Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Thought that was strangely low.

I'll be interested to see what this week's numbers will be for Australia.

Our cases are lowest for 5 days today?

That hopefully means local lockdowns are working and flare ups aren't starting elsewhere?

I know it's early days but the rate cases have risen Mon - Fri compared to previous weeks (800's compared to 500's) to go back to what we had the previous Saturday feels hopeful?

Am I also right in thinking that although ventilated patients is dropping the admissions have crept up slightly? So therefore the medication is working or people are admitted with more minor symptoms than the peak?

@itsgettingweird

Our cases are lowest for 5 days today?

That hopefully means local lockdowns are working and flare ups aren't starting elsewhere?

I know it's early days but the rate cases have risen Mon - Fri compared to previous weeks (800's compared to 500's) to go back to what we had the previous Saturday feels hopeful?

Am I also right in thinking that although ventilated patients is dropping the admissions have crept up slightly? So therefore the medication is working or people are admitted with more minor symptoms than the peak?

Cases were 763 on 29th. Rolling average of cases announced is steadily up.

BUT so is testing; rolling average of testing is up to 135k a day against 123k a week ago, so overall % positive has been pretty stable for the last few weeks (between 0.54% and 0.59%, up and down).

Hospitalisations (England) 7 day average to yesterday is continuing slowly down, 7 day avg is 73 over 80 a week ago. Wales also down slowly.

As PM, I hereby appoint shoots as Chief Statistics Adviser to my government !
That leaves ONS intact but helps us make sense of the vast amount of data being collected

Seriously, I know SAGE has statisticians, but I suspect the government really needs someone on hand all the time to keep explaining directly to them and giving context to all the stats.

re hospitalisations going down

• we're still seeing that in Germany too, even though cases have been rising for at least 2 weeks. ICU continuing to fall as well

All part of the much lower average age of infection
and hence much fewer serious consequences for those infected

We've seen in the USA that the lower age & improved treatments kept deaths low until new cases rose to nearly 70,000 daily, since when we've seen daily USA deaths trending upwards again

So, even if infections continue to rise across Europe, we may see deaths continue to reduce in the UK and stay low for other countries, for some weeks

In fact, if we see deaths trending upwards again for a couple of weeks, not just the odd day or two, in the UK and / or other European countries, I would be alarmed:

It would mean either exponential infection growth has got out of hand,
or that community infection is sufficiently high that the very elderly and vulnerable can no longer be adequately protected.
Or of course it could mean that the most vulnerable, previously shielded workers, have been chucked into unsafe working conditions

Well that's interesting....
I've just heard that the government have announced the restrictions on Luton have been lifted but Luton Council have decided to keep them in place 🤨🤨

That's not at all confusing!

I feel like I am always asking questions on this thread - are the government worried because they’re surveillance figures have gone up basically (pillar 4). Numbers overall don’t seem massively increased??

Thank you to all the lovely people on here happy to explain stuff!

There has been a four week lag from rising cases to an increase in admissions in France. ( only a small increase but significant as an indicator).

I thought there was always a 4 week lag. Average 5 days from infection to illness. One person infected, 5 days to infectious. Infects 4 people, 5 days to infectious. Each then infect several including mum/dad, 5 days to infectious. Mum/Dad infect gran/grandad, 5 days to illness. Average 10 days from illness to hospital. So 30 days from teenager to hospital rises.

Just a real life observation from France @ mrex, so people can compare to other countries cases if they wish.

Sorry, I did get that. I just seem to recall us discussing it back in March/April... The picture changed in some parts of the world between lack of recording deaths / younger populations / etc. But I think it looks like the pattern for Europe anyway.

Think i have read some comments upthread where people have said no rise in admissions after two weeks of rising cases so just giving data from France. I may have misread though since skim reading.

Cornwall has had a small increase in numbers. Just been looking at the South West - outbreak in Swindon in an Iceland distribution centre with 2 staff already admitted to hospital

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-53610084?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/localnews/2636389-swindon/0&link_location=live-reporting-story" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-53610084?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/localnews/2636389-swindon/0&link_location=live-reporting-story

I think the (new) PM should leave ONS alone, it's the one competent part of this and there are not enough to people to go around.

How long it takes from a young person infection to hospital or even death is not simple. Does the young person live with granny in a multi-generational household or see them at Eid (probably what is driving the government)? Are they careless in the supermarket and infect someone there/ Does the elderly person they have just infected have an underlying condition and the blood clotting kills them of a stroke or heart attack. The time lag can be anything from days to months.

It was realised pretty rapidly that ventilation is not always a great idea with this virus and other means of delivering oxygen (like repurposed Continous Airway Pressure machines) could be better. So people may be on oxygen and getting various types of medical support but not be on a ventilator. Some will be managed on a normal ward that only has Covid patients and some will be in a Covid intensive care unit and you'll be moved out of the intensive unit when you no longer need that.

There are better treatments now, immune systems are better in summer and the clinically vulnerable have only just stopped being shielded and are not back at work so deaths should be a lot lower.

I think the government strategy has been to let the virus run in young people while opening up the economy and if the elderly dont have the sense to keep out of the way that's tough. Then they'd hope that come the winter we have a lot of people with antibodies who wouldnt get the virus again.

It's not much of a strategy and they run the risk of killing off a lot of BAME people. By leaving lockdown to the night before Eid - and pretty late that night - it looks like they actually want to let it run through BAME people, while being able to deny blame by saying they banned gatherings.

