Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

This is in a country of 83 million

I am exercising my old German A Level here and don't understand how the top bit is children and the bottom bit staff? Although I can see the asterisk then leads us to something about age.

Those headings appear in other categories too?

I am not sure how reassuring it is that that is more than people working in meatpacking and a higher proportion of deaths to cases, since I thought that was acknowledged to be a big risk and all that is while schools are mainly pert time or in some kind of recess. I also read that the Germans have been far more cautious and sensible than our plans suggest our government will be with schools.

But I will try to look on the bright side!!

Disclaimer : I may have misunderstood both the German and the maths!

@BigChocFrenzy any chance Germany could take over reporting here? the government loves to outsource things after all.

Oh, I think I have figured out the German now . So for the hospitals the top one is patients and the bottom one death in service and then under schools is things like prisons and again the same divide?

Why does that one child go under the school heading? has only one child died in Germany at all?

To be fair though, if an educational worker had contracted the virus at school on 4th May, they would have died, on average, 18 days later. The comparison is not with 83 million, but with the 853 deaths that occurred after that date. Given the age distribution of teachers, this does not seem like a particularly low figure.

For England and based on specimen date the most recent completed week w/e 26th July has passed 4,000 cases, and likely as the reporting for that week plays out over the next few days we may well see the eventual total getting close to that w/e 28th June - albeit numbers are still far, far lower than even 6-8 wks ago.

A lot of UTLAs are however maintaining case rates below 4.00 per 100,000 people so the localised spikes are largely driving the increased numbers. However going glass half empty for a moment, an increasing number of LAs, a number of London Boroughs in particular, whilst still relatively low recorded in w/e 26th July their highest weekly cases numbers since end May.

@Piggywaspushed

Oh, I think I have figured out the German now . So for the hospitals the top one is patients and the bottom one death in service and then under schools is things like prisons and again the same divide?

Why does that one child go under the school heading? has only one child died in Germany at all?

..... I posted the table of deaths by age upthread

In total, 3 children / teens aged 0-19 have died
Presumably the other 2 were at home or hospital - qute likely they all had serious health conditions

Re bigchocfrenzy’s post about WHO saying this virus doesn’t tend to follow seasonal trends. So this is promising news???? It means it might not automatically get worse in winter? I can’t see how it wouldn’t with more people inside in unventilated warm dry areas though...Are there other countries that have had Covid through conditions like our winter to compare to?

Also re schools, has any other country successfully brought back all students full time in class sizes and conditions like ours yet? Is there any comparison of us to another similar country and whether it’s been ok for them? I know you all give reassuring stats about children and spreading at schools, but it’s secondary schools and school staff I’m thinking of as I’m a teacher due back from mat leave in sept.

@nellodee

To be fair though, if an educational worker had contracted the virus at school on 4th May, they would have died, on average, 18 days later. The comparison is not with 83 million, but with the 853 deaths that occurred after that date. Given the age distribution of teachers, this does not seem like a particularly low figure.

The numbers of cases and deaths are low, imo

The 7 staff deaths include not just teachers but all staff in all establishments - schools, nurseries, kindergardens, childcare, children's care homes, holiday camps
and childcare is still running

iirc the total staff deaths in the UK for all staff is about 70, so 10 x higher
and I don't know if that includes all the other institutions
but I presume that was the result of far more confirmed cases - anyone know the figure ?

The 70 ish deaths go back to week 1 I believe. Not sure how many there have been since lockdown. That's the trouble : it is very hard to measure whilst schools are to all intents and purposes closed or running on half openings. Unfortunately, I think September will be the big statistical experiment in quite a few countries.

I think we need to find countries where the holidays haven't begun there reastie so we need to look to Australia. But , of course, their infection rate was very low. They have had quite a few school outbreaks and closures but not with any awful consequences thus far (health wise at least)

@BigChocFrenzy

German Schools, kindergardens, camps, children's homes etc

So far,v v v low risk to kids and low risk to staff:

Schools were open pt from 4 May to late June (date depending on individual state holidays)
Childcare resumed as normal (mostly) from 2 June and is continuing through summer vacation

Kids:
Cases = 3,962
Hospitalised = 81
Dead = 1
Recovered = 3,600 approx

Staff:
Cases = 2,894
Hospitalised = 153
Dead = 7
Recovered = 2,800 approx

I don’t think it’s low risk, staff and children have lost their lives or ended up in hospital.

@cathyandclare

Deaths 119 and Cases 581 today. The vast majority of deaths from PHE again, only 12 NHS England Hospital deaths. The ONS report this am ( obviously with the lag) reports that 63% of deaths with Covid were in hospital, which doesn't fit with the figures, even from a few weeks ago.

Cases down a little, but also just under 100K tests done.

I don't think once we interrogate the data that we can say cases are down.

