Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Preprint suggesting that contact with small children may be associated with milder Covid.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20157149v1

Good news for teachers?

I mean it makes some kind of sense as teachers in general have pretty solid immune systems. Only good news for those who teach the under 10s though!

I think it was one one of these threads where someone posted some research into which measures had the biggest effect on reducing Covid spread. It might have been from South Korea but I can't find it now. Does anyone remember? Could they link it?

7 deaths today and 685 cases

First single figure death rate I think.... even allowing g for the Monday factor that's got to be good news

Cases still higher than the last couple of weeks, hopefully down to increased testing.

747 UK cases from staging website? Can't see 685?

Ah I see - 685 on original site. Staging website appears to have updated deaths not cases!

I know it may not be statistically significant yet (or at all!) but nice to see cases down a little bit.

"I know it may not be statistically significant yet (or at all!) but nice to see cases down a little bit."

Aren't cases up on last Monday? 580 last Monday so rolling 7 day average is up again.

Cases are down a bit today compared to the last few days is what I meant. As I said, it might not be significant but nice to see.

Yeah good news for teachers but I was referring to symptoms in that most children (and adults) have cold symptoms over autumn and most just keep coming in as it’s mild. Current guidance means we’ll not be able to keep any chn and adults in school at the first sign of a sniff!

Nice to see single figures even if it doesn’t mean anything really, surely it’s good somehow somewhere?!

i think the low deaths means a lot

the total number of number of (national) cases is becoming less important - we are testing loads more and there are wide variations geographically with lots more asymptomatic and milder cases being picked up, so you need to really drill down into the figures for them to be meaningful

so imho low numbers of deaths, and low numbers of hospital admissions, provides a better picture of where we are with the virus

I'd like the govt to get back to reminding the public that most people who catch the virus will suffer no, or very mild symptoms.

"I'd like the govt to get back to reminding the public that most people who catch the virus will suffer no, or very mild symptoms."

It would confuse the main message:
The government and PHE are obviously desperate to avoid a "2nd wave" and a large number of local lockdowns hammering the economy, or even the worst case of a national lockdown

Hence the sudden quarantine for Spain and warnings it may be applied for more countries,
BJ's campaign telling people to lose weight to reduce their COVID risk

What they should be doing is reassuring parents that kids are at v v low risk indeed, so that we don't see a significant number keeping their kids away from school

Of course that won't address the issue of risk to staff & family members, but it could calm things down

I may be over-optimistic, but I don't expect a large increase in cases from the summer holidays
However, imo winter holidays abroad should be stopped unless COVID cases are still really low by then

Macabre: 8 inmates die with suspected COVID-19 on California's death row

No totals for those on death row for the whole USA

One California prison has had 2,125 confirmed COVID-19 cases from a population of 3,497.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eight-inmates-die-with-suspected-covid-19-on-californias-death-row-12035192

Aren't cases up on last Monday? 580 last Monday so rolling 7 day average is up again.

Yes weekly averages have crept up the last two weeks, but death rates are still falling as are hospital admissions and icu beds, so hopefully the slight rise isn't too significant .... yet!

For some reason this thread isn't showing up on the "Coronavirus" thread page. Anyone else found this?

Death rates should be behind the case rate I would have thought. Because the majority of the people I know of that died would have been a positive case 7-26 days before their death, and I think it also takes time before they're registered as a covid death for statistics.

@AlecTrevelyan006

i think the low deaths means a lot

the total number of number of (national) cases is becoming less important - we are testing loads more and there are wide variations geographically with lots more asymptomatic and milder cases being picked up, so you need to really drill down into the figures for them to be meaningful

so imho low numbers of deaths, and low numbers of hospital admissions, provides a better picture of where we are with the virus

I'd like the govt to get back to reminding the public that most people who catch the virus will suffer no, or very mild symptoms.

Sorry to be a pest - can you point me in the direction of stats for the number of tests carried out please? Would love to see the data as percentages rather than raw data. Thanks very much if it’s possible.

Gosh those Californian prison infection rates are scary, around 50%! I'd imagine conditions in Californian prisons are more reasonable than in some states/ other Western countries..... Iraq released1000s early on didn't they? Do we know of rates in other prison populations? Or maybe that's suppressed stats at present and we won't hear until later.....

I'm sure the infection age has fallen significantly in the UK, like it has in other countries after ending lockdown

As long as this age remains lower than before, this will significantly lower the death rate

This age depends quite a lot on the community infection level,
as it is only possible to really protect the very elderly when this is low

You can check out the positive test figures for your own local area here coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Tower%20Hamlets

(that's not my area, just one I want to quote). Some places dont do, or dont report, cases at the weekend so dont get excited by a drop on Monday. However many authorities are bumping along with virtually no cases ( I might holiday in Great Yarmouth or North Devon). Some have quite a large spike, that might be a nursing home or meat factory (look at Isle of Anglesey for an outbreak rapidly controlled). Some - like Tower Hamlets - may have ongoing problems, perhaps because the contacts of the first little bump turn up 7 days later.

The North West region is not looking great.

July UK prisons are not great, but the conditions are vastly better than in US prisons, which are intentionally punitive
So I'd expect a lower % of cases in the UK and in other European countries too

The Uk has about 80,000 prisoners and so far no signs of a major outbreak - containment seems to have worked
I can't find more recent figures than this:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8892/

As of 12 May, 404 cases had been confirmed amongst prisoners. 21 prisoners and 7 members of prison staff had died.

prisons are a category in the outbreak figures - but outbreaks should be be containable because you can quarantine people.

@sunseekin - lots of interesting stuff here
coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/testing