Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

I heard about Japan, they agreed to let the fishermen and other boats dock without quarantine and had a raft of infections as a result. I had to give blood this week and my phlebotomist is from the Philippines, she commented that it's getting cold there now so cases are rising, but also commented that they got cases from the boats. So I think maybe the same thing affected multiple countries in Asia. I don't know what countries these boats came from, maybe Indonesia as covid is effectively untracked there?

Ah that's a possible explanation then. And I guess boats that have been at sea for a while could also be superspreader events in themselves before the then go off into the community? I assume many of the seaman are young and possibly quite a number of asymptomatic or minor symptomatic that you wouldn't realise it's covid over a sniffle?

I asked my brother in Japan what he thought was going on and he said most people have pretty much stopped doing all the things they were doing like working from home and avoiding bars.

Thank you so much to everyone who contributes to these threads, your knowledge, analysis and context is appreciated

I wonder what AB tests they used to pick up the staggeringly high levels in the Mumbai slums? ...

Isn't it just that the AB test is pretty good if the number of antibodies is high due to recent high load infections, but it's poor when the antibodies have declined because there's no current infection and it was there months ago. So the slum - recent infections, still virus in the community to remind the body, locked down folk, infection months ago, no virus in the community - not many antibodies left poor ability for the test to identify them.

For any country, 3 factors are key in how they fare with COVID:

• Population density - which drives or hinders spread
• Population age - which drives IFR - age is the dominant risk factor for COVID death
• Government strategy & decisions - which can compensate for the above or make them worse

Mumbai with millions crowded together may indeed have had a massive spread of infections,
far more than Western countries

but, like other developing / emerging countries, India has a much younger average age than developed countries and a far lower % in the country of the very frail elderly

• who likely don't survive at all in Mumbai slums

Mean population age:

28 India

47 Italy
46 Germany
45 Spain
40 UK
38 Ireland

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

Does anyone have any insight into why Italy does not seem to have increasing infections? I do follow some Italian feeds, and I have Italian relatives who post articles, but my Italian is not great. There have been several posts (fairly right wing, Northern League) suggesting that migrants, having been tested positive at high rates, are then being shipped around the country for quarantine. If this is true, they are doing a good job of continuing to suppress the virus.

Well, any statement about migrants (or anything else) by the fascist AfD here is lies, nuts and or Nazi
and when in the UK, I didn't find the ravings of the EDL or Farage bore much resemblance to reality

Quarantine stories re Italian migrants could be true, but would be difficult logistically and anyway we'd need a much more reliable source than the racist right
Refugees / economic migrants are predominantly very young, so they'd have v v low death rates, even if infected and isolated

I'd expect Italy to be mainly at risk from homegrown infection spread as a result of lockdown ending and also tourists coming and Italians returning from hols
i.e. like most other Europen countries

As with the UK though, a far right minority like to scapegoat a small ethnic / religious minority

Italy, as the first country in Europe to be hit, suffered v badly and that has shocked them into developing extensive systems to detect and tackle infections early.
Their Parliament have recently extended the State of Emergency, so most are still taking it seriously, despite the far right fuckwit minority

Good NYT article on Italy's containment success:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-reopening.html

BigChocFrenzy Thanks for the article. Interesting.

I was just reading on the BBC of the rise of cases in the Phillipines after their very strict lockdown. It seems to be impossible to have a consistent strategy which works for all.

744 and 8 deaths. Not as much dip in cases as we'd hope for a Sunday?

744 cases today. Which is 3 down on a week ago despite quite substantial increases in Pillar 1 and 2 testing in the last few weeks.

@MRex

744 and 8 deaths. Not as much dip in cases as we'd hope for a Sunday?

Last Sunday was 747 and the week before that was 726 so today's figures aren't too bad actually.

I'm glad you two feel a bit more positive. I was hoping for a 650, to show some of the higher case areas improving.

I think there's a lot more testing going on in the high rate areas, and the Manchester lockdown has only been since Thursday, so I'd expect identified cases to go up a bit in those areas before they start falling tbh

I don't feel positive particularly, at this point I'm happy not to be horrified by today's case numbers. I'm still hoping that the local lockdowns and mask wearing will show in the figures soon too but maybe it's a bit early for that?

It's probs a bit early to see results from the northern lockdown, many of these tests may predate it. I was worried they would be higher so putting my Pollyanna hat on!

Hope this is not too cheeky, I follow this thread because I appreciate facts and thought this might be a good place to ask: does anyone have any links to what's going on in France by region (specifically Picardy) but in English please?

Full story if interested is that we have a holiday booked (self catering, travel by Eurotunnel) at the end of August, it's fully refundable if we decide to cancel which we are learning towards but interested in where the France cases are. We aren't vulnerable but I don't want to worsen the spread.

Agree figures not too bad today. Hospitalisations continue to be falling which is surprising I think but obviously good.

I have a question relating to the cases of people in hospital specifically Wrexham which local media reporting now has 70 infected in the hospital which is worrying. Wrexham Maelor hospital serves quite a wide area, including neighbouring Flintshire. If someone who lived in Flintshire (like my parents!) got the virus perhaps in hospital would that count as a Flintshire or Wrexham case. Put another way does the test go down for the authority you live or the authority you were tested in. I am trying to figure out if the continued high number of cases in Flintshire might be Flintshire residents in Wrexham hospital. Welsh media very coy about the continued outbreak there although government seems to insist it's under control.

@Firefliess
I'm in GM and have not heard about any specific extra testing going on round here (I'm not in Oldham or Rochdale though).
That said people may now be more tested through normal channels due to general local anxiety.

Here's a map. Growth is strongest in Brittany and Paris at the moment, so fairly close to Picardy. I don't know if there's anything better map-wise as this is quite basic.
www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Coronavirus-which-parts-of-France-are-seeing-more-cases-Interactive-map-as-health-authorities-issue-warnings

Hmmm not sure I'm quite on the same page with today's figures.

Based on the specimen date - this is what the 7 day rolling average in terms of case numbers for England looks like.

Given the old adage lies, damned lies, Powerpoint slides if I get the chance I'll have a look this evening at the components of change between the low achieved a few weeks back and the latest relevant figure - which given how cases feed through use the confirmed specimen date up to a few days ago.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952

• American study of 95 symptomatic children shows that they carried equal or greater viral load to adults, esp the under 5s who had up to 100 times larger.

@JulyBreeze

I find the under 5's thing interesting. Nurseries and pre schools have been open for 2 months and I'm not aware of lots of outbreaks in nurseries? If their viral load is so much higher wouldn't they be hot spots?

UK general hospital admissions oscillating - there were a few days of increases last week

ICU admissions are low and continuing to fall,
but ICU and deaths have the longest time lag after changes in infection rate

The current age of infections has dropped a lot, as it is mostly the younger set partying,
so there would be some days until infections spread to the older and more vulnerable members of the community