Can someone summarise the hindustani thing for me - I dont read pages that force cookies on me.

@alreadytaken

Cornwall has had a small increase in numbers. Just been looking at the South West - outbreak in Swindon in an Iceland distribution centre with 2 staff already admitted to hospital

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-53610084?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/localnews/2636389-swindon/0&link_location=live-reporting-story" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-53610084?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/localnews/2636389-swindon/0&link_location=live-reporting-story

I think the (new) PM should leave ONS alone, it's the one competent part of this and there are not enough to people to go around.

How long it takes from a young person infection to hospital or even death is not simple. Does the young person live with granny in a multi-generational household or see them at Eid (probably what is driving the government)? Are they careless in the supermarket and infect someone there/ Does the elderly person they have just infected have an underlying condition and the blood clotting kills them of a stroke or heart attack. The time lag can be anything from days to months.

It was realised pretty rapidly that ventilation is not always a great idea with this virus and other means of delivering oxygen (like repurposed Continous Airway Pressure machines) could be better. So people may be on oxygen and getting various types of medical support but not be on a ventilator. Some will be managed on a normal ward that only has Covid patients and some will be in a Covid intensive care unit and you'll be moved out of the intensive unit when you no longer need that.

There are better treatments now, immune systems are better in summer and the clinically vulnerable have only just stopped being shielded and are not back at work so deaths should be a lot lower.

And don’t forget the impact that the New medicinal treatments now available - the steroid (Dexamethasone ). As well As the extremely promising anti-viral (Interferon) which I believe is still in trial but I expect that trial is quite wide ranging by now

I think different formulations of interferon might need to be trialled as there isnt a massive amount of the inhaled version available and it is more time consuming to produce. It's definitely being trialled a a treatment given at home to see if it prevents hospital admission. There is a theoretical depression risk, they'll need to consider side effects but that wouldnt stop its use.

Ah, I see the rise in US cases started mid-June - I thought for some reason it was much earlier - and deaths started to rise from early July

Cases rose rapidly from mid June to nearly 80,000 daily on 24 July, but have levelled off / down since then
Deaths currently nearly 1,500 daily and still rising

I find the whole USA thing fascinating. Not in a good way. But whereas all countries have people with various levels of compliance and belief (understanding?) of the seriousness and there are political splits. The USA right to freedom and the arguments over wearing a mask is a real eye opener.

Once this is over it'll be very interesting to also compare compliance of citizens against infection/death rates. I'm not entirely sure how you'd do it quantitively but a qualitative commentary and observational study would be very good at informing future practice. Especially as we know behavioural science has played a big part in the decision and delivery process.

praying it is even more confusing because Luton remains on the government's 'watchlist' or whatever they call it , and now Northampton and Peterborough have been added . Luton will have a lot of Eid celebrations going on. It is probably wiser to proceed with caution...

Yes totally.

By leaving lockdown to the night before Eid - and pretty late that night - it looks like they actually want to let it run through BAME people, while being able to deny blame by saying they banned gatherings

I really don't think this was the case, rather that they were hoping not to have to make a move that was so politically and culturally difficult.

Interesting paper about antibody tests, although it asks more questions than it answers.

apple.news/A_NuBdu4wSqexoHAWzlUjmA

Knowing many people who unexpectedly tested negative, some who had positive PCRs, it rings true. Of course, we're still not sure about the level of protection previous infection confers. I wonder what AB tests they used to pick up the staggeringly high levels in the Mumbai slums? ...

@itsgettingweird - that would be interesting. I don't know how they'd account for the differences between wilfully incompetent message-givers (Trump, Bolsonaro actively discouraging masks) and simple non-compliance (some Spanish bars, most of Mexico), as well as the difference in compliance when cases are high versus low (risk-based compliance). Then there's need-based non-compliance like Peru and India, where support wasn't given to certain groups despite them being told to "lock down", plus lack of refrigeration, so they are constantly forced to go out and therefore not comply.

Also, many people seem to think that Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam all responded quickly and well because they were hit hard by SARS, so they had a big practice run. Does that mean USA will wear masks and comply better during the next pandemic?

Assessment of compliance of different communities within individual countries might provide information that's easier to use, but it risks being very divisive so results would need to be handled very sensitively.

MRex yes. All excellent points re observational study. There is just so many variables in the economic and behavioural approaches alongside medical cafe, population age distribution and population density.

There also seems to be a huge difference in how fast the pandemic has become an epidemic across different countries.

For example we now know UK infections happened by a seeding effect. China's outbreaks all seem to be from one event that's tracked although we've not heard much from them recently.
It'll be interesting to establish why a Japan has had a sudden outbreak again.
Also interesting to establish exactly why despite U.K. starting as a seeding event infections have become more localised within towns and regions. What have some areas almost eradicated cases but others are having huge community outbreaks and transmission.
And I don't mean places of work. Some of the outbreaks are obviously superspreader events from a person in a workplace. This was expected and can be contained much easier. Also contained epidemic events don't have as much effect on the economy.
I agree about USA. An already very divided country with a lot of extreme opposing views it's quite understandable in some ways to see why it's happened - when your leader calls it fake news and doesn't lead by example there will always increase risk. I remember one of the Sage papers on behavioural science stating how important it is to lead by example.

One of the reasons the Cummings debacle was so damaging.