Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

A previous poster mentioned that the U.K. would never require quarantine from Ireland. Ireland has required people coming from GB to quarantine for 14 days on arrival since travel restrictions were introduced in lockdown. That requirement is still in force and there is no discussion about easing it. If anything discussions are about supervised quarantine rather than quarantining in your own home/hotel

Sorry fell off thread.

Just been on data dashboard and they are now only posting testing in nations?

@itsgettingweird

Sorry fell off thread.

Just been on data dashboard and they are now only posting testing in nations?

that was always the case, I think? we've never had more local testing data?

Ok ignore me

I clicked on testing and not cases 🤦🏼‍♀️

Still only 1 confirmed case in last 9 days in my town. (Pop 120k)
Previous to that 1 case in 8 days.
Previous to that 6 cases over a week.

There must be something in these hotspots that's causing such a rise? Especially because opening up was a national thing so everything that's open is open in my town as well as up north.

Looks like an upturn in cases to reflect the ONS surveillance. I note that the amount of Pillar 4 (surveillance) testing has gone up loads, particularly today. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of which pillar the positives are.

@cathyandclare

Looks like an upturn in cases to reflect the ONS surveillance. I note that the amount of Pillar 4 (surveillance) testing has gone up loads, particularly today. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of which pillar the positives are.

Of the 846 announced yesterday, 99 were Pillar 1 and 747 were Pillar 2: Pillars 3 and 4 don't feed into the new cases data.

We are in the North East - Like proper north, nearer to Scotland than Bradford and as someone mentioned earlier our rates are fairly low, 1 in our area this week and a handful (2,3) in adjoining areas. It therefore irritates me greatly , although probably irrationally, when Boris announces that "Most of The North" is a hotspot....I'm about 150 miles from the area he is talking about!

For the last couple of weeks, P2 is running at about 85% of new cases.

Thanks Patricia. They must be ramping up the surveillance, which is good news for getting a better understanding. More than 44k tests today.

I'm hoping they are spending time looking at why there are extreme hotspots and will do a more localised continuation of lockdown and open up areas where cases are low. This should help support the economy for a bit.
But have a limit of when to re lockdown.

I also think they should stop people travelling out of hotspots.

Days like today the virus is taken from hotspots to other areas as people travel to distance outside. But touch surfaces are a big risk. This will increase transmission.

But more importantly I hope people start taking this seriously now.
It didn't end when complete lockdown ended.

And everyone who thinks "we'll it won't matter if I ......" is adding to problem.

Because if 67 million people think like that .....

There is very little evidence that surfaces present a risk. The virus only lives for hours on soft surfaces and while it lasts longer on plastic and metal it's easily cleaned off. It is people you need to avoid.

Unfortunately you cant legislate for stupidity. If nurses decide to have an indoor training session and one tests positive for Covid then they have to isolate - that doesnt seem to have caused much problem, though, as at least they are likely to isolate. A 250 person funeral or sweat shops that dont practise social distancing and you get local lockdown.

I don't think it is just hotspots. That data table @boys3 posted on this thread yesterday is quite worrying. It shows that cases are rising in all types of areas, including those with the lowest overall rates. Stopping people travel out of hotspot areas isn't therefore going to work (even if it was practical, which it isn't) I fear that that what they were saying at the press conference today is about right - we reached the limit of contact without cases rising. More of one type of contact (eg schools) will require less of another, or more effective testing and isolating, which I'm hoping they do manage.

Well if people wear masks properly that should have some impact. Unfortunately a lot are not wearing them properly and/or taking them off wrong.

London - Hounslow and Richmond creeping up, wonder if anyone is testing airport staff and cabin staff. Brent, Hammersmith, Kensington, Cambden, Merton, Sutton, Newham, have an extra handful, Barnet, Haringey, Islington, Southwark, Lewisham, Bexley, creeping, Greenwich a clump, Tower Hamlets bad, Hackney worse and Barking growing.

So some fairly general carelessness about - but Hackney is still the worst place. It's been known for some time there is a problem there but still not on top of it.

It can be easy to over interpret very low cases. Richmond had 2 cases in one day in one postcode area and 5 cases another day in a different area, no cases anywhere else; could easily be just two families. Might be holidaymakers or crew coming back and it's worth keeping an eye on for sure, but it isn't remotely like hundreds of cases in some locations.

