Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

London is still relatively low overall, but has seen its overall cases per 100,00 more than double over the past month - 2.6 for w/e 28th June as opposed to 6.7 for w/e 26th July. So still a bit below the all England position; and of course increasing from a very low base.

Hackney (incl City Of London) is the biggest current driver of cases. All LBS in terms of the seven days ending 27th Jan; position as compared with all English LAs and cases per 100,000

33 Hackney & Ciy of London 16.50
45 Brent 10.92
56 Hammersmith and Fulham 9.18
63 Barking and Dagenham 8.45
66 Tower Hamlets 8.01
68 Greenwich 7.99
71 Sutton 7.75
72 Bexley 7.65
84 Kensington and Chelsea 7.05
89 Barnet 6.57
96 Hounslow 6.26
99 Havering 6.16
111 Lambeth 5.83
113 Islington 5.77
118 Newham 5.66
120 Lewisham 5.56
125 Southwark 5.33
130 Haringey 5.21
132 Harrow 5.18
135 Wandsworth 5.16
142 Westminster 4.97
144 Redbridge 4.91
148 Ealing 4.68
163 Richmond upon Thames 4.04
169 Hillingdon 3.91
177 Camden 3.70
190 Croydon 3.36
209 Waltham Forest 2.89
215 Kingston upon Thames 2.82
254 Merton 1.94
262 Enfield 1.80
271 Bromley 1.50

@boys3 thank you for replying, I've found it and have a whole new toy to play with now.

Worth saying again that a relatively small number of local authorities account for significant proportion of current confirmed cases in England.

Taking confirmed cases to 27th July, the most recent pretty close to being complete seven day period, 21 LAs (out of 315) had a rate per 100,000 greater than 20; and between them accounted for 38% of cases

Blackburn with Darwen 134 89.51
Leicester 215 60.70
Oldham 130 54.83
Bradford 260 48.17
Pendle 39 42.34
Trafford 97 40.87
Calderdale 73 34.52
Melton 16 31.24
Rochdale 69 31.02
Eden 16 30.05
Swindon 66 29.70
Sandwell 91 27.71
Hyndburn 22 27.15
Manchester 149 26.95
Kirklees 104 23.65
Oxford 33 21.65
Northampton 48 21.37
Salford 55 21.25
Peterborough 42 20.77
Preston 29 20.26
Burnley 18 20.24

A further 15 between 15 and 19.99 cases per 100,000 ; which added to to the 21 LAs earlier account for 50% of weekly cases.

Oadby and Wigston
Bedford
Gravesham
Sheffield
Bassetlaw
Luton
Bury
Wolverhampton
Stockport
West Lancashire
Watford
Hackney & Ciy of London
Tameside
Ashford
Bolton

At the other end of the scale 63 LAs with less than 2 cases per 100,000 over those 7 days. Whilst many are more rural districts / leafy commuter land, this final set also includes a number of quite significant urban areas with higher levels of population density; deprivation, and underlying health issues -

South Tyneside
Merton
North Tyneside
Plymouth
Chesterfield
North East Lincolnshire
Darlington
Richmondshire
North Somerset
Enfield
Wyre
Fareham
Wycombe
Basingstoke and Deane
Rushcliffe
Bracknell Forest
Northumberland
Halton
Bromley
Barrow-in-Furness
Sunderland
Portsmouth
Derbyshire Dales
Guildford
Brentwood
Wellingborough
Selby
Rushmoor
Rother
Spelthorne
Gateshead - less than 1 case per 100,000 from this point
Wyre Forest
North Norfolk
Mendip
North Kesteven
Sedgemoor
Winchester
Gloucester
Broadland
Teignbridge
Redcar and Cleveland
South Norfolk
Isle of Wight
Horsham
East Hertfordshire
King's Lynn and West Norfolk
Somerset West and Taunton
Dorset
Newcastle upon Tyne
East Cambridgeshire - this and remaining all 0 cases
South Hams
Torridge
West Devon
Forest of Dean
Hart
Welwyn Hatfield
West Lindsey
Hambleton
Ryedale
Scarborough
Tamworth
Mole Valley
Redditch

I’ve just seen this on Twitter, it looks hopeful but I’m ready to be told why it’s not right by any of you more knowledgeable people...! Opinions please?

m.hindustantimes.com/analysis/the-infectiousness-of-sars-cov-2/story-QhTBa4DKqkN0cIov3q5dVP_amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Boys3 is that list correlated with where the hospitals are.

boys3 thanks re Cornwall. I suspected that it might be —crap journalism—the case but hadn’t looked into the underlying stats

@Cherrypi - sorry I'm being a bit dim, in what sense do you mean?

