Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

In fact, Newcastle has had no cases for 9 days now.

Fourth week of rises in France ( is a bit alarming now).
High incidence in the younger age group again ( 15 -44) this appears to be the driver.
As big choc says the increasea are mainly in places that were prevousily high.
Interesting and worryingly this is now translating into other more worrying indicators. Week four has shown the first increase in hospitaliations and the first time the number in intensive has not come down. So a four week lag from increases in cases to having an affect in hosptials. If cases are rising in uk then would watch for this.i am wondering if the UK will put France on the quarantine list ( suprised they arent really).

Things have to be pretty desperate for us to quarantine from France. I think it'll have to happen, but it'll be at a much higher number. Ireland would be never, but thankfully they're fine so far. Belgium should be announced today though, their cases are growing steadily.

Sorry if this has already been posted, can anyone tell me where I can find the lower level borough data? if that makes sense. I live in a bordering borough to GM and wondering what our cases look like.

Here you go @george Select "more on cases" then change UK to LA lower tier and select yours. coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Thanks!

New prevalence info out from the UK Biobank - I know about it as I’m one of the volunteers giving samples each month, but I’ve not read the full report yet.

www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/UKB_SerologyStudy_month1_report.pdf

Thanks @ThroughThoroughThoughTough, it's interesting to see the detail in adolescence. I didn't understand the last bit of the report where they said they adjusted for socio-economic factors yet black and asian people were still more likely to have had covid. Did they include professions as that isn't clear?

@MRex I don’t recall being asked for profession, but as I said, I’ve only read the press release and not yet the report. It’s very much focused on the genetic element, as a concept, from what I know about it. I’m part of it because my mum was picked years ago from a pool of volunteers to be part of a representative UK sample for medical research.

@Mrex Yes that is what the study is saying, that after adjusting for various things including deprivation, BAME groups are still more likely to have had Covid. They haven't adjusted for job role though and there's other evidence that suggests that people working in roles outside the home, including transport and healthcare were disproportionately hit - and we also know that these kind of jobs are more popular for BAME groups overall.

I suspect there are different factors behind the recent rises in the north of England, but the early wave of cases still dwarfs more recent numbers, so it's factors that made people at risk in the early days back in March that matter for this study.

Yeah, originally skiing looked like a covid factor. Then I would guess it was public transport worker, hospital porter/ cleaner/ radiographer (no PPE in those roles usually), then care home resident or worker, more recently big Muslim funeral link... Later in autumn who knows...

Hang on, I missed the dodgy garment factory and meat packing plant worker phase.

And the "watching sports" (Cheltenham and Liverpool/Madrid) phase.

ONS survey is out, it seems to be scheduled for Fridays now. Signs of increasing community spread.

There is now evidence to suggest a slight increase in the number of people in England testing positive on a nose and throat swab in recent weeks.

An estimated 35,700 people (95% credible interval: 23,700 to 53,200) within the community population in England had COVID-19 during the most recent week, from 20 to 26 July 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,500 individuals.

During the most recent week (20 to 26 July 2020), we estimate there were around 0.78 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 4,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 2,200 to 8,100).

That's around double the latest ZOE estimate.

ZOE estimate 2110, so just outside the wide 95% credible interval of 2,200 to 8,100

I’ve just spotted a breaking news on BBC from ONS about the slight increase and that Bojo is briefing at 12noon. Not looking very positive today from where I am!

These are great graphs for statistic lovers : some interesting links between occupation, gender, pay and risk :

autonomy.work/portfolio/jari/

It looks like the ONS surveillance, the case rises, the increases across Europe and EID together precipitated the local restrictions and the postponement of further loosening.

Chris Whitty was a bit depressing. We've reached the level of normality that we can manage without levels increasing. That's in the summer and without schools open. They did say that schools are the priority.

Yes I found that depressing - what on Earth will life be like come winter :(
I’m finding to hard to pick out - are restrictions back because things are already bad or are they pro active (unusual for our government hence why I’m unsure!)

My personal view (and its no more than that!) is that it will be very hard if not impossible to maintain the current level of restrictions for more than another 6 months. I'm just not convinced people will do it.

I think even 6 months is pushing it to be honest.

@MRex

Yeah, originally skiing looked like a covid factor. Then I would guess it was public transport worker, hospital porter/ cleaner/ radiographer (no PPE in those roles usually), then care home resident or worker, more recently big Muslim funeral link... Later in autumn who knows...

I got swine flu as a radiographer with fit tested PPE, you only wore the PPE for known / suspected cases...

They did say that schools are the priority.

Tg

I’ve noticed that the government are using the word Coronavirus now instead of Covid 19.
Does this mean that the tests being carried out are for Coronavirus (all the different strains of it) or is it a test just for Covid 19?

@Yellowbutterfly1 no the test is specifically for Covid-19, otherwise would be entirely pointless.