Clareykb another reason why Hadrian's wall Should be reinstated as the border, eh?!

Yes bizarrely, cases seem to have been steadily declining up this section of the NE coast and inland a bit.

I remember that Newcastle cc was one of the first of 10 pilot areas for test track and trace; I wonder if that's had an impact?

3 in stocksfield I noticed, enough to to make the map blue, as Durham. Ironically barnard castle had a couple of clusters a few weeks ago which seems to be rattling on in Durham.

It would be great to be able to talk about numbers that low nationally.

Just reading the Sun article about Cornwall/SW ‘spike’ with R of over 3.3? I’m wondering if this might be due to the massive increase in numbers (on holiday) in the region rather than indigenous population (who will of course be at increased risk). Just trying to get my head around whether it’s skewed because of the shift in bodies into an area where cases were v low or if it’s a real problem. FWIW I am in Cornwall and shops and restaurants are super strict with masks, hand sanitiser on entrance and looting numbers. Busy outside, obviously.

Quite a few of the areas in the NW experiencing restrictions are included presumably because it is easier geographically. About six of the areas have higher rates per 100000 than the continually overlooked Bedford, which ahs overtaken Luton again (or rather Luton has slipped back down a bit and Bedford has pinged up.

If sparks are spreading and are not stamped out they become flames and then a fire. Richmond has more this week than last as do a number of areas. Hackney is the the major problem but there are also issues in Tower Hamlets and Barking - and if people in the rest of London dont take a bit more care they could see the same thing happening.

The major issues are still in the north west but this virus has the potential to go out of control quickly anywhere where people become complacent over small numbers.

It is stupid to impose the same restrictions on, say, Great Yarmouth and West Devon as on Hackney if you want to keep the economy going. This government has been stupidly over protective in some areas and too slow to act in others.

Tower Hamlets and Hackney are basically the same place in London terms, people move between the two constantly. Barking is slightly further out, but in the same region and linked due to shopping. That whole area needs watching. Honestly, it's not the same as 7 people in 2 mini clusters in Richmond.

Mrex - I didnt say it was, But you cant ignore an increase in numbers in both Richmond and Hounslow either. No London authority has a wall around its border.

Where are you all finding day by day local figures?

I have the BBC tracker but that's weekly.

@sleepwhenidie

Just reading the Sun article about Cornwall/SW ‘spike’ with R of over 3.3? I’m wondering if this might be due to the massive increase in numbers (on holiday) in the region rather than indigenous population (who will of course be at increased risk). Just trying to get my head around whether it’s skewed because of the shift in bodies into an area where cases were v low or if it’s a real problem. FWIW I am in Cornwall and shops and restaurants are super strict with masks, hand sanitiser on entrance and looting numbers. Busy outside, obviously.

I think this is a case of the people who work at the Sun not sure if they can be classed as "journalists" or not not really understanding what they are writing about. As Chris Whitty pointed out in the lunchtime press conference with relatively low case numbers the "R" becomes increasingly irrelevant.

In the seven days to 27th July - using that as beyond that a fair few cases remain to be confirmed - Cornwall, population just over 570,000, had 19 confirmed cases. That is a 3.32 cases per 100,000 residents, less than half that of the overall England rate (approx 8) for that period.

So whilst cases in Cornwall have increased compared to the previous seven days they remain at a pretty low level - 192 English local authority areas have a higher rate per 100,000 for those 7 days.

@ChristmasinJune

Where are you all finding day by day local figures?

I have the BBC tracker but that's weekly.

@ChristmasinJune see coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases you can then select a local authority area with daily cases info

or if rather more serious about things a full csv file can be downloaded from the official site coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ with the complete cases data set going back to end Jan.

@alreadytaken - there is actually very little cross-over travel between Hounslow and Richmond, you'd be surprised. Both tend to mix into other areas; Richmond into the city of London or out to Surrey, Hounslow up to the Greenford part of Ealing, Brent, Harrow; cases are actually rising in those areas too now I look at it, so that indicates transmission yes. You're quite right that it's always useful to keep an eye on any rising numbers, but where cases are low the knowledge of local areas can give other hints.