Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Forgive me butting in, I follow your threads with interest. Anecdotal, but was talking to a friend yesterday who works in a UK prison ( I used to work in the same prison myself).

They have had several cases, but not as many as they feared - but this is largely down to the men being locked in their cells for almost 24 hrs a day. They also eat in their cells and work has stopped. My friend (who works for a charity within the prison) and her collleagues are not allowed in at present.
It seems they are managing to contain things.

The conditions are very poor and overcrowded so I'm amazed to be honest!

[quote AlecTrevelyan006]@sunseekin - lots of interesting stuff here
coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/testing[/quote]
Thanks very much, appreciate it

Looking at the US figures they appear to suddenly be dipping despite few official measures apparently being taken in FL and TX to contain the virus. Result of people finally voluntarily isolating or something to do with the data going directly to the White House rather than CDC?

Thanks for the info, pebble

I've read about prisoners being locked up more - probably inevitable during a pandemic as the ultimate lockdown measure,
so if this is the case, then I can understand that it would keep deaths low

sleep If Biden wins, we might see an enormous spike in January !

@sleepwhenidie

Weekend figures are always lower, but things do seem to have stabilised, with numbers falling a bit in some of the worst affected states. However, with no lockdowns, I don’t think rates will plummet as they need to....

Indeed, Trump, seeing this glimmer of less bad news, is already exhorting states to open back up again! Tosser....

My BIL lives in Alabama. His wife is a travel agent. In discussion with MIL about a planned trip to Germany and the UK in December, they revealed they have NO idea that the US has a global travel ban in place, and they seemed bemused to hear of the high infection rates in neighbouring Florida which they had just visited three weeks after BIL had a (minorish) cancer operation.

Piggy i have family in the US who tell me everything is fine and normal over there

Yes, I have family all over. My DM , in NYC and over 80 seemed to think it was atrocious that basketball had been banned . My DSis is in the police in Philadelphia and they do wear a lot of PPE . Her DW has an immune condition but their 'lockdown' was really brief and now they seem to have lots of people around and lots of sports events. It's just a different mindset. BIL is very pro Trump and believes all the anti vax/anti mask/ 'Chinese Virus'/the Democrats started it stuff...

[quote Derbygerbil]@sleepwhenidie

Weekend figures are always lower, but things do seem to have stabilised, with numbers falling a bit in some of the worst affected states. However, with no lockdowns, I don’t think rates will plummet as they need to....

Indeed, Trump, seeing this glimmer of less bad news, is already exhorting states to open back up again! Tosser....[/quote]
The USA may see a sharp rise in deaths over winter, as the cases probably won't go down much with these (lack of) policies,
while the low summer death rate may not continue

Germany

The RKI (German public health) is sounding warnings and seems worried about a rise in community infection,
as well as more local outbreaks

Deaths remain mostly in low single figures,
but cases > 4 / 100,000 nationally and R0 has been > 1 .0 for several days
Returning holidaymakers and large family events have contributed to a rise in cases, but 2 of the 16 states are responsible for most of this rise

Very effective track & trace system, which hopefully should be able to keep this under control without reimposing any significant national restrictions

There are fewer districts with zero cases:

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/NeuartigesCoronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-07-27-de.pdf??__blob=publicationFile

"In the past few weeks, the number of districts that have not submitted any COVID-19 cases over a period of 7 days has decreased continuously.
In parallel, the COVID-19 incidence has risen in many federal states.
This situation is worrying.

• The cumulative nationwide incidence over the past 7 days was 4.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and thus increased slightly at a low level.
A total of 88 districts transmitted zero cases over the past 7 days.
Moreover, in 236 districts the 7-day-incidence is below 5,0/100,000 inhabitants.
......
• Currently, COVID-19-related outbreaks occur in various settings,
including meat-processing plants, facilities for asylum-seekers and refugees, nursing homes and hospitals,
as well as in context of families or religious events."
....
The increase can be observed in many federal states, but more than 60% of the newly submitted cases are due to increases in North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg.

Re the USA, I have a friend near Seattle and they have just been told school will be online again in September. She seems to feel this is appropriate despite having found homeschooling tough, and she is quite a level headed person. Is it all being taken much more seriously in some states than others?

BicChoc has the source of the outbreaks in those 2 states been identified? I've pointed it out before but Isle of Anglesey had a big spike from a meat factory but virtually no later positive tests (and less than before the outbreak). That was helped by Wales still being more locked down than England and probably by social factors like high community spirit/ sort of area where everyone would know contacts/ mainly rural type area so not much public transport use. So people would have gone to be tested. Still shows what can be done to contain an outbreak and how a workplace outbreak (so in younger people) may not lead to lots of deaths. Low but rising numbers where no-one knows the cause and it is more likely to spread to the elderly take longer to get under control and may actually cause more deaths.

