison works.

@Firefliess - or maybe it was trialling the special new 90 minute tests! Odd that the news articles I've seen don't state the inventor and manufacturer, has anyone seen who they are?

I understand a testing centre was opened up in Old Trafford open to anyone. But now I think anyone can get a test by booking onto the existing centers, but I guess they want to make it super easy and convenient where there are v high outbreaks.