Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

and same approach for districts within two tier county areas. Top and second quartiles

and third and lowest quartile for districts and before anyone shouts I know the district split 50-50-50-42 is not the exact quartiles

....
I agree that hospital admissions are a v strong indicator of trends
but the deaths still seem higher than expected, even trying to compensate for what I'd class as a stupid PHE counting cockup

Has anyone heard when the fully updated UK deaths will be issued, with the 28-day cutoff ?

I think in places like Leicester and Luton they were just encouraging everyone to get tested whether they had symptoms or not so they may well be catching more asymptomatic cases?

If hospitalisations are falling deaths must be falling surely? If the data isn't showing that then something must be wrong somewhere.

@Sunshinegirl82 yes anyone who lives under Luton council can now get a test I gather. And they are being taken up on it.... they are having to arrange more sessions

sunshine UK deaths are falling, so the trend fits to the hospital falls
It's just that the absolute number of deaths is still higher than expected for the number of reported cases

Realistically the PHE issue of anyone with a positive test ever being counted as a COVID death will skew the deaths data more as time goes by so until that has been resolved I'm not sure how much we can rely on what's coming through.

France news.
Last three weeks show increases for many indicators.
Cases rising 4397 wk 29 from 3910 wk 29 third weekly increase in a row.
Rate of asymptomatic cases 54% for those tested positive from 62% previous week
Rate of asymptomatic cases64% For those tested from 72 % the previous week.
( this is said to indicate i think that the rise is not through more testing and is therefore an indicator of a potential problem ( i wont pretend to understand this)
Increase in regions on alert - 7 -Rate of alert appears to be more than 10 cases per 100,000
Total deaths for week 29 - 94 ( 182 previous week)
Softer measures, reduction on social distancing measures reported ( i would testify to this)
I would be interested to know what rate constitutes an alert in the uk? Seems to be more than 10 cases per 100,000 in France.

www.santepubliquefrance.fr/content/download/269451/document_file/COVID19_PE-20200723.pdf
Have drunk rosė so forgive me if not coherent!

What is the rationale for quarantine rather than test, even if asymptomatic?

I'm thinking about those returning from Spain, but relates to anyone who has best to quarantine. Instead of 14 dats/quarantine, why couldn't it be test straight away and quarantine unless negative test result? (Which has been 1-2 days ime)

Hi false negative rate and if newly infected it prob wouldn't show up anyway

@FATEdestiny

As I understand it it's due to the incubation period. You could be infected and incubating the virus but test negative so testing alone isn't reliable.

@FATEdestiny I think because it may take longer to actually develop cv enough to test positive? That’s the 2-14 days incubation period. So you could get a test eg 3 days after being exposed and be negative but still develop it a few days later.

They could test people in quarantine on (e.g.) day 5 and day 7 after their return... if both tests negative, they could be released from quarantine.

Just a minute, but surely advice elsewhere, eg in schools, is to isolate until negative test result received, then you can return to school/work as long as no longer have symptoms??

If you have symptoms you isolate and get a test. If negative and symptoms have gone you can go back to work/school.

If you have been in contact with someone who has tested positive or are returning from an area deemed to be higher risk you have to isolate for the full 14 days due to the incubation period. If you develop symptoms during that 14 days you should get tested.

@JulyBreeze

Just a minute, but surely advice elsewhere, eg in schools, is to isolate until negative test result received, then you can return to school/work as long as no longer have symptoms??

Quarantine with no test for people who have been exposed to covid (or potentially so) but aren't symptomatic. A negative test in this case doesn't tell you much as you could still be incubating.

If you are in school/work and come down with symptoms (without potential exposure to covid) you can go back to school/work with a negative test as the overwhelming chances you have something else that gives you similar symptoms (as lots of things cause temps/coughs). I would expect people to be well in these situations before they go back but they shouldn't need to isolate for 7 days and close contacts shouldn't need to isolate for 14 if it's not covid.

@Firefliess

I'm sure there are more young people catching it now than there were back in March.

At its peak in March, 100+ times people were being infected every day than now. Far more people of every age were catching it. Proportionally you’re probably right that more young people are being infected, but not in absolute terms, not by a long way.

Following on from that, if you are quarantined due to potential exposure, come down with symptoms but test negative I would expect you to be advised still to isolate as you could still be incubating.

@Derby Yes I meant as a proportion - not in absolute terms. Ie more of everyone was infected back in March. But the young are now socialising more than the old.

Littlebelina

If you are in school/work and come down with symptoms (without potential exposure to covid) you can go back to school/work with a negative test as the overwhelming chances you have something else that gives you similar symptoms (as lots of things cause temps/coughs). I would expect people to be well in these situations before they go back but they shouldn't need to isolate for 7 days and close contacts shouldn't need to isolate for 14 if it's not covid.

thank you for this ,and I think I follow it .

It is going to be tricky in schools I think ,with covid presenting with a variety of symptoms ,some gastro ,some asymptomatic "coming down with symptoms without potential exposure " is going to be impossible to judge .

Does anyone know and could post a link to a handy flow chart thingy which takes you through the steps of developing symptoms ,getting tested ,going back or staying in ?

It is going to be difficult to judge, however given community cases are (currently) low, the chances are very high if you come down with symptoms, haven't been in contact with a known case and test negative, that is it not covid and it's just another bug. If you do come down with symptoms, you should isolate until a negative test to be safe but all the usual bugs will still circulate (although perhaps less than usual) so whole families isolating for 14 days after a negative test without known exposure or having been to a risk area is disproportionate to the current risk.

I think my use of potential exposure was a little misleading (was my bed time). I meant in contact with a known case or having been to a high risk area

I agree with you Littlebelina I can't find the right words but I think we all have to do the best we can ,make individual assessments and realise that there isn't a simple straightforward way of dealing with this .

I think this has been asked before but are there stats /studies/data on cases linked to schools ? Or the same showing an absence of cases linked to schools ?

"Does anyone know and could post a link to a handy flow chart thingy which takes you through the steps of developing symptoms ,getting tested ,going back or staying in ?"

Peridito I think this is the latest from PHE:

I really don’t know what we’ll do in schools from September (primary school teacher)
If they show symptoms then we’ll be sending the entire school home come October as everyone has cold or gastric symptoms around then anyway! The guidance hasn’t been clear on how to filter those through either