The only people who are going to believe figures coming from the White House are those who would believe anything Trump says. Others may pretend they do because they value the economy more than life. It is slightly less dangerous now that he is at least wearing a mask, but the best thing for America would be if he caught the virus himself.

"has the source of the outbreaks in those 2 states been identified? "

alreadytaken The daily RKI report lists details of the large outbreaks and an overview of the rest,
e.g for the state of Bavaria

"A high 7-day incidence with more than 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants was observed In the Dingolfing- Landau district (Bavaria).
The increase is due to an outbreak among harvest workers of an agricultural company.
In the company with over 450 employees, 174 SARS-CoV-2-infections were identified.
A quarantine was ordered for the entire operation.
The local population (3300 inhabitants) is offered voluntary testing.

A high 7-day incidence with more than 35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants was observed in the district of Hof (Bavaria).

Several events are responsible for this increase:
An outbreak in a large family affectsseveral families in surrounding towns.
Another outbreak is related to a family event, affecting also people of another federal state (Thuringia). ^

Due to the ongoing screening, further cases can be expected.
Further COVID-19 outbreaks continue to be reported in nursing homes and hospitals"

The great majority of new cases still seem to be coming from local outbreaks, which are quickly locked down v locally

Noting the high % of infected people when there is an outbreak, we can see the effect of superspreaders
and also see that a large % of the population is not immune

Looking again at the US figures, Derby weekend figures for cases and deaths yesterday are still nearly half of a week ago, seems too precipitous a drop to be real although maybe a blip. On CDC/White House channeling info, it’s meant to be hospitalisations but I wonder if that in effect means the equivalent of Pillar 1 case numbers are bypassing CDC? Also interesting to see flu death numbers this season in FL and some other states look 4x normal ...sorry, I saw this and then I lost the source! On life over there, a friend has elderly (but fit) parents in Louisiana, they are isolating but it sounds voluntary, they are also Trump supporters!

As ever, the excess death data will tell the true story I guess....

Sorry numbers are not nearly half, but still seems substantial difference

WHO: Not waves and not seasonal

That's the virus itself though
The human immune system is less efficient in very cold & humid conditions

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/world-health-organisation-says-covid-19-pandemic-is-one-big-wave-not-seasonal

GENEVA (REUTERS) - The World Health Organisation (WHO) on Tuesday (July 28) warned against complacency about new coronavirus transmission in the northern hemisphere summer,
saying that this virus did not behave like influenza that tended to follow seasonal trends.

"People are still thinking about seasons.
What we all need to get our heads around is this is a new virus and...this one is behaving differently,"

Dr Margaret Harris told a virtual briefing in Geneva,
urging vigilance in applying measures to slow transmission that is spreading via mass gatherings.

She also warned against thinking in terms of virus waves, saying:
"It's going to be one big wave. It's going to go up and down a bit.
The best thing is to flatten it and turn it into just something lapping at your feet."

‘..turn it into something lapping at your feet’ Somehow manages to make it sound quite pleasant!

Does that mean it will end when the big wave is over then? 😩

Deaths 119 and Cases 581 today. The vast majority of deaths from PHE again, only 12 NHS England Hospital deaths. The ONS report this am ( obviously with the lag) reports that 63% of deaths with Covid were in hospital, which doesn't fit with the figures, even from a few weeks ago.

Cases down a little, but also just under 100K tests done.

Admissions are low (33 on the last reported figures from Sunday) and both numbers of inpatients (868) and ventilated patients (78) remain reassuringly low.

German weekly report:

Average age of infection remains in the mid / upper 30s,
hence much lower death rate of 0.7% compared to the peak and
lower hospitalisation rate of about 10%

Cases for the last weeks, cw 29 & 30, are omitted, because too soon for outcomes to be known
However, confirmed cases have increased by 54% in those 2 weeks - this includes scanning of outbreak contacts:

cw 29 ..... 2,387
cw 30 ..... 2,966
cw 31 ..... 3,675

German Schools, kindergardens, camps, children's homes etc

So far,v v v low risk to kids and low risk to staff:

Schools were open pt from 4 May to late June (date depending on individual state holidays)
Childcare resumed as normal (mostly) from 2 June and is continuing through summer vacation

Kids:
Cases = 3,962
Hospitalised = 81
Dead = 1
Recovered = 3,600 approx

Staff:
Cases = 2,894
Hospitalised = 153
Dead = 7
Recovered = 2,800 approx