The "daily" figure covers a number of mainly recent days, and has pretty much no relevance to what actually happened the day before in terms of confirmed cases.

Last Tuesday the daily figure was 444 with 399 of these in England. However the actual confirmed cases in England the day before (eg Monday 20th July) is, so far, 656.

This does work both ways. On July 18th the daily figure on the dashboard was 827 with 796 of these in England - cue panic all round. The actual number of confirmed cases for the prior day in England is 535, again a huge difference.

Today's published UK figure is 581, so already significantly higher than the equivalent from last week. 547 / 581 are in England, and in terms of actual confirmed case date they are:

27th July - 58 cases
26th July - 315 cases
25th July - 46 cases
24th July - 59 cases
23rd July - 34 cases
22nd July - 20 cases
21st July - 9 cases
20th July - 4 cases
1-19th July - 3 cases
and then various daily adjustments between 3rd March and 30th June giving a net reduction of 1 case

The daily beta dashboard is I think misleading in this respect.

In terms of the "daily" case number shown on the dashboard I think the only meaningful comparison is with the equivalent figure in each previous week. It's a data and analysis thread so happy to hear contrary views. :)

In Berlin schools go back on 10th August - we'll see what happens ...

And in Scotland most schools are back 11/12th August

"I don’t think it’s low risk, staff and children have lost their lives or ended up in hospital"

It's unrealistic to require no deaths and even no hospitalisations beore ft school

imo, sufficiently low risk would be say doubling the usual risk of death -
even without COVID kids and staff die of other things, but the risk is tiny, so doubling it still keeps it acceptable

However, we all have different levels of risk we accept for different things

Can I just ask about the figures for certain professions. People who die have their professions or areas of work recorded. But presumably we would expect numbers of them to appear in these figures because people can pick cv up from all sorts of places. So for the German figures for example, are they saying that 7 teachers have died after contracting cv from being in school? Or is their occupation a side note and we do not known where they caught it from. Just because particularly with teachers there seems to be an automatic assumption that they caught it from work when this may not actually always be the case?

No one knows where anyone catches it, do they? When numbers hit a certain amount I guess it becomes statistically significant. So, for example, the fact that many transport workers have died does rather suggest they caught it via work, or many of them did.

If someone in my family catches it after early September . barring some other oddity, it will be from school settings : two teacher household with a child in school. No family members to visit nearby, no social events or clubs attended , other than those associated with school.I don't fancy becoming a statistical experiment , though . A bonkers part of the DfE guidelines suggests that teachers stay away form colleagues from other schools, and that children do too! Not sure they have thought that bit through very much!!

I'm not sure, Marcelline

Normally, unless there is a particular tracked superspreader event, it is very difficult to be sure where someone picked up an infection.

Those 7 include not just teachers, but staff at kindergardens. nurseries, other childcare, children's homes, holiday camps

There are nearly 700,000 teachers total in Germany, about ¼ million aged 50+, about 90,000 aged 60+
I don't know how many other staff and childcare staff

There are about 65 million people aged under 65
So something over 1% of the population in total are education or childcare staff

There were 439 deaths aged under 60 in the whole population of 83 million and 881 aged 60-69

7 deaths from the 439 deaths aged under 60 plus whatever portion of the 881 are 60-65
looks very roughly about average risk

So I think those figures weren't tracked, just figures for all teachers and other staff, who may have been infected anywhere

The figures would be much lower than for the UK, because lockdown including of schools was much earlier in the epidemic,
going by the number of deaths when the lockdowns of each country happened

Thanks, just have to wait and see and cross fingers. I can’t work out if I’m cwtastrophising or realistic about schools going back and being a nightmare, not just the potential Covid increase and staff being at risk with no PPE and not Covid secure working environments as things stand, but also about the amount of time off school children and work parents will take to get children tested and wait results and all that. I also think there will be a limit to how much understanding employers will show to people taking multiple days off every time they or their child has a cough or fever. An instant test result process would be a game changer. I wonder if anywhere is on the cusp or creating one.

The stop-start for colds etc could be a nightmare, even though they should be lower than usual with masks and SD

Hopefully the saliva test will be rolled out - multiple deep swab tests would be a nightmare for many kids
Even then, I think it can take a few days before there is enough virus to be detectable

Question:

Have I got this wrong / out of date report?
After a positive test, the child must isolate for 7 days and the rest of the household for 14 days
If that's still true ....

==> how are some children expected to get to school in the 2nd week ?

That's if they are not old enough to walk / cycle / bus themselves,
or a car is the only practical means.

Find a willing friend or neighbour to take them in ?
Some people won't know anyone suitable / available
so schools will have to be understanding about the 2nd week.

Anecdata:
I was talking to a bus driver - they usually get everything going because people have to enter at the front and pass them or even buy tickets.
Since covid measures started they have closed of the driver's area so no contact with the passengers. They've never been that healthy.