Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

I’m slightly puzzled why the Telegraph names Eden as being at risk of a lockdown when in fact the latest figures showed a reduction from the week before, best I can tell. Would someone look and comment for me please?www.cumbria.gov.uk/elibrary/Content/Internet/535/17941/17942/17945/44042131453.pdf?timestamp=44044113749

Yes the rate is 21/100,000 but it was 36 the week before and the number of new cases is 11. We are a sparsely populated area, although it does include part of the Lake District, which would make the effects of a local lockdown interesting . . .

Sorry link failure. - The figures are linked from the bottom of this page www.cumbria.gov.uk/publichealth/covid19outbreakcontrol.asp

Thanls@BigChocFrenzy, have been following brexit thread for past couple of years and now the Covid threads, what did politicians do pre these issues I wonder.
The threads are a great info source and discussion form. Thanks to all who read and summarise so it’s understandable and give an opinion.

V interesting from ONS on trains, illustrating the extent of business / economic changes

These are profound and some - like far higher WFH & online shopping - will become permanent

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/01/pubs-england-close-control-coronavirus-adviser-graham-medley

Train companies have been effectively renationalised on a temporary basis,
the UK statistics body said on Friday, prompting a dispute between trade unions and private operators over rail ownership.

The coronavirus pandemic and lockdown forced the government to take emergency steps to prop up train companies by assuming the financial risk of rail franchises, after passenger numbers dwindled almost to nothing.

The Office for National Statistics has now written to the Treasury and the Scottish government to inform them of its decision to reclassify train companies as public non-financial corporations in the light of the measures.

Possibly private healthcare too, until the crisis is over

@Dunlurking

I’m slightly puzzled why the Telegraph names Eden as being at risk of a lockdown when in fact the latest figures showed a reduction from the week before, best I can tell. Would someone look and comment for me please?www.cumbria.gov.uk/elibrary/Content/Internet/535/17941/17942/17945/44042131453.pdf?timestamp=44044113749

Yes the rate is 21/100,000 but it was 36 the week before and the number of new cases is 11. We are a sparsely populated area, although it does include part of the Lake District, which would make the effects of a local lockdown interesting . . .

@Dunlurking this is where the numbers become more nuanced.

I listed Eden above on the basis of the most recent (and almost largely complete in terms of confirmed cases feeding through) week. A week's figures of course does not take account of the distribution within the week, and you are quite correct in saying that the Eden cases have been coming down / at zero over the last few days.

Logic would say, unless anything comes out of the wash in the next few daily updates, then Eden's recent surge probably a localised blip, more likely, and hopefully, dealt with.

I do think you'll find though that the DT does not do nuance :)

How the he'll is anyone planning to keep all the kids who will be off, usually through no fault if their own, on top of things? This need to teach and to post work online is going to be a killer, unless we genuinely do start recording and streaming all lessons at the same time as teaching them.

Wrong thread but if anyone has any ideas!

Piggy - we’ve talked a lot in senior management about this, to start we’ll direct to Oak academy and back up with an online platform for the same work our classes have. If we need to - we’ll start recording our actual classes and share with the children who have missed them (the direct teaching part that is) it’s tricky tho isn’t it as they’ll still miss the support as we can’t support them whilst looking after the rest of the class
I’m primary by the way

@Piggywaspushed

Wrong thread but if anyone has any ideas!

@Piggywaspushed wrong thread perhaps, but at least this is an "analysis" thread with some pretty clued up people.

I have THE answer. THE as opposed to the answer to the schools question.

I've not consulted on this but simply made an executive decision.

BigChoc - replace Boris as PM

Patricia - Health Sec or Treasury (need to offer a bit of flexibility, can't be too command and control)

Piggy - you can take the education brief

I'll leave the rest up to BigChoc. Senior posts perhaps though for alreadytaken, MRex, Firefliess to name but three - so all the great offices of state covered as a starter.

Joking aside a number of posters on this thread would do a waaaaay better job.

Good plans both!

I think HM gov is hoping no one overthinks potential level of disruption by just claiming everything will be FINE.

I am sure we will get a new Education Secretary soon. And it won't be me! I expect a bruiser. Heaven help us all.

@boys3. Ha! I'll have Treasury, you should do Health!

We have several contenders for Head of ONS too (OK not a political appointment, I know!)

Why thank you, I'll take Foreign Office. In my first day I'll be cancelling a few more flights and making some quarantine adjustments.

You could have the kids in the classroom as normal and the teacher could be live streaming in from somewhere else in the school

NHS have announced 4 deaths in hospitals for today, lowest i think since very early March.

And 771 cases. Not on the dashboard yet so no detail, but a better number. 767 last Saturday.

@boys3 thank you for thoughts on the Eden figures. Good that we can hope it’s a local blip. I’m not a DT reader but dh pointed out the front page today (shown on BBC website papers’ summary) was naming Eden. Think he must have had his magnifying glass out to see that!

Maybe the toilet while I am cleaning it pertella?

@dunlurking DT probably picked it up from the PHE latest surveillance report that came out yesterday www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

The following local authorities have been included in the watchlist following the weekly Local Action Committee meeting: Blackburn with Darwen, Leicester, Oldham, Bradford, Hyndburn (Lancashire), Rochdale, Pendle (Lancashire), Trafford, Calderdale, Kirklees, Manchester, Bolton, Salford, Burnley (Lancashire), Tameside,
Stockport, Bury, Wigan, Rossendale, Oadby and Wigston (Leicestershire), Luton, Eden (Cumbria), Sandwell, Northampton (Northamptonshire), Peterborough, Rotherham, Wakefield. This is based on a range of indicators and an assessment of local response and plans

Worldometer is saying 32 cases for Germany today. That seems surprisingly low! Will they be adding to it like USA does?

Also new cases in Australia for today are half yesterday. Is that a blip or beginning of a turnaround?

BBC radio news just said Mexico have now overtaken us for position of third highest number of deaths in the world...

@tobee a lot of countries update at intervals. Best to just check nearer the end of the day!

Thanks!

@tobee German daily situation report says 955.

www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-08-01-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile