Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

This graph I think exemplifies why the Manchester lockdown was so broad and not focussed on specific areas - within the boroughs the spread of cases was actually really broad. I guess that’s more of a worry than a v contained higher density cases.

Ganesh Ranganathan does some nice graphs etc on twitter for those interested. He is where I tend to go to look at analysis of daily figures (including hospitalisation). He's been analysing the weekly positivity figures for tests, pillar 1 is down and pillar 2 up. This has caused a slight uptick in the weekly positivity rate.

mobile.twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1288778497905897473

Oldham and Rochdale both appear to have local testing centres

@Quarantino

The Luton outbreak started with just the postcodes it was localised one with them asking as many people as possible to be tested. Then they opened it up to anyone in the Luton council area. Now they are offering testing to anyone with an LU postcode! Which is a massive area and well outside the council area (and the outbreak was only on one long road!) which spreads over 3 council areas.

Even when the testing started, the numbers were already going back down in Luton and have never come back up so far even with all the extra testing 👍

@MRex
It mentions the manufacturers in this article
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-flu-90-minute-test-winter-fight-covid-19-a9650401.html

@MarcelineMissouri was chatting to my friend in the USA last night whose dad has just tested positive. He had these rapid tests. I didn't know they existed.

Although shockingly even with symptoms when he originally called the phone line to ask for a test he was told he couldn't have one! However the person on the phone was worried about him and as he'd mentioned his chest hurt she told him to emphasise that and get checked out in the ER. His chest is fine but he did have covid but that's what it took for him to get a test!! So are states are clearly trying to drive down their numbers by not testing? He had a cough and a fever!!

The 90 minute tests have existed for a while - the hospital near me (where my friend works) has had one for months. Right from early on they've been able to test patients and staff and get results back within 90 minutes with no problems. They've also used it to do some routine testing of asymptomatic staff.

I think what's been announced today is that they've found a way to mass produce these machines and make hand held ones. And that they won't need specialised staff to run them.

The hospital near me is a major one that does a lot of research. I'm not sure all hospitals have had the same.

Thanks @MarcelineMissouri - looks like a collaboration between Oxford (Nanopore) and Imperial then (DNAnudge), nice to see it's home-grown. I can't see who's doing the at-scale manufacture, I wouldn't have thought either can manage it.

@PrayingandHoping - maybe tests are in short supply in some states. You would think if so that they would announce that only those needing hospital can get a test though, so it does look like hiding.

@MRex maybe! I can't remember what state he lives in, he doesn't live near her. I found it shocking though they won't test those that are symptomatic. At this stage....

So much for trumps "world beating" testing!!!

Rather concerning that there doesn't appear to be any published data on the efficacy of these new tests:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/coronavirus-90-minute-tests-to-be-provided-in-care-homes-and-hospitals

I was going to ask if anyone knew about how any increased testing is being done in the 'outbreak'/lockdown areas (if it even is!).

Friends in some of the areas have said there have been testing on a street by street basis. Self testing kits are dropped to each house that want them (they knock and ask) and they then walk back along street and collect. The kits have a barcode to access results.

Some hospitals with onsite labs have been getting tests done within hours or a day (now/peak of epidemic) anyway. But that would just be a small number of hospitals and probably in areas that always had low cases.

With schools and other coronavirus infections - young children tend to have more of them, older children have already had a fair few. So the impact might be less in secondary school - but quite a few of those probably had people who went skiing and infected others when they came back.

Someone ought to be doing antibody tests on at least a random sample of teachers.

Details of the trials seem to be summarised here, they've been trialled in various hospitals: www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201073/90-minute-covid-19-tests-government-orders/

I have heard that there has been increased testing in Bradford. So, part of the reason for the apparent high rates there might be because there is more testing. I've also heard that the number of people in hospital for Covid in Bradford is still coming down. (I know this is hearsay before anyone asks for sources!)

@whatsthecomingoverthehill that's what I think about the case numbers too going from my experience not living far from Luton.... where everyone and anyone can and is being tested. They are picking up everything which just wasn't happening before

I'm looking at the hospital numbers in the coming weeks. To me... that shows the true picture

Admissions over the last couple of weeks in the NE and Yorkshire:

31-07-2020 5
30-07-2020 11
29-07-2020 16
28-07-2020 6
27-07-2020 8
26-07-2020 15
25-07-2020 11
24-07-2020 9
23-07-2020 15
22-07-2020 8
21-07-2020 9
20-07-2020 6
19-07-2020 6
18-07-2020 20
17-07-2020 5

So 72 last week and 73 the week before. Obviously a huge area so there could be drops in Newcastle and rises in Kirklees for eg. Certainly anecdotally, like you've heard in Bradford, I've heard that Leeds and N Yorks are still quiet.

I saw quite a lengthy interview on the BBC this morning relating to the DNANudge testing device and what I found really exciting is that it can test not just for Covid but for influenza strains so going into the flu season it should be able to confirm whether sick people have Covid or 'just' the flu (or both). It's also just a saliva swab test so easier to get enough DNA for testing and much less invasive than the current swabs.

This strikes me as really good news, to identify early signs of an increase in infection rates from waste water (although I'm sure this has been happening elsewhere in Europe for a while now?)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-53635692

Yeah the Yorkshire and North east stats for admissions I think is mainly the Yorkshire end. I think (from our local media) the North North East (if that makes sense ) so Newcastle, Gateshead, Northumberland etc is very low and then Yorkshire higher with places like Teeside being in the middle.

Praying I’ve read that testing is in short supply in the US and there are also issues on time taken to get results, which could be up to two weeks . I think labs are simply overwhelmed. I believe some states are just advising people with symptoms to isolate and not necessarily get tested because of this*. In addition, many test centres in Florida had to close over the weekend due to the incoming hurricane. So that will impact numbers for the state in a week or so I would expect.

*I say I believe because having surveyed the US media over the last couple of months I’ve realised how utterly partisan it is, it even puts UK msm in the shade! Now I take it all with a pinch of salt.

@sleepwhenidie chatting to another friend in the states just now that's exactly her view now...

So the high numbers of cases is NOT because they are testing sooooo much more than any other country like Trump likes to portray.... they don't even test everyone with symptoms. They are miles behind not infront.

@Fairineouf - I agree the flu test inclusion is great, also because then if it isn't either then doctors should be bouncing all over the next stage of whether a fever is sepsis etc etc. Testing everyone from a flight could then lead to quarantining the whole flight or not, depending on the outcome.
What looked great to me though was the sensitivity is 98%, that's really high. Lots of the tests have quite low sensitivity, which brings in huge risks of people roaming around infectious but thinking they're not.

Do they really think flu is going to be circulating just like normal this year? It seems unlikely to me - surely all the social distancing combined with greater vaccine uptake and low tolerance of anyone turning up at work or school with symptoms is going to give the flu virus a hard time isn't it? I can't see how we could manage to go spreading flu around like normal whilst surpressing Covid.

(Though agree that a test the confirms whether someone has Covid, flu or neither is extremely useful!)

Flu is still circulating now @Firefliess, weirdly enough. Whether it's the version that we've vaccinated against or not I'm not sure. We won't be in lockdown, so it has as much chance of running wild as covid, can obviously make recovery from covid even harder and the goal looks to be a near impossible zero.

938 cases today. That's the most in a while I think