The 4 UK nations

Of the 880 new cases in the UK on 31 July:

66 came from Scotland+NI+Wales
814 from England

Of the 120 deaths:

6 came from Wales

114 from England (although at least a few of these may still be over-counted)

Scotland+NI have had zero COVID deaths for 2 weeks+

Estimates of infections for England are 7-10 x higher / million population than for Scotland

Scotland's R is estimated to be 0.6 - 0.9
England's R is around 1

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-11/

It illustrates why the 4 nations need differing strategies, especially NI & Scotland vs England

Teal in the garden.

That article is very interesting. I hope they are right!!

Very interesting article - it does state it’s personal opinion only but sounds fairly well backed in science. I’m no professional at interpreting articles tho!

In our county the town's with hospitals are in the high list and without in the low list. I wondered if that was a common theme?

What is interesting about your list boys is that , whilst moth are NW, there is an interesting little blob (I do know I keep banging on about his!) that is distinctly not North , which is the Peterborough, Northampton, Bedford, Luton area , all pretty much adjoining (with the affluent buffer of Central Beds in between Luton and Bedford seemingly unaffected).

I am not sure how helpful Johnson and co banging on about 'The North' is in terms of messaging, both because those in the NE may be concerned when local stats tell them they are doing well and because those in the South Midlands may be unnecessarily cavalier.

most : not sure where moth came from!!

@boys3 Thanks so much for that list - I’ve got to make some decisions about what I will allow my kids to do (outdoor party invites, possible summer camp activities, indoor play date invites etc) and knowing the local figures really helps.

@Piggywaspushed it's weird that Northampton is at the high end, while Wellingborough (next closest town, 15 mins away) is down in the lowest end.

I think, at the monet, there possibly isn't much interaction between these places?

To take Luton and Bedford as an example , Central Beds lies in between but, until schools return and other things open up, I am not sure how much overlap there is between these communities. People in C Beds are working from home or work within C Beds, or in London . Some in Bedford. But children from Luton do go to school in Central beds, for example and,as fewer people WFH as time goes on, C Beds may see things changing. C Beds I far more affluent, and less densely populated , of course, too.

Anyone have any stats on how China is fairing now?
Last I remember they had put a severe warning out with 126 cases in 5 days in a city with a pop of 22mil. This was the seafood market.

Since then I've seen nothing or heard nothing.

Sorry, on Cornwall again, does anyone know how are tests counted? If a holidaymaker from say, Birmingham, were to go for a test would that be recorded as a test in Cornwall and if positive, a case in Cornwall or would it go down according to home address? I can’t decide what would be better, given that the person will no doubt return home at end of holiday/if ill, but it would be interesting to know.

Reading lots about the increase in positive cases but do not seem to hear about an increase in hospital admissions or deaths. The increase is likely to be as testing has increased massively from being practically non existent at the start in March. I can’t decide in my mind if the virus is effecting people less. Gov seem very worried about a second way. The sync in me wonders if all the local lockdowns are a way to say how they stopped a second wave that may not be coming as they did so bad with first wave

They've improved treatment already as well @Jojojojo55, that might make a difference.

@sleepwhenidie - interesting question, no idea about the answer. Home postcode when you die.

@Cherrypi you give your home post code when booking a test, so the effect you've spotted is just that hospitals are in more urban areas which are going to have higher infection rates anyway.

This also answers the holiday makers question as well, those staying for a week in Cornwall would give their home post code presumably.

If you have a test in hospital I don't know what area that counts as though, but it's a different Testing Pillar.

That’s true @MRex
I have heard purely anecdotally of a couple of cases where people in hdu with a negative test but hold to treat as Covid

It has to be home postcode, or otherwise the rates per 100,000 would make no sense. But if it was running rampant between tourists in Cornwall you'd expect to see the locals picking it up too.

I think the track and trace people at least ought to be able to get some idea where people are catching it, eg if on holiday, as they'll be trying to contact people in those areas.

@Jojojojo55

Reading lots about the increase in positive cases but do not seem to hear about an increase in hospital admissions or deaths. The increase is likely to be as testing has increased massively from being practically non existent at the start in March. I can’t decide in my mind if the virus is effecting people less. Gov seem very worried about a second way. The sync in me wonders if all the local lockdowns are a way to say how they stopped a second wave that may not be coming as they did so bad with first wave

.... As with most other countries, the rise in infections after lockdown ended will be among the young and younger middle-aged

I've posted tables from Germany showing how hospitalisation and death rates have sunk massively as average infection age dropped from about 52 to 37

It's not surprising:
In Germany only 35 people aged 0-40 have died in total, from a population of 82 million
It illustrates that age is the absolute dominant risk factor